Dmitry Bivol vs. Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez II - Who wins?

[Ruthless-RKO]

Canelo Noncommittal On Whether Bivol Rematch Or Third Triple-G Fight Will Be Next

Canelo Alvarez reiterated during his post-fight press conference late Saturday night that he wants a rematch with Dmitry Bivol.

The four-division champion wouldn’t commit, however, as to whether he’ll battle Bivol a second time in his next fight. Alvarez had already agreed to face nemesis Gennadiy Golovkin in their long-awaited third fight September 17 at an undetermined venue before he boxed Bivol on Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena.

The Mexican icon could drop back down to the 168-pound division and proceed with that third fight versus Golovkin four months from now. Russia’s Bivol (20-0, 11 KOs) would still be contractually obliged to give Alvarez a rematch, which could come in the third fight of Alvarez’s three-fight agreement with DAZN and Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom Boxing if Alvarez (57-2-2, 39 KOs) opts to square off against Golovkin again in his next fight.

“We’re gonna go to see what’s next, to talk about it and we’ll let you know,” Alvarez said through a translator.

When pressed, whether he fights Bivol or Golovkin, if he still intends to return to the ring September 17, Alvarez replied, “We’ll see what happens in the future. But we’ll just have to wait and see what’s gonna happen.”

Alvarez, who will turn 32 on July 18, has fought in May and September three times since 2012 because his May fights have been scheduled either on or near Cinco de Mayo and those September bouts have happened on Mexican Independence Day, which is celebrated every September 16, or around that time. He also has fought in May and returned to action in November three times, though, since 2012, which could indicate that he’ll take a longer break between his loss to Bivol and his next fight.

Regardless, Alvarez insisted that he will box Bivol again because boxing’s former pound-for-pound king wants to redeem himself following a decisive defeat in their 12-round fight for Bivol’s WBA light heavyweight title. Alvarez lost by the same score, 115-113, on the cards of judges Tim Cheatham, Dave Moretti and Steve Weisfeld, yet Bivol appeared to beat Alvarez more convincingly than that.

“We want the rematch,” Alvarez said, “and we’re going to do much better in the rematch.”

Guadalajara’s Alvarez did much better in his rematch against Golovkin than he did during their first fight, which resulted in a controversial split draw at T-Mobile Arena in September 2017. He defeated Golovkin by majority decision in their 12-round rematch in September 2018, also at T-Mobile Arena.

Embracing his third fight against Golovkin (42-1-1, 36 KOs) next still might make more sense for Alvarez because that showdown would be contested in the division in which he operates at his best, super middleweight, and it would be a commercial success. The 40-year-old Golovkin figures to want their third fight next as well because it would represent not only his shot to avenge the Kazakhstan native’s lone loss, but it also would grant the IBF/IBO/WBA middleweight champ a chance to become boxing’s undisputed 168-pound champion, and for his biggest payday.

“My most natural weight, [where I’m] most comfortable, is 168,” Alvarez said. “And that’s where I feel best. So, we’re gonna go and see if we’re gonna take on this rematch [with Bivol].”

[Ruthless-RKO]

Although he keeps saying he wants the rematch, he's not committed.

We're gonna see a bit of mix bags on here if the rematch is made.

[Enlightened-One]

Canelo could have done better against Dmitry Bivol.

There were times when he was defensively irresponsible, standing by the ropes with both arms by his side, allowing Bivol to unload on one-two’s.

Canelo kept trying the same left bicep battering strategy that worked so well against Callum Smith. But he should have identified the failing gameplan and switched to plan B.

Canelo also loaded-up, which meant that he couldn’t maintain a high work rate and he began to fade during the championship rounds. So, the Mexican should have thrown more combinations with less ferocity, rather than trying to end the fight with each punch he threw.

Canelo didn’t really go for the body either, which surprised me somewhat. He obviously needs to do this more in the rematch.

That said, even though Canelo is capable of improvements, I also feel that Bivol can be better too.

