If yarde wins....

[jamesmcdonnell]

Yeah some of the above are making it sound like a walk in the park, which is well off the mark ~ if the rumours that he drinks heavily are true it doesn’t necessarily mean a hell of a lot, some fighters handle the booze & get serious fight time no problem, Duran Chavez etc

Chavez Sr was a notorious alcoholic throughout his prime, didn't do him much harm. Duran was known to go on huge benders between fights.

Oops, just saw the rest of your comment, great minds...etc

[Bard of Boxrec]

Right up there, top 5 maybe, taking on a P4P in a hostile country like Russia to boot - much higher than Haye Mormeck as Jean was nothing like the level of Kov.

I was going to say mate, this has quite a bit of Haye/mormeck about it, although I agree that kovalev is quite a lot better than the Frenchman.

Haye at the time of that fight didn’t have a particularly impressive resume at all. I remember the usual suspects flapping their gums and thinking the corollary of ‘he’s fairly green’ is “he’s automatically going to get flattened!”

Boxing doesn’t work like that. Yes, some guys benefit more from developing a little longer than others before they jump in at the deep end. But boxing history also has numerous examples of guys who jumped in without much on the ledger and pulled it off.

There are actually people who thought Cleverly ‘wasn’t ready yet’ for kovalev after they fought. Really? How much better was he going to get? maybe he just wasn’t good enough?

The point being, cleverly lost because kovalev was better, not because he ‘wasn’t ready’.and If yarde does lose this, it’ll be because kovalev was better here too.

It’s about how much you trust the good old eye test sometimes, and I can see a very talented, hungry and powerful fighter in Yarde who is capable of going over there and doing the business against a guy who he MAY be catching at the right time. And I’ve always rated kovalev.

[mickey1975]

What’s a pisshead? I have been through literally everything as a drinker.... Wharton had ten pints the night before every fight! What level are these guys on?

[jamesmcdonnell]

Apparently Chravez Sr. was a real monster drinker.

[jamesmcdonnell]

Right up there, top 5 maybe, taking on a P4P in a hostile country like Russia to boot - much higher than Haye Mormeck as Jean was nothing like the level of Kov.

I was going to say mate, this has quite a bit of Haye/mormeck about it, although I agree that kovalev is quite a lot better than the Frenchman.

Haye at the time of that fight didn’t have a particularly impressive resume at all. I remember the usual suspects flapping their gums and thinking the corollary of ‘he’s fairly green’ is “he’s automatically going to get flattened!”

Boxing doesn’t work like that. Yes, some guys benefit more from developing a little longer than others before they jump in at the deep end. But boxing history also has numerous examples of guys who jumped in without much on the ledger and pulled it off.

There are actually people who thought Cleverly ‘wasn’t ready yet’ for kovalev after they fought. Really? How much better was he going to get? maybe he just wasn’t good enough?

It’s about how much you trust the good old eye test sometimes, and I can see a very talented, hungry and powerful fighter in Yarde who is capable of going over there and doing the business against a guy who he MAY be catching at the right time. And I’ve always rated kovalev.

Good analogy, the one thing counting against Yarde, is lack of amateur experience, Haye was a very successful amateur before turning pro, and so had solid fundamentals, even so, he came close to coming unstuck against the ageing Lion over in Paris. How much has Kovalev got left, who knows,

It's an intriguing crossroads fight.

[Bard of Boxrec]

I was going to say mate, this has quite a bit of Haye/mormeck about it, although I agree that kovalev is quite a lot better than the Frenchman.

Haye at the time of that fight didn’t have a particularly impressive resume at all. I remember the usual suspects flapping their gums and thinking the corollary of ‘he’s fairly green’ is “he’s automatically going to get flattened!”

Boxing doesn’t work like that. Yes, some guys benefit more from developing a little longer than others before they jump in at the deep end. But boxing history also has numerous examples of guys who jumped in without much on the ledger and pulled it off.

There are actually people who thought Cleverly ‘wasn’t ready yet’ for kovalev after they fought. Really? How much better was he going to get? maybe he just wasn’t good enough?

