Golovkin v Alvarez tactics

[Tarkus]

Golovkin and Canelo are comparably matched in every department except of one, stamina/workrate. This is where GGG has significant advantage and because of this I think this is the key focused point of this fight.

For Golovkin plan is quite simple. He need to put a relentless but intelligent pressure. Constant jab oriented attacks to take advantage of his longer reach. Lot of movement around Canelo to stay at a medium to long range. He can throw quick long hooks with both hands. Aavoid getting countered while keeping your own punches coming. Tire Canelo and exploit his proclivity to hang on the ropes covering up.

Canelos task is harder, as I think he is an underdog, both stylistically and skillwise. He has no significant single advantage. Plus he needs to preserve energy. That mean fewer power punching and more running and covering up. Canelo can run when he needs to. I believe he will run (or just retreat) in this fight. Retreat, land quick counters, cover up. He has a good tight guard and good defense over all, take advantage of that. Explosiveness attacks wont do him any good, it will only drain Canelos energy and if this turns into a tear up he will be battered.

I think this will start as a cat and mouse affair. GGG advancing cautiously throwing long punches, Canelo retreating countering. Towards the middle Golovkin will start to tighten the screws as per usual, take chances. Canelo will have some success landing big shots from the variety of punches. Towards the late rounds Golovkin will have Canelo sufficiently softened and tired to open up on him. Either GGG stops him late or Canelo last but is badly bruised and battered.

[Kilburn]

Is Canelo really going to run out of puff? Stamina has surely been one of his best attributes of late, unless I've only been half keeping up.

I see two fighters here who both operate in a highly controlled fashion, which will surely make this a tactical affair through 12 rounds. But Alvarez has all the attributes needed to take this IMO. I don't see him succumbing to GGG's physicality, he's too fit and too tough.

[jamesmcdonnell]

Id say canelos stamina seems fine, ive not looked at stats but i dare say he averages more punches thrown per round than GGG, who tends to show more economy.

[Tarkus]

Just look at Canelo against Liam Smith. He is forced to take last minutes of the rounds off, covering up and ropadoping. And thats against vastly overmatched opponent. Of course the fact that he doesnt have to make 154 this time around will help his stamina. But GGG isnt Smith and he can work on a relentless pace. Check out GGG against Martin Murray or Kassim Ouma.

[crusader]

Stamina issues are not necessarily of the wilting down the stretch variety

GGG tends to throw more punches, and he doesn't retreat to the ropes for breathers or go through long inactive spots because he constantly needs to recharge. I think both of these points are pretty clear, though if you just take a look at their last fights you may get a different idea.

Totally different opponents though, as Chavez was a dead punching bag, while Jacobs was long, fast, and mobile. The more I read, the more I think a lot of people are inappropriately comparing their current form based on recent fights. And how would a basic, probably EBU level JMW like Liam Smith have fared against GGG? I at least highly doubt that Golovkin's output would've dropped as it did against Jacobs...

[Tarkus]

I had a look at numbers to confirm my impression.

Historical average per round:
GGG 70
Canelo 40
Middleweight average 55

GGG threw 144 punches in the last round against Stevens. Imagine what would happen if Canelo threw 144 punches in a round. A cardiac arrest perhaps. :)

[Tarkus]

Stamina issues are not necessarily of the wilting down the stretch variety

GGG tends to throw more punches, and he doesn't retreat to the ropes for breathers or go through long inactive spots because he constantly needs to recharge. I think both of these points are pretty clear, though if you just take a look at their last fights you may get a different idea.

Totally different opponents though, as Chavez was a dead punching bag, while Jacobs was long, fast, and mobile. The more I read, the more I think a lot of people are inappropriately comparing their current form based on recent fights. And how would a basic, probably EBU level JMW like Liam Smith have fared against GGG? I at least highly doubt that Golovkin's output would've dropped as it did against Jacobs...

Jacobs was a moving target. Chavez was a punching bag. Better comparison would be Canelos output against Lara. And as you can imagine it was pathetic.

Against Canelo GGGs output will probably drop below his average. But so will Canelos. As a result GGG should outwork Canelo at least by 50%. Or around 200 more punches in a fight.