I found the Russian rather timid throwing Kovalev-esque style pitter-patter combos, coupled with perhaps too much lateral movement, during the first four rounds.

But when his confidence grew, he became more spiteful and much more effective.

Now that Dmitry has beaten Canelo and coped with his biggest shots, Bivol will be fearless and much more aggressive in the rematch.

I have no doubt that Bivol will throw much more heavy-handed shots and probably move less in the rematch.

I always favour quality over quantity when I score rounds, hence the reason why I initially favoured Canelo in my scoring during the early stages of Saturday’s fight (where others didn’t).

But in the rematch, Dmitry Bivol will be supremely confident, more aggressive and heavier handed.

And even though Canelo can be better than what we saw last weekend, it won’t be enough to avenge that loss in the rematch, unless he undergoes a complete stylistic overhaul (by becoming a much busier fighter, which I don’t think he is capable of becoming).

I do think that Canelo has a future at 175lbs though, because I would favour him to beat Beterbiev and Smith Jr., because I reckon that work-rate is the Mexican’s Achilles heel, and those two guys don’t throw anywhere near the volume of shots that Bivol does.

[DrDuke]

Bivol will repeat. His performance was so conclusive, that there's even no need in the rematch.

[Enlightened-One]

Bivol will repeat. His performance was so conclusive, that there's even no need in the rematch.

I reckon the rematch definitely happens... eventually.

It might not be Canelo’s next fight though, because there’s an expiry date on GGG’s availability.

We could potentially see Bivol facing the winner of Beterbiev-Smith Jr., with Canelo eventually challenging for the undisputed championship at 175lbs sometime during 2023.

Whilst I agree with your thoughts about the likely outcome of Canelo-Bivol II, I reckon that Eddy Reynoso will believe otherwise, but may feel that he needs more than four months in order to come up with an alternative gameplan (hence all the uncertainty during the post-fight press conference).

The problem is, Eddie Hearn claims that he expects Canelo-Bivol II to go ahead on the 17th September.

And that doesn’t give Canelo sufficient time to make the changes he needs to implement to improve his chances of avenging the Bivol loss.

[Perseus]

This reminds me of Winky Wright vs Shane Mosley.
After getting dominated the first time, Mosley was better in the rematch but still lost.
Bivol/Canelo will be a repeat of that.

[Bandog]

No need for a rematch. The fight wasn't even close. The corruption of paid off judges, even though the right guy won, is pathetic. Bivol had to win the 12th in order to avoid a draw!

If anyone had this fight anywhere close to even, I would say you have been paid off, or know absolutely nothing about boxing. This ranks up there with some of the worst, most corrupt, judging scores in history. It reeks a lot like Mayweather only getting a majority decision, but I thought Bivol beat him at least as bad. I'm not a big fan of Bivol either, just being honest.

I would expect Canelo will want the rematch, but will try to get Bivol to drain to 168.

[Ruthless-RKO]

Bivol won’t neee to drain down to 168.

He’s a small LHW. Doesn’t struggle to make weight.

He offered Cal Smith at 168 and he’s offered Canelo at 168 for the Undisputed.

[Enlightened-One]

Bivol won’t neee to drain down to 168.

He’s a small LHW. Doesn’t struggle to make weight.

He offered Cal Smith at 168 and he’s offered Canelo at 168 for the Undisputed.

Yeah, you're right.

Bivol rehydrates to around the 185lbs mark when he competes as a light heavyweight, which is a fairly similar number to many super-middleweights.

If he's given adequate notice, then I reckon he'll have no problems whatsoever competing at 168lbs.

[Ruthless-RKO]

Bivol won’t neee to drain down to 168.

He’s a small LHW. Doesn’t struggle to make weight.

He offered Cal Smith at 168 and he’s offered Canelo at 168 for the Undisputed.

Yeah, you're right.

Bivol rehydrates to around the 185lbs mark when he competes as a light heavyweight, which is a fairly similar number to many super-middleweights.

