Will we see a dramatic changing of the guard in the welterweight division before the end of 2022?

[Enlightened-One]

If you review the aggregated rankings from The RING, ESPN & TBRB from last summer, you’ll realise most of the fighters competing at 147lbs are in their mid-thirties and appear to be on their way out, or have already departed the scene.

Here’s a list of fighters where I feel their time as top-tier world-rated 147lb-ers is running out (or has already expired):

• Errol Spence Jr. (31½ years) - Inactive, injury prone & repeatedly expressed a desire to move to 154lbs
• Terence Crawford (34 years)- Has to orchestrate a new promotional/network deal before he competes again, which takes time. Probably the best 147lb-er on the planet right now, but his days at the top are numbered due to his age
• Jamal James (34 years) - Lost his most recent outing & is no longer world-rated
• Yordenis Ugas (33½ years) - A capable fighter, but time is running out & his fighting style usually fails to be rewarded by the judges
• Mikey Garcia (34 years) - No longer world-rated, because he only won one fight in 40 months and lost two from last three outings
• Egidijus Kavaliauskas (33½ years) - Always fails against the top-dogs and lost two from last three outings
• Danny Garcia (33½ years) - A capable fighter possessing a very chequered record at 147lbs & will be moving to 154lbs
• David Avanesyan (33½ years) - Time is running out & has previously failed against the top-dogs
• Shawn Porter (34 years) - Retired
• Manny Pacquiao (43 years) - Retired
• Keith Thurman (33 years) - Inactive, injury-prone, irrelevant & probably no longer capable of beating any notable names

Here’s a list of young world-rated welterweights:

• Jaron Ennis
• Vergil Ortiz Jr.
• Eimantas Stanionis
• Kudratillo Abdukakhorov
• Radzhab Butaev

Of course, Bob Arum has repeatedly claimed that some of the big-name 140lb-ers aligned with Top Rank will be making the jump to 147lbs soon:

• Josh Taylor
• Jose Ramirez
• Regis Prograis

This time next year, which old-timers will be eliminated from the rankings and which young-guns will quickly rise up them?

Thoughts?

[ironbeard]

I think that the “dramatic changing of the guard” will not happen in 2022. Hopefully we will at least get the Spence v TCraw reckoning.

[Bandog]

I think that the “dramatic changing of the guard” will not happen in 2022. Hopefully we will at least get the Spence v TCraw reckoning.

You're probably right. Crawford vs Taylor, Spence vs Ugas, then maybe Spence vs Crawford late in the year.

In 2023, Boots Ennis takes over. Spence and Crawford might move up.

[gregregegg]

Think its probably Boots world from 2023 on. Hope he gets a chance to try win it off spence or craw but i feel they might move up befor fighting him...

Verg ortiz will probably get a title too.

If connor benn times his run right he might even be a chance for a belt 2023, vacants everywhere, just need to "lobby" (bribe) the right body to set up the right vacant fight, he has the money and promotin behind him to try get a bit of that...

Teo and haney and ryan garcia could be welters soon (mabey not by the end of 2022, but soon after)

[Las Vegas boxing guy]

I think that the “dramatic changing of the guard” will not happen in 2022. Hopefully we will at least get the Spence v TCraw reckoning.

In 2023, Boots Ennis takes over.

Ennis has never been pushed past 6 rounds. I would like to see him in a competitive (late round fight) before passing judgment on him taking over the division.

[Enlightened-One]

I think that the “dramatic changing of the guard” will not happen in 2022. Hopefully we will at least get the Spence v TCraw reckoning.

In 2023, Boots Ennis takes over.

Ennis has never been pushed past 6 rounds. I would like to see him in a competitive (late round fight) before passing judgment on him taking over the division.

To be fair, Jaron Ennis is doing all the right things, because he's destroying traditionally durable fighters.

Examples of recent Ennis opponents:

• Ennis scored a first round KO over Thomas Dulorme. An opponent that went the distance against Yordenis Ugas, Jessie Vargas, Jamal James and Eimantas Stanionis. And it took six rounds for Terence Crawford to stop Dulorme.

