WHO ARE THE FAVORITES FOR THE OLYMPIC TEAM NOW

boxmel · Post by **boxmel** » 07 May 2007, 14:44

Based on the selection criteria, my guess is that Warren will go at 119. Why would he want to go back down to 112 when he's already won at 119?

emile · Post by **emile** » 07 May 2007, 15:03

It's an excellent question, and I guess since he fought more recently at 119, it may be that he can't make 112 anymore. For my analysis I should probably have him at 119, but I'm hoping he'll head back down if he can.

As to why he would want to go back to 112 - I would think that he would be stronger at that weight. It may not matter for the US spot, but internationally I like his chances at 112 better, especially because of Guillermo Rigondeaux. I think he has a chance at gold at 112 - at 119 silver is probably the best he can hope for and the Europeans look stronger at that weight too.

Plus, if he goes to 119, does Russell make a move to 125? That might potentially diminish the team at three weights.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 07 May 2007, 15:05

Hugo wrote:[qu

112 - Obviously Warren having outclassed Qa'id Muhammad at the PAL Championships. Perhaps Alafa has settled at #2, but there is no reason to think he can come close to Warren. Rau'Shee also looks like the best chance for gold in China, with a beatable international field.

119 - Nothing at GG made me think that Gary Russell Jr still won't take this weight. Marroquin may be closing the gap a little and Jorge Diaz gave him a close fight at the PALs, but Russell still looks like the best bet to me.

Regarding your predictions, I know Warren won the PAL @ 112 lbs. but he also won the trials @ 119 lbs. so, is he going @ 112 or 119? ( @ 112 he is favor, but @ 119 can be more challengin for him, lets wait and see.

At 119, Warren only has one relatively close loss and that was to the 2 time Olympic Gold medalist at 119 pounds. At 112, Warren hasn't lost since the 2004 Olympics, but the issue is whether he would he be too weak at that weight. I'm not sure if he has a lot of difficulty making 112 or not.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 07 May 2007, 15:23

emile wrote:It's an excellent question, and I guess since he fought more recently at 119, it may be that he can't make 112 anymore. For my analysis I should probably have him at 119, but I'm hoping he'll head back down if he can.

As to why he would want to go back to 112 - I would think that he would be stronger at that weight. It may not matter for the US spot, but internationally I like his chances at 112 better, especially because of Guillermo Rigondeaux. I think he has a chance at gold at 112 - at 119 silver is probably the best he can hope for and the Europeans look stronger at that weight too.

Plus, if he goes to 119, does Russell make a move to 125? That might potentially diminish the team at three weights.

I totally agree. Warren at 112, Russell Jr. at 119.
106 - Yanez
125 - Hylon Williams looked good but so did Raynell Williams.
132 - Ali or Crawford??? Maybe, but Ali had several close bouts at the National GG.
141 - Dargan if he isn't injured. Otherwise it is wide open.
152 - Andrade is the clear favorite and he did nothing in the National GG to make me think otherwise. I hope he stays focused and keeps his weight in check.
165 - Porter is my pick. He is getting stronger and better. I can't wait for the Porter - Jacobs rematch. I know Shawn is looking forward to it. Is Danny?
178 - Wide open. Riley is my pick at the moment. Shabazz did look pretty strong at the NGG. Downs - I have my doubts, but we'll see.
201 - Willett - lost due to an injury. I don't know the status on his shoulder. Shimmell - lost due to an injury. I'm hoping for the best with his elbow. Of course I'm hoping my son makes the team. There are some other guys that are in the mix. The upside with Jordan and a few others like Dorsett Barnwell if they win the Olympic Trials Box-offs is that they are young and will likely make bigger gains/improvements over the next 15 months than some of the older guys.
201+ - Michael Hunter or Nate James. Hunter is young and will develop a lot between now and the Olympics. James has excellent size and he is a southpaw. I would like to see him drop down to a solid 230 or 235. He has too much bodyfat right now and yet he is quick. I know that if he could lose some fat, his speed would improve.

emile · Post by **emile** » 07 May 2007, 15:25

Useful article on this subject from The Cincinnati Enquirer

Important quote

"Very fast, decent power, good defense," Valenzuela said of Warren. "But I think he should stay at 112. One-nineteen, he doesn't hit with the power like he has at 112."

Warren, a 2004 Olympian, said he'd like to fight at 119 in the 2008 Olympics at Beijing, but his coaches want him at 112. Against older, international fighters, 119 would be an awfully stern test.