It’s about how much you trust the good old eye test sometimes, and I can see a very talented, hungry and powerful fighter in Yarde who is capable of going over there and doing the business against a guy who he MAY be catching at the right time. And I’ve always rated kovalev.

Good analogy, the one thing counting against Yarde, is lack of amateur experience, Haye was a very successful amateur before turning pro, and so had solid fundamentals, even so, he came close to coming unstuck against the ageing Lion over in Paris. How much has Kovalev got left, who knows,

It's an intriguing crossroads fight.

To a certain extent Hatton vs Tzsyu as well.

Hatton’s bum of the month club vs WBU chuckleheads = “he’s going to be crushed! Look at his prior opposition!”

Sometimes you’ve got to ignore the prior opposition and look at skill sets and how their styles match up in THIS fight. Not dwelling on the past.

The reason I can’t pick a winner is this fight isn’t because I think that Yarde is yet to magically pick up a whole new set of skills that would better equip him for a kovalev-level guy in 3 or 4 years’ time. It’s because I’m not sure who’s actually better at this point, and this is in part down to has kovalev slipped, what’s yarde’s chin like, etc.

[jamesmcdonnell]

Good analogy, the one thing counting against Yarde, is lack of amateur experience, Haye was a very successful amateur before turning pro, and so had solid fundamentals, even so, he came close to coming unstuck against the ageing Lion over in Paris. How much has Kovalev got left, who knows,

It's an intriguing crossroads fight.

To a certain extent Hatton vs Tzsyu as well.

Hatton’s bum of the month club vs WBU chuckleheads = “he’s going to be crushed! Look at his prior opposition!”

Sometimes you’ve got to ignore the prior opposition and look at skill sets and how their styles match up.

Yes, and McGuigan v Pedroza, although McGuigan had fought some good opposition coming into the fight, Pedroza had one foot already in retirement.

I met someone who did some security for team Hatton, and he told me Hatton didn't have a hope in hell.

Hatton never fought at that level again to be frank, he took some serious bombs from Tszyu early on, and walked through them.

[jamesmcdonnell]

Good analogy, the one thing counting against Yarde, is lack of amateur experience, Haye was a very successful amateur before turning pro, and so had solid fundamentals, even so, he came close to coming unstuck against the ageing Lion over in Paris. How much has Kovalev got left, who knows,

It's an intriguing crossroads fight.

To a certain extent Hatton vs Tzsyu as well.

Hatton’s bum of the month club vs WBU chuckleheads = “he’s going to be crushed! Look at his prior opposition!”

Sometimes you’ve got to ignore the prior opposition and look at skill sets and how their styles match up in THIS fight. Not dwelling on the past.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens when Yarde gets tagged, Kovalev is likely to be extremely dangerous early on.

[keithmoonhangover]

Kovalev is well past his best, so a Yarde win would speak more about Kov's downfall than it would about Yarde's rise.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Kovalev is well past his best, so a Yarde win would speak more about Kov's downfall than it would about Yarde's rise.

Is he that far past it? Not necessarily disagreeing, just not entirely sure.

[MightyWarrior]

Yes this is the fight of the year for me ( until the next one ) so many Intangibles, it’s going to be edge of the seat when AY gets tagged heavily - Kov has got George Foreman type heavy hands, though I haven’t seen any signs of a bad chin with the Brit, but his standard of opposition so far has been lacking...Plus that musclebound look of his might equate to stamina issues - off the top my head i can’t recall what’s the longest he’s gone, 10 rounds maybe ? And that was probably just beating up the other guy steadily...

And James’s comment makes me wonder how Barry would’ve got on if he’d had to go over to Panama to face Pedroza

[MightyWarrior]

And there’s plenty of examples of great champions, well past their best, clattering young upstarts

[jameswilson]

It would be the best away World title win from a Brit in years. I’d rate it above Brook v Porter. What are the other ones in the last 10 years as I can’t think of any other than that?

Edit - I think Fury’s victory would be better than this win if it happened.

[Deserter]

Boxing doesn’t work like that. Yes, some guys benefit more from developing a little longer than others before they jump in at the deep end. But boxing history also has numerous examples of guys who jumped in without much on the ledger and pulled it off.