If he's given adequate notice, then I reckon he'll have no problems whatsoever competing at 168lbs.

Hearn predicted Bivol entered the ring over 190.

[Enlightened-One]

Bivol won’t neee to drain down to 168.

He’s a small LHW. Doesn’t struggle to make weight.

He offered Cal Smith at 168 and he’s offered Canelo at 168 for the Undisputed.

Yeah, you're right.

Bivol rehydrates to around the 185lbs mark when he competes as a light heavyweight, which is a fairly similar number to many super-middleweights.

If he's given adequate notice, then I reckon he'll have no problems whatsoever competing at 168lbs.

Hearn predicted Bivol entered the ring over 190.

Probably because there was no rehydration clause and he wanted the size advantage over a much smaller opponent, which is a fairly reasonable thing to do.

But Bivol has definitely competed with a rehydration weight of 185lbs.

And if Bivol had fought a big light heavyweight that was slow last weekend, he probably would have come in lighter than what he weighed for the Canelo bout, to optimise his speed.

[Ruthless-RKO]

What was Canelo's game plan?

Didn't seem to do anything..

[DrDuke]

What was Canelo's game plan?

Didn't seem to do anything..

He tried to pressure Bivol earlier in the fight and to make him feel the power, but that plan went wrong quickly and Canelo had no second one.

[Enlightened-One]

What was Canelo's game plan?

Didn't seem to do anything..

Canelo seemingly tried using the same gameplan that he adopted for the Callum Smith bout, which was to injure Dmitry Bivol’s left bicep in order to take away the jab.

I think he expected the Russian to wilt due to a combination of Bivol’s own frenetic pace and his own powerful clubbing punches.

But Dmitry is a durable fighter with a very good engine.

I also guess that Canelo failed to realise that even dripping water wears away stone, because he sometimes arrogantly allowed Bivol to land his own combinations. The Mexican was defensively irresponsible.

For sure, those punches in the early rounds didn’t hurt Canelo, but they definitely had a cumulative effect.

Canelo didn’t try to be elusive and then time Bivol’s jab with a powerful counter of his own, and nor did he work the body.

Canelo made mistakes and is a much better fighter than we saw on Saturday night, but then again, Bivol is probably much better too, because it took him four or five rounds to gain the confidence to put power behind his shots and also plant his feet more.

[Jeff_lacy_ko]

If you scored it a draw, all canelo really has to do is win 1 more round. I suggest for that round he land a flurry then sprint away from bivol, running to victory

[Enlightened-One]

If you scored it a draw, all canelo really has to do is win 1 more round. I suggest for that round he land a flurry then sprint away from bivol, running to victory

You're misprepresenting my sentiments.

When I watched the bout again, I realised I made a mistake and gave Canelo a couple of rounds that could have gone either way... or to Bivol.

I also realise that I personally prefer quality over quantity, causing me to award Canelo most of the first five rounds, whereas others (who either prefer Bivol or work-rate) would give most of them to the Russian.

I also claimed during my real-time scoring posts how the criteria used to score some rounds would simply be a case of personal preference: quality versus quantity, meaning that opinions would very likely be divided.

The second half of the fight was easier to score though.

The one thing I will say though, is that I genuinely disagree with those that felt Canelo was dominated. For sure, he deserved to lose, but he was competitive in that bout, even though most will inevitably say otherwise.

In all fairness, I did say at the time, I expected Bivol to have his hand raised (prior to the official outcome being announced).

[Fightdoctor]

Enlightened-one I agree with most of your analysis. I don't think Canelo will ever beat Bivol at 175. Now if he makes Bivol come down to 168 he has a much better chance. Yes Bivol is a small light heavy but he is accustomed to that division. When you walk into your house and it's dark you know where the light switch is. Having to lose an additional 7 lbs at age 31/32 can be taxing on the body and compromise stamina, which is one of Bivol's major strengths. If Canelo wants to redeem himself the rematch has to be at 175.

[Bandog]

Yeah, you're right.

