Ratings - please read before commenting - Archived

[computerrank]

Martin... Are you saying the worst an inactivity or opposition penalty can affect a boxer is to take them down to 10% of their max rating?

Yes, 10% of max career rating converted to division. Before I had 10 points fix.

[JCS]

Martin... Are you saying the worst an inactivity or opposition penalty can affect a boxer is to take them down to 10% of their max rating?

Yes, 10% of max career rating converted to division. Before I had 10 points fix.

Interesting.. do you think this is the primary reason for the prediction rate improvement or something else?

[computerrank]

Martin... Are you saying the worst an inactivity or opposition penalty can affect a boxer is to take them down to 10% of their max rating?

Yes, 10% of max career rating converted to division. Before I had 10 points fix.

Interesting.. do you think this is the primary reason for the prediction rate improvement or something else?

No, this is only a side effect.
The main reason is to have eliminated all factors depending on the Boxrec ranking at bout time. In earlier ratings the Boxrec ranking dependent factors improved the rating.
Now with the improved concept of an individual time period of strong results for every boxer, depending on strong results between the members, these additional rankings points are no longer needed and even counter-productive.

[mike1989]

Hi Martin and what has changed in the current rating and all-time rating ???

[mike1989]

Why does Entony Joshua So High in an all time ????

[computerrank]

Hi Martin and what has changed in the current rating and all-time rating ???

Look here in this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=28051&p=5080046#p5079858

The algorithm for the all-time ratings didn't change.

[computerrank]

Why does Entony Joshua So High in an all time ????

Johua didn't get to much extra points with the new release - from 380 to 442 points. But others are rated lower now:. Compare old and new points:

Code: Select all

   1 Heavyweight            9027 Joe Louis                      US 2027.64 1388.09
   2 Heavyweight             180 Muhammad Ali                   US 1824.35 1708.38
   3 Heavyweight            1187 Jack Johnson                   US 1670.57 1192.39
   4 Heavyweight             499 Evander Holyfield              US 1560.26 1383.53
   5 Heavyweight           11023 Sam Langford                   CA 1486.23 1100.59
   6 Heavyweight            9032 Rocky Marciano                 US 1440.54 1061.94
   7 Heavyweight            9012 Ezzard Charles                 US 1410.87 1256.88
   8 Heavyweight            9046 Gene Tunney                    US 1269.03  980.57
   9 Heavyweight            9038 Floyd Patterson                US 1240.85 1176.56
  10 Heavyweight            9041 Max Schmeling                  DE 1198.12  966.04
  11 Heavyweight           17615 Harry Wills                    US 1194.52  934.93
  12 Heavyweight           12077 Max Baer                       US 1119.18  849.57
  13 Heavyweight           10616 Jack Sharkey                   US 1062.32  768.25
  14 Heavyweight            7035 Wladimir Klitschko             UA 1010.07 1029.18
  15 Heavyweight             150 Larry Holmes                   US  942.13  941.55
  16 Heavyweight           11622 Sam McVea                      US  909.52  656.39
  17 Heavyweight           10744 Tommy Burns                    CA  908.19  654.23
  18 Heavyweight            9022 James J. Jeffries              US  895.40  156.48
  19 Heavyweight             147 Joe Frazier                    US  894.78  779.80
  20 Heavyweight           10817 Philadelphia Jack O'Brien      US  829.89  557.39
  21 Heavyweight             474 Mike Tyson                     US  755.81  622.42
  22 Heavyweight            9031 Sonny Liston                   US  742.16  544.16
  23 Heavyweight              90 George Foreman                 US  718.76  768.17
  24 Heavyweight           11627 Marvin Hart                    US  714.03  465.52
  25 Heavyweight           10799 Peter Maher                    IE  709.64   70.98
  26 Heavyweight           11641 Fireman Jim Flynn              US  670.88  403.57
  27 Heavyweight           11028 Jersey Joe Walcott             US  643.28  528.84
  28 Heavyweight           10784 Frank Slavin                   AU  627.02    6.69
  29 Heavyweight            1853 Lennox Lewis                   UK  623.32  697.45
  30 Heavyweight            9009 Jack Dempsey                   US  621.31  497.69
  31 Heavyweight           11631 Joe Jeannette                  US  597.94  530.08
  32 Heavyweight           10543 Peter Jackson                  AU  593.86   85.88
  33 Heavyweight             168 Ken Norton                     US  551.09  549.44
  34 Heavyweight           12711 Ingemar Johansson              SE  532.68  482.88
  35 Heavyweight            1640 Riddick Bowe                   US  521.89  441.69
  36 Heavyweight            7033 Vitali Klitschko               UA  517.85  418.72
  37 Heavyweight           32590 Patsy Cardiff                  US  491.99    4.17
  38 Heavyweight           12126 Arturo Godoy                   CL  476.99  316.07
  39 Heavyweight           40331 Pat Killen                     US  468.41    4.72
  40 Heavyweight           12072 Jim Braddock                   US  452.31  412.84
  41 Heavyweight           10526 Melio Bettina                  US  452.12  415.19
  42 Heavyweight           12087 Walter Neusel                  DE  450.45  430.69
  43 Heavyweight           12086 Primo Carnera                  IT  426.28  357.42
  44 Heavyweight             405 Mike Weaver                    US  418.90  342.71
  45 Heavyweight             251 Michael Dokes                  US  405.89  308.91
  46 Heavyweight          155774 David Haye                     UK  395.60  485.30
  47 Heavyweight          479205 Tyson Fury                     UK  395.48  425.01
  48 Heavyweight           40145 Joe McAuliffe                  US  395.47    5.38
  49 Heavyweight           10551 Tom Sharkey                    IE  389.98   72.11
  50 Heavyweight            4655 John Ruiz                      US  382.54  266.36
  51 Heavyweight          659461 Anthony Joshua                 UK  380.60  442.37

