EFFECT OF AGE ON AMATEUR STARS SUCCEEDING AS PROS

[Best Coast]

Thanks to Lackeos for inspiring this thread by pointing out in the "Egor Mekhontsev" thread that a big reason for Mekhontsev's lack of pro success is the fact that he was already 27 when he won Olympic gold.

http://boxrec.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=202847

I did a quick list that seems to confirm the age factor effecting the pro success of amateur stars.

Ali=18
Floyd=19
Roy Jones=19
Frazier=20
Ward=20
Klitschko=20
Holyfield-21
Joshua=22
Lewis=23
Mercer=27
Mekhontsev=27
Fraudley Harrison=28

Any other examples anyone has to either confirm or refute the age factor, feel free to add them...

[Noxy]

Sven Ottke was about 30 when he turned over. It didn't hurt him. Athletes are performing when they're older now, it's not as unusual as it used to be

[crusader]

I imagine that most amateur stars who turned pro did so in their late teens and early twenties, so that group will always have a bigger list of top guys in it.

Keep in mind that there are also plenty of fighters from the 'not old' group of amateur standouts who didn't do anything major as pros; this includes, but is certainly not limited to, names like Robert Wangila, Rhoshii Wells, Chris Johnson, Shawn O'Sullivan, Kenny Gould, and Terrence Cauthen. Further, many of the amateur stars who turned pro late were already world class amateurs by their early twenties, so it's not just the case that they were feasting on much younger and less experienced opposition.

I think age is a factor though. As I mentioned in the Egor thread, the older guys spend less of their physical primes as pros, and unless they've moved very fast a good chunk of that can be wasted on lacklustre opposition. I think the advanced age and wear from all their amateur fights means they've generally given away more of themselves prior to turning pro. Then there's the possibility that spending more time as an amateur makes it harder to adjust to the differences of the pro game.

It may also be that the fighters who show great pro potential as amateurs have more lucrative options to turn pro, and hence are induced to join the paid ranks more quickly.

[Best Coast]

Sven Ottke was about 30 when he turned over. It didn't hurt him. Athletes are performing when they're older now, it's not as unusual as it used to be

I didnt say athletes arent performing when they are older now. I'm talking specifically about late starts in the pros definitely seem to hinder the success of amateur boxing stars making the move at an advanced age. Sven was 29 when he turned pro but I beg to differ that it didnt hinder his success as a pro. Although he went 34-0 and had many IBF title defenses his detractors say he was one of the most protected world champs in recent history, which is clear from his record.

http://boxrec.com/boxer/7203

That's why he's not in the world HOF despite being eligible for many years, although maybe one day he'll make the European Boxing HOF (if there is such a thing):

http://www.ibhof.com/pages/about/inductees/modern.html

[Best Coast]

I imagine that most amateur stars who turned pro did so in their late teens and early twenties, so that group will always have a bigger list of top guys in it.

Keep in mind that there are also plenty of fighters from the 'not old' group of amateur standouts who didn't do anything major as pros; this includes, but is certainly not limited to, names like Robert Wangila, Rhoshii Wells, Chris Johnson, Shawn O'Sullivan, Kenny Gould, and Terrence Cauthen. Further, many of the amateur stars who turned pro late were already world class amateurs by their early twenties, so it's not just the case that they were feasting on much younger and less experienced opposition.

I think age is a factor though. As I mentioned in the Egor thread, the older guys spend less of their physical primes as pros, and unless they've moved very fast a good chunk of that can be wasted on lacklustre opposition. I think the advanced age and wear from all their amateur fights means they've generally given away more of themselves prior to turning pro. Then there's the possibility that spending more time as an amateur makes it harder to adjust to the differences of the pro game.

It may also be that the fighters who show great pro potential as amateurs have more lucrative options to turn pro, and hence are induced to join the paid ranks more quickly.

Great examples above but I'm thinking more of the cream of the crop. I included some silver/bronze medalists like RJJ, Evander and Floyd but guys like Wells, Gould and Cauthen were medalists who werent really amateur stars.

I have a hunch Mekhontsev will fade into the relative anonymity that Wells, etc now experience. He was being hyped as a star and although he's not as much of a disaster as Fraudley Harrison he'll probably be consigned to 2nd-tier status before too long.