Bivol rehydrates to around the 185lbs mark when he competes as a light heavyweight, which is a fairly similar number to many super-middleweights.

If he's given adequate notice, then I reckon he'll have no problems whatsoever competing at 168lbs.

Hearn predicted Bivol entered the ring over 190.

Probably because there was no rehydration clause and he wanted the size advantage over a much smaller opponent, which is a fairly reasonable thing to do.

But Bivol has definitely competed with a rehydration weight of 185lbs.

And if Bivol had fought a big light heavyweight that was slow last weekend, he probably would have come in lighter than what he weighed for the Canelo bout, to optimise his speed.

Stop with the "much smaller opponent" BS. Canelo said he had to drop 6-8lbs to even make the 175lb limit, after training for weeks. For once he was fighting near his normal weight. Bivol is taller, that's it. Canelo was out-boxed by the better guy. If 168 was Bivols ideal weight, he'd be there.

[margaret thatcher]

as great as canelo is, and as ridiculously as explosive as he can be, there is something over drilled about him. reminds me a bit of prime mike, where he'd have certain combos programmed into him like he was a machine, rather than the punches coming fluidly based on the moment. bivol, despite talk of him being robotic himself, just seemed to flow more naturally and better able to adapt to the situations

[Bandog]

I read recently that Bivol is OK with fighting Canelo at 168 if he puts his belts on the line.
If I were Bivol I'd demand a 50-50 purse and ppv split, enter ring last, choose gloves, and get his name on posters 1st.

[tiny_acres]

This reminds me of Winky Wright vs Shane Mosley.
After getting dominated the first time, Mosley was better in the rematch but still lost.
Bivol/Canelo will be a repeat of that.

Damn I was thinking of winky and Mosley when I saw your comment.
Canelo will definitely want the rematch next he has too much pride not to try to avenge his losing performance.
Team Alvarez will need a complete different strategy to win. It's a tall order even for a fighter as skilled as Canelo.
I would predict another ud for Bivol

[Jeff_lacy_ko]

If you scored it a draw, all canelo really has to do is win 1 more round. I suggest for that round he land a flurry then sprint away from bivol, running to victory

You're misprepresenting my sentiments.

When I watched the bout again, I realised I made a mistake and gave Canelo a couple of rounds that could have gone either way... or to Bivol.

I also realise that I personally prefer quality over quantity, causing me to award Canelo most of the first five rounds, whereas others (who either prefer Bivol or work-rate) would give most of them to the Russian.

I also claimed during my real-time scoring posts how the criteria used to score some rounds would simply be a case of personal preference: quality versus quantity, meaning that opinions would very likely be divided.

The second half of the fight was easier to score though.

The one thing I will say though, is that I genuinely disagree with those that felt Canelo was dominated. For sure, he deserved to lose, but he was competitive in that bout, even though most will inevitably say otherwise.

In all fairness, I did say at the time, I expected Bivol to have his hand raised (prior to the official outcome being announced).

Im picking on you dude
Canelo was comeptitve thest first half. He was not in the 2nd.

It was a bridge too far and bivol was too good

[Enlightened-One]

Team Bivol wants the Canelo rematch at 168lbs, so they can get a bigger purse split and to also capture all four super-middleweight titles.

They actually claim that Dmitry is better suited at that weight.

Interesting stuff.

I can post an article if anyone wants to read it, but this news is being reported by all the boxing media.

[Mexi-Box]

At 168, I think Canelo KO. Bivol never made that weight before. Getting shades of Dawson/Ward now. They prettyuch just gave Canelo what he wanted here.

[Bandog]

At 168, I think Canelo KO. Bivol never made that weight before. Getting shades of Dawson/Ward now. They prettyuch just gave Canelo what he wanted here.

The whole thing doesn't make sense, but Canelo money can make you do stupid things. Maybe Bivol is just calling Canelo's bluff, like he did last year.
Hell, Andre Ward would probably come back at 168 for Canelo money.