[mike1989]

Why does Entony Joshua So High in an all time ????

Johua didn't get to much extra points with the new release - from 380 to 442 points. But others are rated lower now:. Compare old and new points:

Code: Select all

   1 Heavyweight            9027 Joe Louis                      US 2027.64 1388.09
   2 Heavyweight             180 Muhammad Ali                   US 1824.35 1708.38
   3 Heavyweight            1187 Jack Johnson                   US 1670.57 1192.39
   4 Heavyweight             499 Evander Holyfield              US 1560.26 1383.53
   5 Heavyweight           11023 Sam Langford                   CA 1486.23 1100.59
   6 Heavyweight            9032 Rocky Marciano                 US 1440.54 1061.94
   7 Heavyweight            9012 Ezzard Charles                 US 1410.87 1256.88
   8 Heavyweight            9046 Gene Tunney                    US 1269.03  980.57
   9 Heavyweight            9038 Floyd Patterson                US 1240.85 1176.56
  10 Heavyweight            9041 Max Schmeling                  DE 1198.12  966.04
  11 Heavyweight           17615 Harry Wills                    US 1194.52  934.93
  12 Heavyweight           12077 Max Baer                       US 1119.18  849.57
  13 Heavyweight           10616 Jack Sharkey                   US 1062.32  768.25
  14 Heavyweight            7035 Wladimir Klitschko             UA 1010.07 1029.18
  15 Heavyweight             150 Larry Holmes                   US  942.13  941.55
  16 Heavyweight           11622 Sam McVea                      US  909.52  656.39
  17 Heavyweight           10744 Tommy Burns                    CA  908.19  654.23
  18 Heavyweight            9022 James J. Jeffries              US  895.40  156.48
  19 Heavyweight             147 Joe Frazier                    US  894.78  779.80
  20 Heavyweight           10817 Philadelphia Jack O'Brien      US  829.89  557.39
  21 Heavyweight             474 Mike Tyson                     US  755.81  622.42
  22 Heavyweight            9031 Sonny Liston                   US  742.16  544.16
  23 Heavyweight              90 George Foreman                 US  718.76  768.17
  24 Heavyweight           11627 Marvin Hart                    US  714.03  465.52
  25 Heavyweight           10799 Peter Maher                    IE  709.64   70.98
  26 Heavyweight           11641 Fireman Jim Flynn              US  670.88  403.57
  27 Heavyweight           11028 Jersey Joe Walcott             US  643.28  528.84
  28 Heavyweight           10784 Frank Slavin                   AU  627.02    6.69
  29 Heavyweight            1853 Lennox Lewis                   UK  623.32  697.45
  30 Heavyweight            9009 Jack Dempsey                   US  621.31  497.69
  31 Heavyweight           11631 Joe Jeannette                  US  597.94  530.08
  32 Heavyweight           10543 Peter Jackson                  AU  593.86   85.88
  33 Heavyweight             168 Ken Norton                     US  551.09  549.44
  34 Heavyweight           12711 Ingemar Johansson              SE  532.68  482.88
  35 Heavyweight            1640 Riddick Bowe                   US  521.89  441.69
