Ratings - please read before commenting - Archived

[computerrank]

Martin...

How is this guy ranked so high?

https://boxrec.com/en/proboxer/972272

The displayed rating of his last opponent looks suspect. A bug?

a bug

Carlos Canizales still a bit higher than the guy who just KO'd him. Intended?

seems wrong too

[JCS]

a bug

Carlos Canizales still a bit higher than the guy who just KO'd him. Intended?

seems wrong too

QA guy at your service!

[Daedalus]

Klitschko brothers at #1 and #2 at HW All-time.... Interesting. As is Laszlo Papp at #6 MW.

So all the boxing experts were wrong to call the Klitschko era as among the worst in HW history as far as depth, because obviously the two rose to the top only by beating the strong opposition who were supposedly available at the time. I wonder who they were, since the brothers didn't fight each other?

[computerrank]

- bug fix winner-above-loser rule
- multiple bouts against same opponent
-- more weight on more recent bout
-- weight sum of all multiple bouts against same opponent is same as with only 1 bout

winner prediction ratio up from 84.20 to 84.36 percent

[Manrae]

- bug fix winner-above-loser rule
- multiple bouts against same opponent
-- more weight on more recent bout
-- weight sum of all multiple bouts against same opponent is same as with only 1 bout

winner prediction ratio up from 84.20 to 84.36 percent

Cool, I'm curious to check out the new ratings
Annual rankings have been updated as well?

[computerrank]

- bug fix winner-above-loser rule
- multiple bouts against same opponent
-- more weight on more recent bout
-- weight sum of all multiple bouts against same opponent is same as with only 1 bout

winner prediction ratio up from 84.20 to 84.36 percent

Cool, I'm curious to chwieck out the new ratings
Annual rankings have been updated as well?

Will do next week ...

[felinoboxing]

In BoxRec Annual Ratings: P4P Annuals, I think, they do it by taking each boxer's score from the last fight of the year.
You can, in a footnote or in any other way, put the names of the boxers who have been at the top of this ranking but we can't see it because they don't have the best score at the end of the year.
The same for the other classifications.

[SportsRatings]

Where does one see these new ratings? I still see Klitschko and Lennox Lewis at #1 and #2

[computerrank]

Where does one see these new ratings? I still see Klitschko and Lennox Lewis at #1 and #2

That are the new ones ...

[jujigatame]

Did Ruiz suddenly plummet to #11 because we're 2 years past the AJ win?

[computerrank]

Did Ruiz suddenly plummet to #11 because we're 2 years past the AJ win?

No, because the more recent bouts for multiple bouts against the same opponent have higher weight now:

viewtopic.php?p=5565309#p5565309

[jujigatame]

So this is all still a heavily modified version of the WHR system?

[computerrank]

So this is all still a heavily modified version of the WHR system?

Yes

[SportsRatings]

Where does one see these new ratings? I still see Klitschko and Lennox Lewis at #1 and #2

That are the new ones ...

Ok. I was confused by the messages saying the Klitschos were #1 and #2 ?

[Daedalus]

Where does one see these new ratings? I still see Klitschko and Lennox Lewis at #1 and #2

That are the new ones ...

Ok. I was confused by the messages saying the Klitschos were #1 and #2 ?

They were for a while. Who cares about that, the heavyweights are afterthoughts. Lennox isn't even in top 50 P4P; Ali barely made top 100.

[jujigatame]

I really worry the ratings have gotten way too inexplicable with this new system. There are just so many oddities:

- Tank over Teo by a wide margin

- Akhmadaliev several spots under Roman despite having beaten him in 2020 and having the superior resume since then

- Andy Ruiz dropping rapidly to #10

- Josesito Lopez somehow #10 at WW, maybe because he gave Thurman a tough fight 2.5 years ago?

- All the funny business at 140 from earlier this year with Josh Taylor jumping all over the place

It's just too hard for the lay person looking at the rankings to understand what they're looking at and how it all works. The old system wasn't perfect but the ability to look at the before/after ratings for each bout was so valuable and it really dovetailed nicely with traditional, manually maintained rankings.

[SportsRatings]

That are the new ones ...

Ok. I was confused by the messages saying the Klitschos were #1 and #2 ?

They were for a while. Who cares about that, the heavyweights are afterthoughts. Lennox isn't even in top 50 P4P; Ali barely made top 100.

But isn't that all due to the "scaling" between weight classes, and not really the WHR itself?

[computerrank]

I really worry the ratings have gotten way too inexplicable with this new system. There are just so many oddities:

- Tank over Teo by a wide margin

- Akhmadaliev several spots under Roman despite having beaten him in 2020 and having the superior resume since then

- Andy Ruiz dropping rapidly to #10

- Josesito Lopez somehow #10 at WW, maybe because he gave Thurman a tough fight 2.5 years ago?