[Rexob]

This could be a Hagler vs Hearns replay hopefully, I'm not bothered who wins just hope they both show up for battle.

[jamesmcdonnell]

I had a look at numbers to confirm my impression.

Historical average per round:
GGG 70
Canelo 40
Middleweight average 55

GGG threw 144 punches in the last round against Stevens. Imagine what would happen if Canelo threw 144 punches in a round. A cardiac arrest perhaps. :)

Wow.. guess ive not seen enough of either mans early careers to form a correct impression.

[Tarkus]

I had a look at numbers to confirm my impression.

Historical average per round:
GGG 70
Canelo 40
Middleweight average 55

GGG threw 144 punches in the last round against Stevens. Imagine what would happen if Canelo threw 144 punches in a round. A cardiac arrest perhaps. :)

Wow.. guess ive not seen enough of either mans early careers to form a correct impression.

Those stats are based on their most recent 12 fights minus the last.

If we go back in history, GGG averaged 100 punches per round in 10 rounder against Ouma. Golovkins workrate is completely overlooked. I guess because of his power. Thats why when Eubank was claiming he will beat GGG because of his extraordinary volume I had to chuckle.

[crusader]

I think both looked good. Height disparity seems greater than what's listed...

https://twitter.com/jnsanchez/status/908788129372495873

[SaadOffTheDeck]

Is Canelo really going to run out of puff? Stamina has surely been one of his best attributes of late, unless I've only been half keeping up.

I see two fighters here who both operate in a highly controlled fashion, which will surely make this a tactical affair through 12 rounds. But Alvarez has all the attributes needed to take this IMO. I don't see him succumbing to GGG's physicality, he's too fit and too tough.

He's never shown stamina to be a strength.

[Tanzio]

I agree. Great actually, and both in super confident spirits.

I did not like how the announcers took it upon themselves to attempt to manufacture controversy / animosity. Let's just appreciate two great warriors agreeing to get together and sort things out in the ring.

[KiwiRider]

Canelo is going to swell up huge.
Look at him--

Both fighters looking in cracking shape

[Kilburn]

I had a look at numbers to confirm my impression.

Historical average per round:
GGG 70
Canelo 40
Middleweight average 55

GGG threw 144 punches in the last round against Stevens. Imagine what would happen if Canelo threw 144 punches in a round. A cardiac arrest perhaps. :)

Wow.. guess ive not seen enough of either mans early careers to form a correct impression.

Those stats are based on their most recent 12 fights minus the last.

If we go back in history, GGG averaged 100 punches per round in 10 rounder against Ouma. Golovkins workrate is completely overlooked. I guess because of his power. Thats why when Eubank was claiming he will beat GGG because of his extraordinary volume I had to chuckle.

I'm all for work rate but what about punches landed? With the best will in the world Golovkin can't make this fight resemble Mayweather v Gatti.

I guess I've just never been a fan of Golovkin's boxing style, and while I reliably root for Canelo's opponents time and again, it's the Mexican's more attractive style (to me) that I want to see conquer tonight. So a bit of bias has crept in but I do genuinely believe Alvarez can win what will surely be a strategic boxing match with a lot of missed / glancing punches from both sides.

I enjoyed the Kell Brook match up and was very curious beforehand about what Kell was going to try and do in there. But it was the Daniel Jacobs announcement that really made me think wow, finally a GGG fight that I can really get excited about. Then low and behold it barely delivers a highlight in the ring, Golovkin lands the jab just about enough to get the nod and I'm left thinking is that all it takes to reduce the threat? Of course Alvarez is a smaller fighter but he also isn't in the business of leaving his chin out to dry round after round.

I'm not buying this fight but I'll enjoy reading about it tomorrow morning, and it'll be a surprise to me if Alvarez has been successfully hunted down and worn out. But that's probably why I never bet on boxing

[Tarkus]

I'm all for work rate but what about punches landed? With the best will in the world Golovkin can't make this fight resemble Mayweather v Gatti.

I guess I've just never been a fan of Golovkin's boxing style, and while I reliably root for Canelo's opponents time and again, it's the Mexican's more attractive style (to me) that I want to see conquer tonight. So a bit of bias has crept in but I do genuinely believe Alvarez can win what will surely be a strategic boxing match with a lot of missed / glancing punches from both sides.