[Tarkus]

Wilder 22
Golovkin 24
Lara 24
Lomachenko 25
Usyk 25
Campbell 25
Gamboa 26
Murata 27
Rigo 29
Derevyanchenko 29
Shiming 32

[Lackeos]

My opinion is basically that the earlier you win your first gold medal, the more of a real indicator of potential it is. When you're 18-20 and win a medal, you're much more of a true prodigy. When you're 28 and you win a medal, you're an adult beating up kids; you don't have potential, you just have a massive experience advantage. Plus you have a lot fewer years left of your prime.

Second assertion: provided that you did win a gold medal (and therefore already have plenty of talent, training, and quality amateur experience), the earlier you turn pro, the better. That way, you have as much time as possible to develop your style for the logistics of professional competition (10-point must system, 12 rounders, no headgear, etc.).

This is an unedited list of Olympic gold medalists between 1992 and 2008 who went on to turn pro. I think the age 19-21 group has had the most professional success, the age 22-23 group has the second most professional success, and the age 24+ group has the third most professional success.
First number = Age of their first gold medal in non-junior worldwide competition
Second number = Age of professional debut
Guillermo Rigondeaux - 19, 28
Oscar De La Hoya - 19, 19
Vasyl Lomachenko - 20, 25
Andre Ward - 20, 20
Wladimir Klitschko - 20, 20
Brahim Asloum - 21, 22
Joel Casamayor - 21, 25
David Reid - 22, 23
James DeGale - 22, 23
Yuri Gamboa - 22, 25
Vasiliy Jirov - 22, 23
Choe Chol-su - 22, 26
Torsten May - 22, 23
Alexander Povetkin - 23, 25
Zou Shiming - 24, 31
Manus Boonjumnong - 24, 25
Odlanier Solis - 24, 27
Yan Bartelemí - 24, 27
Muhammad Abdullaev - 25, 27
Rakhim Chakhiev - 25, 26
Michael Carruth - 25, 26
István Kovács - 26, 27
Audley Harrison - 28, 29
Aleksandr Lebziak - 28, 32

[locoxelbox]

Well, I´m not sure your theory really holds up...Of course, if you have a 19 year old gold medalist he might be a superstar in the making. But if we take a look at the 2012 Olympians who has been fast tracked to a World title shot, most of them were 2-time (and even 3-time) Olympians between 24-27 years old. Only Oscar Valdez (21), a 2-time Olympian, and Errol Spence (22) were younger than 24 years old.

2014-03-01 WBO FEA Challenger Vasyl Lomachenko, 2-time Olympian, 25 years at Pro debut - later Champion.
2015-03-07 IBF FLY Challenger Zou Shiming 3-time Olympian, 31 years old at Pro debut - later Champion.
2015-08-02 WBA BAN Challenger Raushee Warren, 3-time Olympian, 25 years old at Pro debut - later Champion.
2016-04-09 IBF HEA Champion Anthony Joshua, Olympig Gold, 24 years old at Pro debut.
2016-07-23 WBO FEA Champion Oscar Valdez, 2-time Olympian, 21 years old at Pro debut.
2016-09-17 WBO CRU Champion Oleksandr Usyk, 2-time Olympian, 26 years old at Pro debut.
2017-05-20 WBA MID Challenger Ryota Murata, Olympic Gold, 27 years old at Pro debut.
2017-05-27 IBF WEL Champion Errol Spence, Olympian, 22 years old at Pro debut.
2017-07-02 WBO WEL Champion Jeff Horn, Olympian, 25 years old at Pro debut.

When I was a young kid starting out I used to hear that these Russian and Cuban fighters were "3-round fighters" who had way too many amateur bouts to ever be able to adapt to the pro game. Well, I think today in 2017 fighters like Lomachenko, Rigondeaux, Usyk, etc has proven the old experts wrong.

Of the last two Olympics, there were only four medallists that were younger than 20; Cubans Robeisy Ramirez (18 years in 2012) and Yoahnys Argilagos (19 in 2016), Venezuelan Yoel Finol (19 in 2016) and Shakur Stevenson (19 in 2016).

