digzee wrote: ↑31 Aug 2018, 07:36beating an out of shape and underprepared Fury
That sounds to me like you're making excuses for a loss already. He has a decent amount of time to get fit, and he beat Wlad after a layoff. I've said it before: 2015 Fury will go down in forum history as the new '88 Tyson. Even if he's knocked out in the first, people'll still say ‘Ah, but it wasn't
prime Fury’. He's what, 30 now? That's hardly 76-year-old Louis versus Marciano.
That doesn't actually mean I disagree with you, because if Fury turns up fat then it would greatly diminish a Wilder win, but that's Fury's responsibility, and we'll have to wait and see. For all Wilder knows it could be the best version of Fury who turns up.
coneye wrote: ↑31 Aug 2018, 17:29a trainer can't keep teaching him , he knows what to do and probably knows more than most trainers
I agree with that, but I also think that most trainers are terrible! Fury does make mistakes, but his height, mobility and reach have kept him from being punished for them for years. Joshua and Wilder are close to his size, though, so if ever there's been a time to review those flaws...
He's often vulnerable when switching, for example, because — Wlad aside — he's crafted that skill against men who are either too slow-footed to punish it, and/or a lot shorter. And when he moves his head from one side to the other he often sticks his chin out in the process. In his mind he's moving his head to avoid shots, but he'd see how it looks to opponents if someone replayed footage of it to him. Again, you can get away with that against those who can only see it and not punish it.
I think Fury's amounted a ton of bad habits at this point, and he'll need unprecedented adaptation to beat Joshua and/or Wilder. I think he will get stopped if he's too proud to spend hours analysing his progress over the coming months.
It's not like Wilder doesn't make myriad mistakes either, but can Fury hurt him? I'm doubtful that he can, and so I'm sure he needs a watertight defence. Maybe if he fights enough big guys in sparring and gets put on his arse a few times... Tactically, that can only help.
On-topic, I give Povetkin something like a 1-in-5 chance against AJ. I wouldn't be too surprised if he won, but I don't expect him to. For Wilder-Fury that's vice versa.