Given this, it sounds like making 112 is unpleasant for him, but his coaches think its doable.

boxmel · Post by **boxmel** » 07 May 2007, 15:29

In my opinion, Warren should box at whatever weight he is making with no problems. It would be incredibly stupid to take him back down to 112 if that can't happen without starving just to make the top of the weight class. Also have to remember that there will be a year between the Trials and the Olympics which means that Rau'shee would have to stay at 112 for 12 months and I don't see that happening.

Hugo · Post by **Hugo** » 07 May 2007, 16:32

I sounds like there are not counting w/that year between the trials and the games, hes a young kid, still growing.

boxmel · Post by **boxmel** » 07 May 2007, 16:36

To me, the biggest reasons to NOT determine the Olympic team a year ahead are: 1. weight, 2. possible injury and 3. school/job.

1. Can the athlete keep the weight he qualified in for a year?
2. What if the athlete gets injured, in or out of the ring?
3. Can the athlete take off time from school or his job or both?

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 07 May 2007, 17:14

boxmel wrote:To me, the biggest reasons to NOT determine the Olympic team a year ahead are: 1. weight, 2. possible injury and 3. school/job.

1. Can the athlete keep the weight he qualified in for a year?
2. What if the athlete gets injured, in or out of the ring?
3. Can the athlete take off time from school or his job or both?

I agree and I still think the weight class should get qualified for the country and not a particular boxer. That way the next Joe Frazier can win a gold when he replaces the next Buster Mathis who gets injured and can't go to the Olympics. BTW what is the point of having Olympic alternates if they can't replace the boxer ahead of them if that boxer gets injured?

boxmel · Post by **boxmel** » 07 May 2007, 17:39

Dennis, there aren't any "Olympic alternates" per se. That's an inaccurate term. "Alternates" have never been able to replace a boxer who qualified, at least not since I've been involved. That's an AIBA (possibly IOC?) ruling and, actually, it makes sense to me. The paperwork and stuff involved in making an athlete part of the delegation is massive and has to be done way ahead of time. It would be a real administrative mess if there were constant changes in the Olympic boxing teams.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 08 May 2007, 00:21

I thought Tim Skolnik was an alternate on the 2004 Olympic team.

boxmel · Post by **boxmel** » 08 May 2007, 09:27

Tim Skolnik, along with several other boxers, were taken to Athens to be "partners" with the Olympic team, i.e., they sparred with the athletes and helped keep them in shape. At no time, and under no circumstances, would they have replaced any Olympian.

Dancin' Dan · Post by **Dancin' Dan** » 14 May 2007, 23:24

Mike Wilson at Heavy. He took a chunk of last year off due to problems centered around last year's national title (which he won then had to relinquish). He is a three time National Champ. Runner up to the last Olympics. Filling out, and looking better than ever in his last fight a few weeks ago against Jonte Willis.

He's beat many of the new heavies in the pro game - Kaufman, Garcia, Marrone and fought a few close fights with Estrada.

boxmel · Post by **boxmel** » 14 May 2007, 23:29

Mike Wilson is a super heavyweight.

locoxelbox · Post by **locoxelbox** » 15 May 2007, 00:03

boxmel wrote:"Alternates" have never been able to replace a boxer who qualified, at least not since I've been involved. That's an AIBA (possibly IOC?) ruling and, actually, it makes sense to me. The paperwork and stuff involved in making an athlete part of the delegation is massive and has to be done way ahead of time. It would be a real administrative mess if there were constant changes in the Olympic boxing teams.

Mel, there have been olympic alternates before. Today the tournaments qualify only the boxer, not the country but it wasn't like that before.
In 2000 Marshall Martinez qualified for the US at lightweight but decided not to go. I belive there was some legal trouble. His place was taken by David Jackson who didn't have to qualify as the US already had won their place. Also Mexico changed their qualified boxer Jorge Martinez for replacement Francisco Bojado who won in a national box-off.
In 2004 AIBA decided the qualifiers only went to the boxer. This is because the IOC wants it this way but now I can't remember their argument.

boxmel · Post by **boxmel** » 15 May 2007, 08:36

Ooops, you're right. That's what happens to the memory when you get older.

In 2000 Marshall Martinez qualified for the US at lightweight but decided not to go. I belive there was some legal trouble.

He got caught at the first Americas qualifier passing checks he had stolen from a gymnast's mailbox at the OTC in Colorado Springs. USA Boxing gave him the opportunity to quit the team rather than prosecuting. He is currently in jail for selling drugs with Ricardo Williams.

Also Mexico changed their qualified boxer Jorge Martinez for replacement Francisco Bojado who won in a national box-off.

From what I heard, this was a blatent rip-off. Jorge had already boxed for the Mexican team for several years and had done well internationally. Bojado couldn't qualify for the U.S. because he is not a citizen. I think Jorge had a good chance to medal, which Bojado did not.