Winning a gold medal when you are 26-28 doesn´t mean you beat up a bunch of kids as the opponents were probably around the same age. In 2012 the average age of the 250 male participants was 24,14 years and the average age of the 40 medallists was 25,05 years.

There are more and more countries who can offer good money for their top boxers to remain amateur. That´s why many boxers nowadays turn pro at a more advanced age than before. And it doesn´t necessarily mean they are at a disadvantage as shown in the stats above.

[Lackeos]

But if we take a look at the 2012 Olympians...

Why are you even looking at 2012 Olympians? They only medaled 5 years ago. We're trying to analyze the correlation between age of medaling and professional accomplishments throughout one's entire career. You have to go further back in time, or you aren't going to be able to capture entire careers. All you have is a list of careers that have barely started. If people had judged Wladimir Klitschko by only what he had accomplished 5 years after turning pro, they would be doing him a great disservice. If they judged Odlanier Solis by only what had happened up through 2009, he would have looked like a bright up-and-comer with the potential to be a titlist.

Not to mention that a lot of the fighters you've listed have barely even begun notching professional accomplishments. Like seriously, let's compare Zou Shiming and Oleksandr Usyk to Oscar De La Hoya and Wladimir Klitschko. Shiming has 1 world title win. Usyk has 3 world title wins. Ryoto Murata has 0 world title wins. Oscar De La Hoya has 24 world title wins and is a first ballot hall of famer. Wladimir has 25 world title wins, he reigned as the consensus #1 of his division for 10 years, and he is going to be a first ballot hall of famer. Andre Ward has been considered p4p top 5 for the past 6 years. I don't understand how you've managed to convince yourself that Shiming, Usyk, and Murata's professional accomplishments somehow compare with the professional accomplishments of young medalists like Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Wladimir Klitschko, Oscar De La Hoya, Andre Ward, Pernell Whitaker, Meldrick Taylor, Sugar Ray Leonard, Michael Spinks, George Foreman, etc. If you're trying to imply that Murata, Usyk, Shiming, etc. will eventually have careers this great, then all you have is unsubstantiated innuendo.

[locoxelbox]

I took the 2012 Olympics as an example because the landscape of professional boxing has changed from what it was in, say 1992 when De La Hoya turned pro. Nowadays more Eastern Europeans, other former Soviet countries, Cubans and other traditional "amateur" countries are turning pro at a more advanced age than the average pro boxer from USA, UK, Latin America, etc.

Plenty of the UK boxers remain amateur for a longer period and even some Mexicans stay longer in the amateur ranks and do 2 Olympic cycles like Oscar Valdez, Francisco Vargas, Joselito Velasquez, etc.

And it doesn´t necessarily mean they are at a disadvantage as I showed with the stats above. Of course 5 years into a pro career isn´t telling the whole story but my point was that many advanced age amateurs made the transition even faster than the young amateurs turning pro.

Many so called experts used to say that these boxers were too long in the amateur system to be able to adapt to being a good pro. I remember one former World title challenger told me a World class amateur would have no chance against a top 30 professional without at least 20 professional fights experience...this was in 1996.

[Best Coast]

I took the 2012 Olympics as an example because the landscape of professional boxing has changed from what it was in, say 1992 when De La Hoya turned pro. Nowadays more Eastern Europeans, other former Soviet countries, Cubans and other traditional "amateur" countries are turning pro at a more advanced age than the average pro boxer from USA, UK, Latin America, etc.

Plenty of the UK boxers remain amateur for a longer period and even some Mexicans stay longer in the amateur ranks and do 2 Olympic cycles like Oscar Valdez, Francisco Vargas, Joselito Velasquez, etc.

Mexicans are probably the least of all boxing nationalities with long amateur careers. More than any other nation, Mexican all-time greats are less dependent on amateur experience or amateur accomplishments. Maybe that's because most of the Mexican greats turned pro at an early age and didnt have time to waste on amateur competition, often because they needed the money. Of the 3 Mexican amateurs you mention above, the one with the best chance to be an all-time Mexican great is Oscar Valdez. Francisco Vargas is 32 and already on the downside of his pro career. He clearly wasted too much time in the amateurs with little to show for it.