  36 Heavyweight            7033 Vitali Klitschko               UA  517.85  418.72
  37 Heavyweight           32590 Patsy Cardiff                  US  491.99    4.17
  38 Heavyweight           12126 Arturo Godoy                   CL  476.99  316.07
  39 Heavyweight           40331 Pat Killen                     US  468.41    4.72
  40 Heavyweight           12072 Jim Braddock                   US  452.31  412.84
  41 Heavyweight           10526 Melio Bettina                  US  452.12  415.19
  42 Heavyweight           12087 Walter Neusel                  DE  450.45  430.69
  43 Heavyweight           12086 Primo Carnera                  IT  426.28  357.42
  44 Heavyweight             405 Mike Weaver                    US  418.90  342.71
  45 Heavyweight             251 Michael Dokes                  US  405.89  308.91
  46 Heavyweight          155774 David Haye                     UK  395.60  485.30
  47 Heavyweight          479205 Tyson Fury                     UK  395.48  425.01
  48 Heavyweight           40145 Joe McAuliffe                  US  395.47    5.38
  49 Heavyweight           10551 Tom Sharkey                    IE  389.98   72.11
  50 Heavyweight            4655 John Ruiz                      US  382.54  266.36
  51 Heavyweight          659461 Anthony Joshua                 UK  380.60  442.37

It turns out that Entony Joshua for Povetkin and Klitschko received more all-time rating than Usik and Lomachenko ??? Why ??? Can you give an example ???

[computerrank]

It turns out that Entony Joshua for Povetkin and Klitschko received more all-time rating than Usik and Lomachenko ??? Why ??? Can you give an example ???

You got a PM ...

[pugilisticspecialist]

With the new ratings system:
How many points would Usyk have if he moved up to heavyweight?
How many points would Joshua have if he (T)KO'd Usyk on 2019-04-13?

[computerrank]

With the new ratings system:
How many points would Usyk have if he moved up to heavyweight?
How many points would Joshua have if he (T)KO'd Usyk on 2019-04-13?

- 129
- 267

[Lackeos]

The highest rating among all active boxers is 328. Is this expected behavior? Because it's a big drop from past numbers. Is this new change to inactivity penalty stable? Or are ratings going to steadily decline over time?

Related observation: has the star rating system for fights been appropriately adjusted? Because it is currently displaying Pacquiao - Broner, Eleider - Kovalev, and Badou - Browne as 3-star fights. My expectation, based on the star values of the individual fighters, was that these were all 4.5+ star fights.

[imaioral]

The highest rating among all active boxers is 328. Is this expected behavior? Because it's a big drop from past numbers. Is this new change to inactivity penalty stable? Or are ratings going to steadily decline over time?

Related observation: has the star rating system for fights been appropriately adjusted? Because it is currently displaying Pacquiao - Broner, Eleider - Kovalev, and Badou - Browne as 3-star fights. My expectation, based on the star values of the individual fighters, was that these were all 4.5+ star fights.