- All the funny business at 140 from earlier this year with Josh Taylor jumping all over the place

It's just too hard for the lay person looking at the rankings to understand what they're looking at and how it all works. The old system wasn't perfect but the ability to look at the before/after ratings for each bout was so valuable and it really dovetailed nicely with traditional, manually maintained rankings.

- Tank over Teo by a wide margin - why would this be odd, Davis even goes for Super Lightweight now.
- Akhmadaliev several spots under Roman - this bug is corrected with the new version, just released today
- Andy Ruiz dropping rapidly to #10 - Andy dropped on 2021-06-07, 18 months after his fight against Joshua. The pure WHR would have him down to #10 since 2021-05-01 with his fight against Arreola.
- Josesito Lopez somehow #10 at WW, maybe because he gave Thurman a tough fight 2.5 years ago? - without that bout Lopez would be at #15,
- All the funny business at 140 from earlier this year with Josh Taylor jumping all over the place - the jumps where due to changes in the ratings version. Initially I used a more conservative WHR rating (estimated value - standard error). Now I use the uncorrected estimated value (as long as the standard error is below a certain margin).

I see, WHR is an unfamiliar concept. But it is the best, I found until now.

[computerrank]

# improved winner prediction ratio for amateurs from 0.6956 to 0.7001
# amateur bout values = 1 independent of number of rounds or stopped

# improved init_bout_rating for new bouts, closer to stable value
# - init value = value last bout or
# - value next bout or
# - prior value, but opponent's value at most
# improved winner_above_loser
# - winner takes upset value
# - loser takes 0.9 upset value and 0.1 lower value

[jujigatame]

I really worry the ratings have gotten way too inexplicable with this new system. There are just so many oddities:

- Tank over Teo by a wide margin

- Akhmadaliev several spots under Roman despite having beaten him in 2020 and having the superior resume since then

- Andy Ruiz dropping rapidly to #10

- Josesito Lopez somehow #10 at WW, maybe because he gave Thurman a tough fight 2.5 years ago?

- All the funny business at 140 from earlier this year with Josh Taylor jumping all over the place

It's just too hard for the lay person looking at the rankings to understand what they're looking at and how it all works. The old system wasn't perfect but the ability to look at the before/after ratings for each bout was so valuable and it really dovetailed nicely with traditional, manually maintained rankings.

- Tank over Teo by a wide margin - why would this be odd, Davis even goes for Super Lightweight now.
- Akhmadaliev several spots under Roman - this bug is corrected with the new version, just released today
- Andy Ruiz dropping rapidly to #10 - Andy dropped on 2021-06-07, 18 months after his fight against Joshua. The pure WHR would have him down to #10 since 2021-05-01 with his fight against Arreola.
- Josesito Lopez somehow #10 at WW, maybe because he gave Thurman a tough fight 2.5 years ago? - without that bout Lopez would be at #15,
- All the funny business at 140 from earlier this year with Josh Taylor jumping all over the place - the jumps where due to changes in the ratings version. Initially I used a more conservative WHR rating (estimated value - standard error). Now I use the uncorrected estimated value (as long as the standard error is below a certain margin).

I see, WHR is an unfamiliar concept. But it is the best, I found until now.

Tank over Teo is weird because no respected ranking ranks him that way. Not The Ring, BLH, ESPN, nobody. The fact that the BoxRec system rates him almost 50% higher than Teo just makes it extra strange. Tank's resume at 135 is non-existent and his signature win at 130 came against a guy who was 2 weight classes and several years past his prime. Meanwhile Teo beat a top P4P fighter at 135 plus 2 other very good recent wins in Commey and Nakatani.

Part of the problem here is how we are defining the "best" system. You are putting a premium on predictivity but I would say the average fan doesn't care that much about predictivity. They want reactivity. They want understandability. I understand WHR can get you the highest predictivity rates but unless you're creating a betting/handicapping system I don't think that's of great importance. You've implicitly recognized this by heavily modifying the system in an attempt to mold it into something that more closely resembles traditional rankings. But if what we want is something that looks like traditional rankings, why not stick with the traditional system that everyone understood?

[JCS]

The Tank over Teo situation is a classic "issue" that's found when comparing human and computer rating systems.

How do you handle performance in multiple divisions, in a sport where fighters can move in and out whenever and each fighter reacts to weight changes different, etc?

You can only punish a fighter's rating so much when he moves up... because the math has to do the opposite, on the way down.. Or does it? Fighters don't fight often enough to build division-specific ratings <-- This is the REAL problem.

