Ngannou for the upset.

[Cyclops]

OK I'm going to get stick for this, but I think AJ is in trouble here.

AJ looked alright punching holes in Wallin, but how motivated was Wallin really? I'm sure he was paid career ending money to take that fight, and would have said yes to it fit or unfit. Wallin didn't look conditioned to take punches and was hurt to that soft body early on. But he never looked like he was seriously trying to win: very tentative, any offence he managed to mount was from too far out and he fell in off balance. He was also retired by his corner on the stool. He never went down. He was AJ's old sparring partner too and they knew each other inside out. They'd sparred over 150 rounds together according to Wallin in the build up. I'm sure AJ took a lot of confidence in that.

Then look at the previous two AJ fights. Helenius, a man who'd fought a week prior, who had supposedly retired a fight prior to that after being KO'd in one. They were both terrified of each other, with Helenius just being the more frightened. AJ got a great looking finish, but Roberts chin has been cracked. He was a done fighter.

Before that, Franklin: a little fat guy that AJ couldn't put a dent in and bust up his nose, frustrated him and brought that emotional AJ that we see when he can't bully somebody, doing his tosser routine at the end.

Contrast Ngannou to those opponents. A huge man, bigger than AJ, well conditioned, motivated, very fit. People talk about boxing punches being harder than MMA punches, but this guy is conditioned to take kicks and elbows. It's fine saying that Fury is not a puncher and AJ is, but Ngannou is not going to be hurt so easily as Wallin. in fact, I think AJ might struggle to hurt him much at all. Look at how little AJ's punches troubled Franklin? Do you think Franklin is tougher than Ngannou?

People can also say that Fury didn't train for Ngannou, and that he was old or shot; that he looked awful. All of those things may be true, but I would still back that version of Fury to beat that version Wallin, that final ghost of Helenius, that version of Franklin. And in Fury looking awful, people really don't seem to want to give Ngannou any credit for some of the stuff he did to take Fury's game away. Fury loves to wrestle and tie up in the clinch. He couldn't do that to Ngannou. Fury switch hits, but when he switched, Ngannou did too. Fury's feints were ineffective. People talk about Ngannou being naive but it is not like they don't feint in other combat sports. Ngannou knew when the punches were coming.

Ngannou had a game plan for Tyson, one that Tyson couldn't figure out. If you think he's going to come into the Joshua fight with the same game plan, you're wrong. He will have something new for AJ.

So, I think after early success, AJ is going to be dealing with a man still there until the end. And Ngannou will land in those 10 rounds. I think he's in trouble, personally. And tentatively back Ngannou for the upset.

[SeanBrennan]

I don't think you'll get stick, he did well vs Fury. I don't think he will win but it won't be seismic if he does.

[Kilburn]

Damn good post Cyclops.

I'm not going to be brave enough to pick Ngannou in this fight, but I've seen a lot of predictions that AJ is going to have easy / quick nights work next week. I don't get where that confidence comes from.

[deadpan]

I completely agree. AJ will be back to the tentative post Ruiz version, reluctant to unload for fear of what will be coming back, with 'I'm gonna lose to a 0-1 fighter' ringing in his ears. If FN pushes it, he can get him out of there in 4.

[The_Don1]

I agree with Cyclops in the main, although rather than the upset I'm saying Joshua wins a decision.

A lot of boxing snobs appeared after the Fury fight dismissing Ngannou, like Alex Steedman on the boxing news pod, and a lot of the narrative was 'I scored it to Ngannou live, but on re-watch I scored it to Fury' when they realised the collateral damage was boxing was taking as a result of it.

I'm thinking we'll see the type of AJ that fought in the second Ruiz fight, safety first to get his arm raised after 10.

[jamesmcdonnell]

AJ's best chance is to control the centre and throw hard shots from the off, if he starts flicking out tentative jabs, then he's inviting Ngannou to come forward, which is a mistake.

Joshua has the fundamentals to hurt Ngannou, he's a good middle distance puncher and his straight right is a very hard shot.

I will go with Joshua in a fairly boring decision, I don't think he will be looking to hurt him, but I think he may well be able to discourage him early doors with some hard straight shots.

[Frostieballs]

Nah!

Anyone backing Ngannou want £50 with me?

[Spud]

Excellent post.

I keep changing my mind.

The one thing I remain consistent on is the fight is over in 3 rounds.

Is AJ mentally weak.. if he is will he go into his shell.

I think Ngannou is going to force AJ to fight.

An utterly intriguing fight. I cannot wait for it.

[MasterG]

Good post.

I think AJ will get wobbled, I think it will go the distance and I'm not getting off the fence to predict the winner, one leg is over towards AJ but that it.

I think we've seen the best of Joshua and this fight will prove that facts

[Spud]

Good post.

I think AJ will get wobbled, I think it will go the distance and I'm not getting off the fence to predict the winner, one leg is over towards AJ but that it.

I think we've seen the best of Joshua and this fight will prove that facts

I keep thinking AJ cannot fight on the back foot …. But he did in Ruiz 2

Can he ?

[gilgamesh]

Ngannou probably hits equally as hard as AJ, and probably takes a punch better, but otherwise than that I think every other advantage is in AJ's favor.

I suspect Joshua will play it safe, box carefully, and avoid getting into exchanges with Ngannou. Not unlike his strategy in the 2nd Ruiz fight.

