COMPUTER SIMULATION NUMBER ONE: BRIAN MINTO VS AXEL SCHULZ

[HomicideHenry]

Analysis of The Two Fighters:

Axel Shulz

-7 years inactive
-38 years old
-already showing decline in boxing ability in 1996-1999

-greatest wins W12 Julius Francis, TKO 9 Kevin McBride, D10 Henry Akinwande, W10 James Smith

losses- L12 George Foreman, KO8 Wladimir Klitschko, L12 Micheal Moorer, L12 Henry Akinwande, NC Frans Botha originally a decision loss


Brian Minto

-26 wins, 1 loss, 15 KO's
-31 years old
-near his physical peak

-greatest wins W8 Billy Zumbrun, KO8 Jeremy Bates, W10 Danny Batchelder, KO3 Troy Weida

lone loss- SD Tony Tubbs


Axel Shulz Strengths: Experience
Axel Shulz Weaknesses: Inactivity, age

Brian Minto Strengths: Age, toughness, physical strength
Brian Minto Weaknesses: Lack of top flight opposition

BoxRec Rank: #24 in the world [Minto]
BoxRec Rank: Inactive [Shulz]


Computer Prediction:

Minto will win the fight over all based on percentages after 1,000 simulation runs.

[HomicideHenry]

I guess I will be the first person to give my own views on this fight coming up next month. If you review both mens careers you can see that Schulz was already showing signs of decline in 1996 when he had a hard time beating the likes of Julius Francis and Kevin McBride.

Schulz peak fight was the controversial loss against newly crowned HW champion George Foreman who was now 46 years old. He unsucessfully fought Frans Botha for the vacant IBF Heavyweight crown, losing a decision, which was reversed to a NC when Botha tested positive for steroids. His last fight was a one-sided loss to up and coming Wladimir Klitschko.

Brian Minto on the other hand is still building up a career, with only one loss to weathered Tony TNT Tubbs when Minto had yet to fight any fighters above the D level. Minto has an abundance of physical strength, very tough and determined, and he is also seven years younger than Shulz.

Minto has yet to be put in with a quality opponent, with the exception of Tubbs whose 'prime' was in the 1980's. Shulz should be a good enough test for the still green but durable Minto.

My personal opinion is that, though Shulz has the experience against better opposition, you simply cannot disappear off the radar for seven years with no tune ups [lesser fighters than Minto] and train for a few months and expect to be able to pull off easy victories over genuine prospects and contenders.

WIth the exception of George Foreman and Larry Holmes, there have been very few other fighters in history who have taken off more than three years at a time and was still successful as a fighter. The odds are quite against Shulz.

With that being said, I do think that Shulz will still give Minto a very good test, but, despite all of Shulz training for almost this whole year, I don't think you can erase seven years of inactivity, ring rust, and when you also take into consideration of his age and how he was on the decline in 1996, I say that the computer is right on this.

I go with Minto winning a decision and/or late kayo.

[overhand_right]

Minto was too inexperienced to deal with a carfty old fox like Tubbs.

Schulz was a mediocre heavy in his day & was in serious decline back in 98/99. Wlad K absolutely bludgeoned him.

At his age & his long layoff combined with the fact he was washed up years ago, I can't see him beating even a guy like Minto.

This thread should be on current scene.

[pundit]

This thread should be on current scene.

Exactly.

[pundit]

Question:

Is anyone interested in these computer "predictions" except IrishRuphusMurphy anyway?

[JCS]

What exactly is the software behind these computer predictions anyhow?

[HomicideHenry]

TITLE BOUT BOXING is the simulator/game used.

I somewhat disagree that this should be in current scene, considering everyone in this forum asked me to prove how accurate this simulator was when I used it for my ALL-TIME HEAVYWEIGHT TOURNAMENT, which ended up with Marciano, Ali and Louis in the top three.

And this is exactly what I'm doing right now. Besides, in this case its like a 'blast from the past' in Axel Shulz going up against a more recent fighter in Brian Minto.

[JCS]

Not sure that software is a proven predictor.. I mean you can edit one of the variables for a fighter and change the outcome.

Who's to say the fighter variables are correct?

[HomicideHenry]

I won't go into explaining this software all over again. Its getting pretty old. But I'd suggest checking out the TITLE BOUT site and forum for further information.

[JCS]

I won't go into explaining this software all over again. Its getting pretty old. But I'd suggest checking out the TITLE BOUT site and forum for further information.