My feeling on this.. is a provisional (temporary) rating reduction based on the fighter's "best" performance in the currently rated division in the past X days. Even if it is artificial, it will please the masses :)

On the topic of predictability.. once upon a time, I was sucked down that rabbit hole. Knowing the sport we're rating for and handling all of the nuances should be top priority... with the math geek stuff coming second :) It's best to get the Top 10 (or so) right, then let predictability guide the rest.

[computerrank]

Tank over Teo is weird because no respected ranking ranks him that way. Not The Ring, BLH, ESPN, nobody. The fact that the BoxRec system rates him almost 50% higher than Teo just makes it extra strange. Tank's resume at 135 is non-existent and his signature win at 130 came against a guy who was 2 weight classes and several years past his prime. Meanwhile Teo beat a top P4P fighter at 135 plus 2 other very good recent wins in Commey and Nakatani.

Part of the problem here is how we are defining the "best" system. You are putting a premium on predictivity but I would say the average fan doesn't care that much about predictivity. They want reactivity. They want understandability. I understand WHR can get you the highest predictivity rates but unless you're creating a betting/handicapping system I don't think that's of great importance. You've implicitly recognized this by heavily modifying the system in an attempt to mold it into something that more closely resembles traditional rankings. But if what we want is something that looks like traditional rankings, why not stick with the traditional system that everyone understood?

The rankings you cite consider things BoxRec will not. Minimum differences between calculated predictions based on the ratings and the official results are the only objective way to get measures for better and worse ratings. Everything else is a matter of believe it or not.

There are no heavily modified WHR ratings at BoxRec. The BoxRec ratings are strictly based on the pure WHR ratings.

The only BoxRec additional rules are:

- winner above loser for 18 months
- allow stay busy bouts and take the best WHR rating within at most 18 months of clear wins
- convert ratings between weight divisions with the same conversion tool as in all previous BoxRec rating versions

[margaret thatcher]

teo should obviously be ahead of tank, even if you dont knock tank for his wins mostly being at other weights, it's not like they are really all that good compared to teos. teo has by far the biggest win of either of them, but a huge margin, and of course it was at the actual weight they are ranked

[margaret thatcher]

I really worry the ratings have gotten way too inexplicable with this new system. There are just so many oddities:

- Tank over Teo by a wide margin

- Akhmadaliev several spots under Roman despite having beaten him in 2020 and having the superior resume since then

- Andy Ruiz dropping rapidly to #10

- Josesito Lopez somehow #10 at WW, maybe because he gave Thurman a tough fight 2.5 years ago?

- All the funny business at 140 from earlier this year with Josh Taylor jumping all over the place

It's just too hard for the lay person looking at the rankings to understand what they're looking at and how it all works. The old system wasn't perfect but the ability to look at the before/after ratings for each bout was so valuable and it really dovetailed nicely with traditional, manually maintained rankings.

- Tank over Teo by a wide margin - why would this be odd, Davis even goes for Super Lightweight now.

why would it be odd? are you serious bruh? and how does tank moving up to 140 for a fight that hasnt even happened yet boost his case?

i know any computerized system wont be perfect, but lets not act like tank being way ahead of teo at 135 is legit

[jujigatame]

The Tank over Teo situation is a classic "issue" that's found when comparing human and computer rating systems.

How do you handle performance in multiple divisions, in a sport where fighters can move in and out whenever and each fighter reacts to weight changes different, etc?

You can only punish a fighter's rating so much when he moves up... because the math has to do the opposite, on the way down.. Or does it? Fighters don't fight often enough to build division-specific ratings <-- This is the REAL problem.

My feeling on this.. is a provisional (temporary) rating reduction based on the fighter's "best" performance in the currently rated division in the past X days. Even if it is artificial, it will please the masses :)

On the topic of predictability.. once upon a time, I was sucked down that rabbit hole. Knowing the sport we're rating for and handling all of the nuances should be top priority... with the math geek stuff coming second :) It's best to get the Top 10 (or so) right, then let predictability guide the rest.

I actually don't think Tank over Teo is an issue of weight classes. Maybe a little bit (in the way the win over LSC is valued) but more centrally I think it's an issue of how traditional systems can put heavy emphasis on quality of competition. The WHR system seems to be giving Tank a ton of credit for racking up dominant wins over marginal talents like Cuellar and Ruiz and Nunez. No traditional system will value any number of those wins more than a win over Lomachenko, and I would argue that is the more "correct" (or at least widely accepted) way to create a ranking system.

I totally agree that getting the top 10 or so correct is paramount and then you can let predictivity dictate the rest. This current system doesn't seem to be doing that. It seems to be more of a handicapping/betting system that has had a bunch of tweaks made to hammer it into a form that people can stomach as a traditional ranking system.