I enjoyed the Kell Brook match up and was very curious beforehand about what Kell was going to try and do in there. But it was the Daniel Jacobs announcement that really made me think wow, finally a GGG fight that I can really get excited about. Then low and behold it barely delivers a highlight in the ring, Golovkin lands the jab just about enough to get the nod and I'm left thinking is that all it takes to reduce the threat? Of course Alvarez is a smaller fighter but he also isn't in the business of leaving his chin out to dry round after round.

I'm not buying this fight but I'll enjoy reading about it tomorrow morning, and it'll be a surprise to me if Alvarez has been successfully hunted down and worn out. But that's probably why I never bet on boxing

Historical their connect percentages are similar, GGG slightly higher. But Canelos opposition was better, especially defense wise. So I'd say Canelo has a small statistical edge. But higher volume affect precision negatively. So all in all I think their punch accuracy is very similar.

I have not bring up a workrate as a prove of GGGs superiority so much, but rather to point out that this a factor worth paying attention to. In fact as I said I think this is the key factor to build a gameplan around. It is true though that sometimes strange things happen to plans when fists start flying.

[rpms]

Havent seen a poll yet,so am going for Golovkin late stoppage in the 10th after coming through a few rocky moments early.
Unless GGG`s slipped dramatically then Canelo`s nothing that he hasn't seen before-Lemieux and Curtis Stevens came with destructive reputations and were dealt with accordingly.
Great fight though

[wardnine]

Here's my breakdown and prediction for the fight: http://masterclassboxing.blogspot.com/2 ... lysis.html

Flying out to Vegas for the fight in a few hours...

[HellraiserBoxing]

My take on #GGGCanelo! youtu.be/97hlsH53Rbg This is our generation's #HaglerHearns

[Tuan_Jim]

It's refreshing to see that Canelo beating Golovkin is no longer a crackpot theory, because I've been saying it on here for a couple of years (and been horrifically mocked for my troubles).

Canelo is in his 20s, Golovkin is 35. Canelo does everything with better form than Golovkin. The Kazakh is the bigger hitter, but El Freckles is also a knockout puncher and clever enough I think to circumvent the worst of what comes his way. If GGG employs his usual rampaging attack he'll eat fist and be knocked out anytime from the 6th onward. If he tries box with Canelo he'll lose a decision. Gingers the world over will be dancing in the streets tonight.

[Boxerbeetle]

Anyone planning on stopping up for this? I can't decide whether to stay up all night, or go to bed and set an alarm for 3am, or just watch first thing in the morning. Decisions decisions.

[Tuan_Jim]

If I was confident I could avoid the result I would watch it the next day. In the pre-internet era I managed to avoid the Holyfield/Tyson 2 result a full week so I could watch the free repeat on Sky Sports. I doubt I could pull that off in this modern era of the spoiler minefield. I'll set the alarm.

[Boxerbeetle]

If I was confident I could avoid the result I would watch it the next day. In the pre-internet era I managed to avoid the Holyfield/Tyson 2 result a full week so I could watch the free repeat on Sky Sports. I doubt I could pull that off in this modern era of the spoiler minefield. I'll set the alarm.

How on earth did you manage to avoid that result for a week? It made the headlines everywhere!

[mickey1975]

If I was confident I could avoid the result I would watch it the next day. In the pre-internet era I managed to avoid the Holyfield/Tyson 2 result a full week so I could watch the free repeat on Sky Sports. I doubt I could pull that off in this modern era of the spoiler minefield. I'll set the alarm.

The bite fight? What did you do? Stay in all week with telly off and phone unplugged?

[Counter-puncher]

If I was confident I could avoid the result I would watch it the next day. In the pre-internet era I managed to avoid the Holyfield/Tyson 2 result a full week so I could watch the free repeat on Sky Sports. I doubt I could pull that off in this modern era of the spoiler minefield. I'll set the alarm.

The bite fight? What did you do? Stay in all week with telly off and phone unplugged?

He receded into a Proustian netherworld of onanism under his sheets for a week