But boxing does work like that. Pointing to the exceptions to the rule does not change that. Managers select routes to the title very carefully for that exact reason and rarely take leaps of faith like we're seeing with Yarde and Kov.
There are one of two scenarios at play here I suspect (or a combination of the two):

1) There is 'insider knowledge' floating around about Kov in terms of his drinking, training, being on the slide etc, that have given the Yarde camp belief he is there for the taking in a way that most of us aren't aware of.

2) Yarde himself has a vulnerability (such as chin and/or stamina) that could be exposed if he goes through the conventional route of fighting world-level gatekeepers, so better to gamble big and earn better money in the hope that his KO power allows him to end the fight before he's exposed himself.

I just find it really, really hard to envisage why there's been such a match-making leap otherwise.

[stujones]

Its right up there, I think the manner of the win is also important..... which is why Honeyghun vs Curry will always be way way way ahead of Fury vs Klitchsko - which Fury seems to win more comfortably and its more of a masterclass with each passing year..... it was a razor tight decision and if you use the old saying of "ripping the title from the champion" - then Klitchsko should have won.

Glenn McCory gave that final round to Fury so he could then say "fury won" or "he was robbed" had Klitchsko got the verdit - no other reason - cos Wlad won that round big. It was an awful fight and IMO an awful performance by both guys - there is no way Fury could have been confident when the score cards were announced, just like there is no way Haye could have been confident vs Valuev.

I think Napoles vs Stracey isn't a bad analogy personally - although as good as Kov is, not quite on Napoles' level - but like Napoles is past his prime.

[forcefraser]

Fury clearly beat Klitschko. Boring fight but clear who had won it.

[jamesmcdonnell]

Boxing doesn’t work like that. Yes, some guys benefit more from developing a little longer than others before they jump in at the deep end. But boxing history also has numerous examples of guys who jumped in without much on the ledger and pulled it off.

But boxing does work like that. Pointing to the exceptions to the rule does not change that. Managers select routes to the title very carefully for that exact reason and rarely take leaps of faith like we're seeing with Yarde and Kov.
There are one of two scenarios at play here I suspect (or a combination of the two):

1) There is 'insider knowledge' floating around about Kov in terms of his drinking, training, being on the slide etc, that have given the Yarde camp belief he is there for the taking in a way that most of us aren't aware of.

2) Yarde himself has a vulnerability (such as chin and/or stamina) that could be exposed if he goes through the conventional route of fighting world-level gatekeepers, so better to gamble big and earn better money in the hope that his KO power allows him to end the fight before he's exposed himself.

I just find it really, really hard to envisage why there's been such a match-making leap otherwise.

I strongly suspect the former.

[Bard of Boxrec]

Boxing doesn’t work like that. Yes, some guys benefit more from developing a little longer than others before they jump in at the deep end. But boxing history also has numerous examples of guys who jumped in without much on the ledger and pulled it off.

But boxing does work like that. Pointing to the exceptions to the rule does not change that. Managers select routes to the title very carefully for that exact reason and rarely take leaps of faith like we're seeing with Yarde and Kov.
There are one of two scenarios at play here I suspect (or a combination of the two):

1) There is 'insider knowledge' floating around about Kov in terms of his drinking, training, being on the slide etc, that have given the Yarde camp belief he is there for the taking in a way that most of us aren't aware of.

2) Yarde himself has a vulnerability (such as chin and/or stamina) that could be exposed if he goes through the conventional route of fighting world-level gatekeepers, so better to gamble big and earn better money in the hope that his KO power allows him to end the fight before he's exposed himself.

I just find it really, really hard to envisage why there's been such a match-making leap otherwise.

Boxing doesn’t work like guy A being vastly experienced beats guy B every single time because look at how inexperienced guy B is, that’s what I was saying.

It’s like some people actually forget the skill set and style matchup and get blinded by experience levels.

Managers and promoters do what they do for a few reasons, but just because they elongate a fighter’s career and tread water doesn’t mean their fighters can’t beat the divisional champ sooner. There might be more money to be made with other fights, there might be politics in the way, it’s not always the case that the fabled ‘gradual improvements’ are practicable. And so many divisions are so shallow anyway that in many cases the sort of ‘learning fights’ that are supposed to get a guy seasoned for the top don’t have much purpose anyway.