The vast majority of the current and all-time Mexican greats, mostly have few if any amateur achievements:

Canelo Alvarez
Juan Manuel Marquez
Julio Cesar Chavez Sr
Marco Antonio Barrera
Erik Morales
Finito Lopez
Chiquita Gonzalez
Salvador Sanchez
Ruben Olivares
Carlos Zarate
Alacran Torres
Rafael Marquez

[Best Coast]

But if we take a look at the 2012 Olympians...

Why are you even looking at 2012 Olympians? They only medaled 5 years ago. We're trying to analyze the correlation between age of medaling and professional accomplishments throughout one's entire career. You have to go further back in time, or you aren't going to be able to capture entire careers. All you have is a list of careers that have barely started. If people had judged Wladimir Klitschko by only what he had accomplished 5 years after turning pro, they would be doing him a great disservice. If they judged Odlanier Solis by only what had happened up through 2009, he would have looked like a bright up-and-comer with the potential to be a titlist.

Not to mention that a lot of the fighters you've listed have barely even begun notching professional accomplishments. Like seriously, let's compare Zou Shiming and Oleksandr Usyk to Oscar De La Hoya and Wladimir Klitschko. Shiming has 1 world title win. Usyk has 3 world title wins. Ryoto Murata has 0 world title wins. Oscar De La Hoya has 24 world title wins and is a first ballot hall of famer. Wladimir has 25 world title wins, he reigned as the consensus #1 of his division for 10 years, and he is going to be a first ballot hall of famer. Andre Ward has been considered p4p top 5 for the past 6 years. I don't understand how you've managed to convince yourself that Shiming, Usyk, and Murata's professional accomplishments somehow compare with the professional accomplishments of young medalists like Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Wladimir Klitschko, Oscar De La Hoya, Andre Ward, Pernell Whitaker, Meldrick Taylor, Sugar Ray Leonard, Michael Spinks, George Foreman, etc. If you're trying to imply that Murata, Usyk, Shiming, etc. will eventually have careers this great, then all you have is unsubstantiated innuendo.

Great points through and through. locoxelbox is a huge amateur fan and usually comments on the amateur scene more often than here in the Current Scene. So it's not surprising that his perspective would be skewed towards semi-successful pros like Zou Sheming who is the poster boy for fighters who wasted too much time in the unpaid ranks!!

[crusader]

If you're going to use that logic, we can say that since you post more here far more than in the amateur section, it's no surprise that you're biased toward the guys who turn pro earlier.

[imaioral]

There is a huge difference in changing of amateur boxing for professional boxing. Many variable changes such as style, training, trainers, physical, strategy ect ect ect, it is not so simple to change as it seems to be. Some factors give a direction of a possible better career as amateur experience, championship won, huge win/loss difference and better overall skills. This combination must be ok for the fighter feel comfortable to make the transition to pro for suffering less in the new world that pro boxing is, the other importance is that if he wants to turn pro or not.

Physiologically speaking, the effect of age is clear, even in a very physical trained amateur whom can only delay it a few years before turning pro. But the maximum age for an ideal pro turn with focus in big names and world championships is 30, because anyway you'll have to pick some lower skilled boxers first (between 3 to 6) and it will take some years, otherwise is ok starting even 40+ if you want to punch someone legally (as long as you pass the physical examination to be considered fit to box).

Olympic boxers generally start pro late (when they decide for it, between 22-25) because their path is harder, most well made and most won't start to make bad career and will want to make more $$. Most will be better boxers than ordinary boxers that started from nowhere, but they are not Subject to not having a career failure.

* Egor Mekhontsev is a boxer who started late in pro boxing due to his amateur career and maybe because his half life as police special forces (or something like that).

Below there are some later starting Pro boxing names (28+) that are/were world champions and who almost got there. (Some were Olympians other don't).

- World Champions: Rigondeaux, Stevenson, Eduard Troyanovsky, Sven Ottke, Nate Campbell, Danny Green.
- Close world champions: Tony Thompson, Matt Skelton, Kubrat Pulev, Luis Ortiz.