He should have the advantage in Boxing skill, and pacing himself, and all that kinda stuff that comes with more Experience in the Boxing ring.

It's not out of the question that Ngannou catches him and takes him out, but Ngannou winning a decision seems pretty unlikely to me.

I lean toward AJ to win on points. I don't think it'll be easy for him, but I don't think it'll be as hard as it was for Fury either. For Fury-Ngannou was kinda unknown, and while the experience of having faced Fury was surely good experience for him, I don't think it's enough to catch him up to AJ's level in one swoop. So he's still gonna be a big hitter looking for the KO against an otherwise more skilled opponent. It's an interesting fight.

[Spud]

Ngannou probably hits equally as hard as AJ, and probably takes a punch better, but otherwise than that I think every other advantage is in AJ's favor.

I suspect Joshua will play it safe, box carefully, and avoid getting into exchanges with Ngannou. Not unlike his strategy in the 2nd Ruiz fight.

He should have the advantage in Boxing skill, and pacing himself, and all that kinda stuff that comes with more Experience in the Boxing ring.

It's not out of the question that Ngannou catches him and takes him out, but Ngannou winning a decision seems pretty unlikely to me.

I lean toward AJ to win on points. I don't think it'll be easy for him, but I don't think it'll be as hard as it was for Fury either. For Fury-Ngannou was kinda unknown, and while the experience of having faced Fury was surely good experience for him, I don't think it's enough to catch him up to AJ's level in one swoop. So he's still gonna be a big hitter looking for the KO against an otherwise more skilled opponent. It's an interesting fight.

Good preview

[tonyevs]

Its a bit like before McGregor fought Mayweather here

AJ is going to be able to land his best punches quite easily against a guy who isn`t used to feints and little traps other top professional heavyweights are.
If Ngannou is actually able to take the punches, which he most definitely won`t be able to do for too long, then AJ is plenty good enough to control it from the outside.

Ngannou is gonna find that unlike when he fought Fury, AJ will be taking this 100% serious and in 100% fighting shape.

[Kilburn]

I don’t expect excitement in the early rounds. Ngannou will surely have a hard job finding the target early on at a time where AJ is fresh and sharp, while Joshua won’t want to inject this guy any sort of confidence, by missing with his own shots.

Could be interesting to see who fades the quicker - Ngannou from launching attacks or Joshua from tying this beast up. I’m probably doing AJ a disservice in saying that.

[Kilburn]

Its a bit like before McGregor fought Mayweather here

It’s really not though.

Mayweather had precious little in the way of weaknesses. The same can certainly not be said for AJ.

[gilgamesh]

I don’t expect excitement in the early rounds. Ngannou will surely have a hard job finding the target early on at a time where AJ is fresh and sharp, while Joshua won’t want to inject this guy any sort of confidence, by missing with his own shots.

Could be interesting to see who fades the quicker - Ngannou from launching attacks or Joshua from tying this beast up. I’m probably doing AJ a disservice in saying that.

I honestly think that should be the bulk of his sparring for this bout. He's got more Boxing skill than Ngannou, so what he needs to work with to get used to what Ngannou is gonna be bringing to the table is wrestling around with big hulking muscular dudes in clinches. That's the thing that Ngannou will have that no other opponent he's faced has had.

It might be a good idea for AJ to spar with Bodybuilders and grapplers, mainly working on fighting in the clinch, and just generally getting his body used to dealing with that kinda strength.

[SeanBrennan]

in summary, you didn't get any stick for this, you sparked a good conversation - love seeing this on the forum

[KiwiRider]

Excellent post.

I keep changing my mind.

The one thing I remain consistent on is the fight is over in 3 rounds.

Is AJ mentally weak.. if he is will he go into his shell.

I think Ngannou is going to force AJ to fight.

An utterly intriguing fight. I cannot wait for it.

Even if AJ goes into his shell, he could still outbox Ngannou like he did with Fat Andy, all on the outside using his superior range.
I sort of expect that to be the game plan from the outset.

[big lennox]

I think it is going to be a fascinating encounter. Both guys can really bang. Could be a bit like Joshua vs Whyte.

[SeanBrennan]

I think it is going to be a fascinating encounter. Both guys can really bang. Could be a bit like Joshua vs Whyte.

I'm really looking forward to it, I hope it's an epic and AJ comes through.

[Coco]

No chance, AJ easy

[stujones]

No chance, Fury was awful. Ngannou surprised people as he wasn’t known for even being a good mma striker and he looked awful “training” with Mike.

Fury absolutely had no game plan, fought like he knew he was getting a decision and made Ngannou look ok. However, reality was Ngannou was breathing heavy from mid point and Fury just fought with no ambition or game plan and imo let him off the hook.

Imo Ngannou won, but he looked pretty one dimensional and easy to beat. Fury did not take it seriously

[Cyclops]

Nah!

Anyone backing Ngannou want £50 with me?

It might not be £50 but I'll be sticking a few quid on at the bookies for a bit of fun.

[Spud]

Nah!

Anyone backing Ngannou want £50 with me?

It might not be £50 but I'll be sticking a few quid on at the bookies for a bit of fun.

The fight is over in 3 rounds

[Steveh583]

Think AJ will make it look easy by being professional in his preparation.