Plus how much is enough preparation for Yarde? Maybe folks think if he went through foregone conclusions against the likes of Blake Caparello or Karo Murat that would prepare him in some way just because these guys are nominally top 25. By some folks’ logic the thought of Lomachenko beating Russell when they fought would be outlandish.

If he’s good enough, he’s ready. We’ll see if he is.

[margaret thatcher]

I don’t think he’ll win but if does I’ll not overly rate it tbh.

Kovalev is old, been beaten up and a p1sshead now

Still interested in what you would rate? Would you praise him beating up Buatsi or Johnson?

[keithmoonhangover]

Kovalev is well past his best, so a Yarde win would speak more about Kov's downfall than it would about Yarde's rise.

Is he that far past it? Not necessarily disagreeing, just not entirely sure.

He's got a lot of miles on the clock. Ward hurt badly in the rematch. Alvarez knocked him out. His stamina looks patchy. I just don't think he's anywhere near the fighter he was from a few years ago,. That said, if he's even 70% of what he was. he will dominate Yarde.

[margaret thatcher]

I agree he's post-prime and vulnerable, but he looked pretty dang good last fight in dominating a legit top 10 fighter. He clearly still has some elite offensive tools.

[margaret thatcher]

But boxing does work like that. Pointing to the exceptions to the rule does not change that. Managers select routes to the title very carefully for that exact reason and rarely take leaps of faith like we're seeing with Yarde and Kov.
There are one of two scenarios at play here I suspect (or a combination of the two):

1) There is 'insider knowledge' floating around about Kov in terms of his drinking, training, being on the slide etc, that have given the Yarde camp belief he is there for the taking in a way that most of us aren't aware of.

2) Yarde himself has a vulnerability (such as chin and/or stamina) that could be exposed if he goes through the conventional route of fighting world-level gatekeepers, so better to gamble big and earn better money in the hope that his KO power allows him to end the fight before he's exposed himself.

I just find it really, really hard to envisage why there's been such a match-making leap otherwise.

Boxing doesn’t work like guy A being vastly experienced beats guy B every single time because look at how inexperienced guy B is, that’s what I was saying.

It’s like some people actually forget the skill set and style matchup and get blinded by experience levels.

Managers and promoters do what they do for a few reasons, but just because they elongate a fighter’s career and tread water doesn’t mean their fighters can’t beat the divisional champ sooner. There might be more money to be made with other fights, there might be politics in the way, it’s not always the case that the fabled ‘gradual improvements’ are practicable. And so many divisions are so shallow anyway that in many cases the sort of ‘learning fights’ that are supposed to get a guy seasoned for the top don’t have much purpose anyway.

Plus how much is enough preparation for Yarde? Maybe folks think if he went through foregone conclusions against the likes of Blake Caparello or Karo Murat that would prepare him in some way just because these guys are nominally top 25. By some folks’ logic the thought of Lomachenko beating Russell when they fought would be outlandish.

If he’s good enough, he’s ready. We’ll see if he is.

Experience is important, but like you say it's just one factor. Some guys are good enough that they can take those big jumps up and still win, even if perhaps they would've been even better with more experience. Tank Davis did it too vs Pedraza, Kovalev did it himself with Campillo. Obviously Yarde has a tougher opponent here, but even without great opposition he's very much in this.

[margaret thatcher]

Thing I wonder, with so little am experience and one-way traffic as a pro, is if Yarde's ever experienced being hurt before and how he might react to that.

[tobyh5]

I don’t think he’ll win but if does I’ll not overly rate it tbh.

Kovalev is old, been beaten up and a p1sshead now

Still interested in what you would rate? Would you praise him beating up Buatsi or Johnson?

I said I would not "overly" rate it to mean that it will not be this all-time great win by a Brit to rival Honeyghan V Curry. I read that shite on twitter and just sigh

[jamesmcdonnell]

I'm going to go with Kovalev on this one, I suspect he wants a few more big paydays, and probably another crack at a belt too, he's not exactly ancient, I suspect that his recent patchy form was probably due to indifferent training, but he knows that if he loses here, it's really the end of the road in terms of big paydays.