I know all about it. You didnt really answer my question though, but I'll rephrase it. Are you using the default fighter configurations or are you modifying them to your perceptions?

[Collins2000]

I won't go into explaining this software all over again. Its getting pretty old. But I'd suggest checking out the TITLE BOUT site and forum for further information.

I know all about it. You didnt really answer my question though, but I'll rephrase it. Are you using the default fighter configurations or are you modifying them to your perceptions?

My understanding is that Irish is using the default values to 'prove' this simulator can predict fights with a high degree of accuracy without any 'further' human input.

The way this started was that Irish said he'd discovered a 'computer' that could predict results of fights with great accuracy and he wanted to use it to settle the final of some tournament he'd been running.

I suggested he 'prove' it's worth by getting it to predict the results of up-coming bouts.

This he has done a few times and, while the results were encouraging, they were not done under conditions that were acceptable to the few people in here who seem to have an interest in this.

Another bloke whose name I forget also did a few simulations but he merely added to the confusion by posting several possible results for the same bout. I believe this guy may have been tinkering with the variables to simulate different conditions but it was never made clear.

My understanding now is that these 'picks' by the simulator are using the defaults settings ie whatever comes already loaded or what has been updated by downloads from the OFFICIAL site. If Irish was playing with the variable settings I am sure he would have told us by now.

Of course, once you start changing the variables it is merely a computer-aided pick rather that a computer pick per se...

[Ezzard]

Of course, once you start changing the variables it is merely a computer-aided pick rather that a computer pick per se...

Collins

As I see it, it's always a computer-aided pick, someone as entered the stats for fighters and made judgements on fighters at some point. The difference when you tinker with fighters variables is that it's your ratings rather than the ones made by the people who made the game.

[Collins2000]

Of course, once you start changing the variables it is merely a computer-aided pick rather that a computer pick per se...

Collins

As I see it, it's always a computer-aided pick, someone as entered the stats for fighters and made judgements on fighters at some point. The difference when you tinker with fighters variables is that it's your ratings rather than the ones made by the people who made the game.

Ezzard, you are correct. The picks are actually made by whoever sets the variables.

With the 'virgin' simulator, what we are actually 'testing' is the programming and fight / fighter analysis skills of the person(s) who created and are maintaining the simulator.

Good to see someone else can actually see what this program really is.

[JCS]

Of course, once you start changing the variables it is merely a computer-aided pick rather that a computer pick per se...

Collins

As I see it, it's always a computer-aided pick, someone as entered the stats for fighters and made judgements on fighters at some point. The difference when you tinker with fighters variables is that it's your ratings rather than the ones made by the people who made the game.

Ezzard, you are correct. The picks are actually made by whoever sets the variables.

With the 'virgin' simulator, what we are actually 'testing' is the programming and fight / fighter analysis skills of the person(s) who created and are maintaining the simulator.

Good to see someone else can actually see what this program really is.

Its more the fighter variables than anything else..

[Collins2000]

Collins

As I see it, it's always a computer-aided pick, someone as entered the stats for fighters and made judgements on fighters at some point. The difference when you tinker with fighters variables is that it's your ratings rather than the ones made by the people who made the game.

Ezzard, you are correct. The picks are actually made by whoever sets the variables.

With the 'virgin' simulator, what we are actually 'testing' is the programming and fight / fighter analysis skills of the person(s) who created and are maintaining the simulator.

Good to see someone else can actually see what this program really is.

Its more the fighter variables than anything else..

I agree the variables are extremely important and I would love to see them displayed along with the prediction.

But as a programmer I believe the program logic that acts on the values of the variables to come up with the 'outcome' is at least as important as the variables themselves...

[Ezzard]

Ezzard, you are correct. The picks are actually made by whoever sets the variables.

With the 'virgin' simulator, what we are actually 'testing' is the programming and fight / fighter analysis skills of the person(s) who created and are maintaining the simulator.

Good to see someone else can actually see what this program really is.

Its more the fighter variables than anything else..

I agree the variables are extremely important and I would love to see them displayed along with the prediction.

But as a programmer I believe the program logic that acts on the values of the variables to come up with the 'outcome' is at least as important as the variables themselves...

The program is good. It's based on the old board/card stats game but is more sophisticated. I'd reccommend it to any boxing fan, who enjoys a bit of frivolity, has time to kill (long haul flight) and has a computer handy.

The ratings of the fighters are an honest attempt at ranking the guys from way, way back to the guys of today. Like any set of stats, rankings etc... we all think we know better, that's why we're on this site.