• Ennis stopped Sergey Lipinets within six rounds. An opponent that went the distance against Mikey Garcia. And it took Lamont Peterson ten rounds to stop Lipinets.

• Ennis stopped Juan Carlos Abreu within six rounds. An opponent that went the distance against Egidijus Kavaliauskas and Jamal James.

For sure, Jaron Ennis hasn’t technically beaten a legitimate top-15 world-rated welterweight yet, which means he’s definitely untested.

But Jaron Ennis is beating the same sort of opposition many of his world-rated peers are currently facing, but he’s defeating them in more impressive fashion.

And based on the feedback from the boxing media, insiders, trainers and fellow pros, coupled with my eyeball test, all this information compels me to believe he’s the real deal.

The 24-year-old recently called-out Terence Crawford, Errol Spence Jr. and Yordenis Ugas. And he also claimed he’d be eager to face WBA regular titleholder Radzhab Butaev next.

Despite Jaron Ennis being rated in the top-six by all four governing bodies, I think he's currently wearing the same shoes Errol Spence Jr. wore between 2015 until May 2017, whereby he’ll be ducked by his fellow PBC colleagues until he eventually captures a title.

[caldo2025]

I personally think that Ortiz is the future if not already the top dog at 147. It will be interesting to see how they market this kid and how they go about raising his level of opposition.

The hard part is finding that rare talent in Boxing. To me, the easy part is showing him off to the world. But unfortunately, that’s not the case with promoters today. Promoters are not only killing some of these kids careers today with forced inactivity and soft opposition but shrinking primes and years of considerable earnings. To me Ortiz is a can’t miss no matter who he’s in with, he’s going to entertain the masses in a win or loss.

If I’m handling Ortiz, I’m hunting him the best and most competitive opposition out there and I’m fighting him at least 2 times per year.

[caldo2025]

I personally think that Ortiz is the future if not already the top dog at 147. It will be interesting to see how they market this kid and how they go about raising his level of opposition.

The hard part is finding that rare talent in Boxing. To me, the easy part is showing him off to the world. But unfortunately, that’s not the case with promoters today. Promoters are not only killing some of these kids careers today with forced inactivity and soft opposition but shrinking primes and years of considerable earnings. To me Ortiz is a can’t miss no matter who he’s in with, he’s going to entertain the masses in a win or loss.

If I’m handling Ortiz, I’m hunting him the best and most competitive opposition out there and I’m fighting him at least 2 times per year.

[Cent0089]

Crawford vs Spence. Nothing else truly matter in welterweight division.

Crawford, despite 34 years old has still minimum of 2-3 years of very prime, he is just that type of fighter. I would not be suprised if he can fight elites well past 40, just like Hopkins. Spence is only 31.

Plus Jaron Ennis must do whatever it takes to be title challenger. No more BS fights. Butaev vs Ugas-Stanionis winner are in some kind of title elimination or something like that. Im still not sold on Vergil Ortiz, but maybe im wrong

[gregregegg]

A good changing of the guard fight has been ordered recently. Ortiz Jr vs Avanesyan. suposidly ortiz has a fight Jan and then that will be made next. Excellent fight.

[KiwiRider]

Crawford vs Spence. Nothing else truly matter in welterweight division.

Crawford, despite 34 years old has still minimum of 2-3 years of very prime, he is just that type of fighter. I would not be suprised if he can fight elites well past 40, just like Hopkins. Spence is only 31.

I think Crawford is slightly past prime.
But even with 1 or 2 years on the slide, it does not change his #1 spot until we see him in with Spence.
Crawford is the sort of guy who can adapt to aging with his ring smarts, power and chin.
He called it a bit of an off night against Porter. I don't buy it.

[DrDuke]

I don't think, that Crawford is past prime, as he defeated his biggest challenge quite handily.

[KiwiRider]

I don't think, that Crawford is past prime, as he defeated his biggest challenge quite handily.

Sure.
He did the job, and emphatically.
And I don't doubt he will be great for a while yet.