[imaioral]

2015-08-02 WBA BAN Challenger Raushee Warren, 3-time Olympian, 25 years old at Pro debut - later Champion.
2016-07-23 WBO FEA Champion Oscar Valdez, 2-time Olympian, 21 years old at Pro debut.
2016-09-17 WBO CRU Champion Oleksandr Usyk, 2-time Olympian, 26 years old at Pro debut.
2017-07-02 WBO WEL Champion Jeff Horn, Olympian, 25 years old at Pro debut.

-> Raushee Warren is 3x World medalist not "3-time Olympian"
-> Oscar Valdez is 2x World medalist, not "2-time Olympian"
-> Oleksandr Usyk is 2x World medalist and 1x Olympian
-> Jeff Horn was Olympic athlete only, defeated in Quarterfinals 2012.

"Winning a gold medal when you are 26-28 doesn´t mean you beat up a bunch of kids as the opponents were probably around the same age"

- agreed

"There are more and more countries who can offer good money for their top boxers to remain amateur"

- depends, say a few. Cuba that is a huge boxing medalist factory that doesnt allow most olympic boxers to become pro beacuse of red comunist flag.

[Best Coast]

If you're going to use that logic, we can say that since you post more here far more than in the amateur section, it's no surprise that you're biased toward the guys who turn pro earlier.

You could say that, but just because I prefer following/commenting on pros doesnt mean I'm biased towards guys who turn pro EARLIER. When I used to spend a lot more time at the Amateur Forum I exchanged many posts with locoxelbox and can say with certainty that he is one of THE pre-eminent experts on amateurs at BoxRec and meant no disrespect toward him when I pointed out that he spends most of his time in the Amateurs forum.

But rather than quibble over side issues like that, I'd rather point out the most recent, FRESH example of a former amateur star who spent way too much time in the amateurs and should have turned pro earlier:
http://fightnews.com/kimura-dethrones-s ... k-tko/1841

Unheralded underdog Sho Kimura (15-1-2, 7 KOs) scored a stunning eleventh round TKO over WBO flyweight champion Zou Shiming (9-2, 2 KOs)on Friday night to claim the WBO belt at the Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China.

Shiming was a MONTH shy of his 33rd birthday when he turned pro in 2013 and after being KOd in his FIRST pro world title defense at age 36 Zou looks pretty-much finished as a world-class pro.

[Best Coast]

"There are more and more countries who can offer good money for their top boxers to remain amateur"

- depends, say a few. Cuba that is a huge boxing medalist factory that doesnt allow most olympic boxers to become pro beacuse of red comunist flag.

If the Cuban government didnt mistreat and underpay its boxers then legendary amateur stars like Rigondeaux, Casamayor and Gamboa would never have defected:
http://articles.courant.com/2004-03-05/ ... o-corrales

When Joel Casamayor won a gold medal in the 1992 Olympics, Cuban leader Fidel Castro rewarded him with a new bicycle.

Casamayor accepted the gift and then turned around and traded it for a pig to help feed his family.

Four years later, Casamayor walked away from a chaperone in Mexico and kept walking all the way to freedom.

"I was very disappointed in the way they treated me in Cuba,'' Casamayor said Thursday. "I figured the next big trip I'd go out and ask for political asylum. That's what I did.''

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuriorkis ... #Defection

While training in Venezuela, Gamboa, along with Cuban teammates Odlanier Solís and Yan Barthelemy, snuck out of camp and found their way to Colombia and eventually to Germany, where they applied for visas to enter the United States. Before defecting, he had sold his Olympic gold medal to support his family.

Cuban government has traditionally treated their "national heroes" who bring "glory to the motherland" like dirt.

[imaioral]

Zou Shiming is unfortunately a clear example that should have stayed and/or stopped in amateur, because as a pro starting at 33 proved us/him that most who start after 30 won't have easy and huge success, even having a superb amateur career like Zou had.

[Lackeos]

Zou Shiming is unfortunately a clear example that should have stayed and/or stopped in amateur, because as a pro starting at 33 proved us/him that most who start after 30 won't have easy and huge success, even having a superb amateur career like Zou had.

Yeah. At the young age of just 36, Zou Shiming has managed to rise to the #22 spot of his division, which shatters any and all accomplishments of bums like Oscar De La Hoya, who occupied the top 5 p4p rankings at the ancient, elderly age of 22, and was ranked #1 p4p by The Ring at age 24.