I agree, it is kinda stupid to lower so much the rating that was already good and stable IMO. All January is a new rating form (in the female it was changed 3x+), this way matchmakers go crazy without a decent north, you guys from boxrec can't play with the numbers, ppl may depend on it, with so tight ratings, many boxers would be considered as the same level, when most times it doesn't .

e.g in a (now old star class system) a 'c' class fighter (3 star), now is a 'd' one (2 star) and in this new form, there are thousands of fighters whom are put in the same basket as if all were on the same level when they aren't, you could slightly distinguish who are 'better' then who, and now with so many equal ratings you can't, I don't agree with the new form at all, this is not socialism.

[computerrank]

The highest rating among all active boxers is 328. Is this expected behavior? Because it's a big drop from past numbers. Is this new change to inactivity penalty stable? Or are ratings going to steadily decline over time?

Related observation: has the star rating system for fights been appropriately adjusted? Because it is currently displaying Pacquiao - Broner, Eleider - Kovalev, and Badou - Browne as 3-star fights. My expectation, based on the star values of the individual fighters, was that these were all 4.5+ star fights.

- the ratings level dropped - as expected
- it is stable and will not decline over time
- the star ratings levels are adjusted to the new ratings level

In my test production I get 4.5+ star bouts - but Boxrec shows only 3 stars.

I will go into it ...

[Manrae]

Hey buddy, great work with the new ratings. Any chance the annual ratings get updated to reflect the new algorithm? Also, perhaps 2018 added?

http://boxrec.com/media/index.php/BoxRe ... al_Ratings

[computerrank]

Hey buddy, great work with the new ratings. Any chance the annual ratings get updated to reflect the new algorithm? Also, perhaps 2018 added?

http://boxrec.com/media/index.php/BoxRe ... al_Ratings

I will wait until end of January. Then the 2018 results will be consolidated.

[Manrae]

Hey buddy, great work with the new ratings. Any chance the annual ratings get updated to reflect the new algorithm? Also, perhaps 2018 added?

http://boxrec.com/media/index.php/BoxRe ... al_Ratings

I will wait until end of January. Then the 2018 results will be consolidated.

Awesome , looking forward to the updated lists

[computerrank]

I had to fix a bug in the ratings - now release r_37a launched.

No functional changes.

[JCS]

Martin,

Have you explored boxers like Caleb Plant? This boxer never lost or by the numbers, has not struggled in any of his previous bouts. Always dominant victories, hardly losing rounds. I believe in cases like him and a match like the one against Uzcategui, it seems fair to increase his pre-bout rating a bit as Uzcategui takes a bit of an unnecessary hit, against a boxer that has been rated too low. Both of their current ratings now seem too low.

I'm curious what something like this would do for prediction, but understand it'd be tough to place rules on a situation like this.

[computerrank]

Martin,

Have you explored boxers like Caleb Plant? This boxer never lost or by the numbers, has not struggled in any of his previous bouts. Always dominant victories, hardly losing rounds. I believe in cases like him and a match like the one against Uzcategui, it seems fair to increase his pre-bout rating a bit as Uzcategui takes a bit of an unnecessary hit, against a boxer that has been rated too low. Both of their current ratings now seem too low.

I'm curious what something like this would do for prediction, but understand it'd be tough to place rules on a situation like this.

Jason, can you specify your suggestion in numbers?

[JCS]

Martin,

Have you explored boxers like Caleb Plant? This boxer never lost or by the numbers, has not struggled in any of his previous bouts. Always dominant victories, hardly losing rounds. I believe in cases like him and a match like the one against Uzcategui, it seems fair to increase his pre-bout rating a bit as Uzcategui takes a bit of an unnecessary hit, against a boxer that has been rated too low. Both of their current ratings now seem too low.

I'm curious what something like this would do for prediction, but understand it'd be tough to place rules on a situation like this.

Jason, can you specify your suggestion in numbers?

Plant isn't the greatest example because his opposition hasn't been outstanding, but he's a very recent example, which is why I picked him.

Tough to cite specifics for a theory.. but..

The following is true.

1 - Boxer has won all his matches with dominant decisions. Maybe you allow exemptions in certain cases.. like debuts or against boxers in a similar position. In cases like this, we can use none of his prior wins as ceilings... If he had close wins, we could and this is void.
2 - Boxer beats higher-rated opponent.

I'm unsure if Hernandez was rated higher than Plant... so let's ignore that one. With the Uzcategui fight, since Plant fits #1 and #2, we play a little pre-bout catchup as it is a system limitation... the system only "sees" the result, not the fight.. right? A UD 118-110 could be competitive, or it could be dominant but on away turf. The system doesn't know either way.

For the Uzcategui fight now..
Plant 32 (W) Uzcategui 71

This, I think.. is where the tinkering enters. You could suggest "levels" to this.. in other words, how many times has the early career dominant boxer proved the system wrong?

What if we gave Plant half the difference.. and Plant enters the fight at ~51.5 points instead of 32?

[computerrank]

Martin,

Have you explored boxers like Caleb Plant? This boxer never lost or by the numbers, has not struggled in any of his previous bouts. Always dominant victories, hardly losing rounds. I believe in cases like him and a match like the one against Uzcategui, it seems fair to increase his pre-bout rating a bit as Uzcategui takes a bit of an unnecessary hit, against a boxer that has been rated too low. Both of their current ratings now seem too low.

I'm curious what something like this would do for prediction, but understand it'd be tough to place rules on a situation like this.

Jason, can you specify your suggestion in numbers?

Plant isn't the greatest example because his opposition hasn't been outstanding, but he's a very recent example, which is why I picked him.

Tough to cite specifics for a theory.. but..

The following is true.

1 - Boxer has won all his matches with dominant decisions. Maybe you allow exemptions in certain cases.. like debuts or against boxers in a similar position. In cases like this, we can use none of his prior wins as ceilings... If he had close wins, we could and this is void.
2 - Boxer beats higher-rated opponent.

I'm unsure if Hernandez was rated higher than Plant... so let's ignore that one. With the Uzcategui fight, since Plant fits #1 and #2, we play a little pre-bout catchup as it is a system limitation... the system only "sees" the result, not the fight.. right? A UD 118-110 could be competitive, or it could be dominant but on away turf. The system doesn't know either way.

For the Uzcategui fight now..
Plant 32 (W) Uzcategui 71

This, I think.. is where the tinkering enters. You could suggest "levels" to this.. in other words, how many times has the early career dominant boxer proved the system wrong?

What if we gave Plant half the difference.. and Plant enters the fight at ~51.5 points instead of 32?

Half the difference - we will see ...

[computerrank]

.....
What if we gave Plant half the difference.. and Plant enters the fight at ~51.5 points instead of 32?

Half the difference - we will see ...

The ratings simply grow to infinity very quickly ...

[JCS]

.....
What if we gave Plant half the difference.. and Plant enters the fight at ~51.5 points instead of 32?

Half the difference - we will see ...

The ratings simply grow to infinity very quickly ...

Interesting.. seems like it'd work its way out, but w/ some minor-moderate level of inflation.

You restricted it for those who only have dominant wins and only in bouts vs. higher rated opposition (where they also won)? Interesting..

[computerrank]

Half the difference - we will see ...

The ratings simply grow to infinity very quickly ...

Interesting.. seems like it'd work its way out, but w/ some minor-moderate level of inflation.

You restricted it for those who only have dominant wins and only in bouts vs. higher rated opposition (where they also won)? Interesting..

Yes, restricted to stopped bouts and UD with at least 10 rounds and vs higher rated opposition.

Only, when I restrict to stopped bouts, the ratings are at least stable. But the prediction success is 2 percent points lower.