I

n 2004 AIBA decided the qualifiers only went to the boxer. This is because the IOC wants it this way but now I can't remember their argument.

Their way of cutting down the numbers because, as they said, the delegations were getting too big. I actually think they did this so they could add ballroom dancing and chess to the summer Olympics. Same thing happened to Wrestling.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 21 May 2007, 10:14

Dancin' Dan wrote:Mike Wilson at Heavy. He took a chunk of last year off due to problems centered around last year's national title (which he won then had to relinquish). He is a three time National Champ. Runner up to the last Olympics. Filling out, and looking better than ever in his last fight a few weeks ago against Jonte Willis.

He's beat many of the new heavies in the pro game - Kaufman, Garcia, Marrone and fought a few close fights with Estrada.

Time off due to problems - failed drug test? "Filling out" - hopefully being done legally so he won't fail another drug test.

You say he defeated Jonte Willis a few weeks ago. Was it at a tournament? Was it a close bout? Was Wilson the winner of his Regional tournament or is he taking the at-large bid for the Pan Am team members? Did Wilson lose in his state or regional GG tournament or did he fail to enter the tournament?

J*BOX* · Post by J*BOX* » 21 May 2007, 16:46

Dennis wrote:
Dancin' Dan wrote:Mike Wilson at Heavy. He took a chunk of last year off due to problems centered around last year's national title (which he won then had to relinquish). He is a three time National Champ. Runner up to the last Olympics. Filling out, and looking better than ever in his last fight a few weeks ago against Jonte Willis.

He's beat many of the new heavies in the pro game - Kaufman, Garcia, Marrone and fought a few close fights with Estrada.
Time off due to problems - failed drug test? "Filling out" - hopefully being done legally so he won't fail another drug test.

You say he defeated Jonte Willis a few weeks ago. Was it at a tournament? Was it a close bout? Was Wilson the winner of his Regional tournament or is he taking the at-large bid for the Pan Am team members? Did Wilson lose in his state or regional GG tournament or did he fail to enter the tournament?

Failed drug test - it did'nt have anything to do with performing enhancing drugs... so that would not have anything to do with it. It's called training hard. And the fight between jonte and mike was a match bout, It was a good fight, and yes he has an At-large for the Pan Am team. The GG schedual(regionals) conflicted with the pan am qualifiers.. so he was unable to do the GG.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 21 May 2007, 17:53

It is good to know he is filling out that natural way. However, it is still sad that he failed the drug test. The match bout with Willis - was it a close bout or did Mike clearly win? All you said was it was a good bout.

Mike Wilson is still the clear favorite for the US Olympic team barring any more failed drug tests, injuries or illnesses.

#1fan · Post by **#1fan** » 22 May 2007, 03:16

WOW Dennis it seems that you have a really hard time finding something nice to say about Mike Wilson. Yea sometime we all do things we are not proud of however, he has paid the price and accepted responsibility for his actions. Lets just hope you don't live in a glass house! It sounds like Jordan is doing well in his boxing lets hope he continues and you don't have to read negative comments on the board about him. As for the fight against Willis... it was a good one. Mike was/is in top shape and he is looking forward to becoming the Olympian for 2008.

#1fan · Post by **#1fan** » 22 May 2007, 03:35

Dennis,
Mike has never missed an opportunity to box. If he is able... he is willing. Sometimes schedules conflict, don't take it as a failed to enter or a loss! If you had been keeping up you would know where he has been and what he has been doing. I don't know where you were 12 years ago and most days since then but I do know where Mike has been. So in all your negativity in all your postings, know you are talking about a pretty dedicated boxer. Your opinion is just that... your opinion. Although we value the input of the experienced people posting, in reading your comments in the many postings, you don't seem to have many nice things to say. You are able to take a compliment on behalf of your son pretty well though!

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 22 May 2007, 08:56

#1fan wrote:Dennis,
Mike has never missed an opportunity to box. If he is able... he is willing. Sometimes schedules conflict, don't take it as a failed to enter or a loss! If you had been keeping up you would know where he has been and what he has been doing. I don't know where you were 12 years ago and most days since then but I do know where Mike has been. So in all your negativity in all your postings, know you are talking about a pretty dedicated boxer. Your opinion is just that... your opinion. Although we value the input of the experienced people posting, in reading your comments in the many postings, you don't seem to have many nice things to say. You are able to take a compliment on behalf of your son pretty well though!

WOW - you seem to be very sensitive. I say that it is sad that he failed a drug test and then go on to say that he is the FAVORITE to make the the US Olympic team barring some unforeseen circumstance/accident and you take it as complete degrading of your boxer, son, friend or something. I think you should go reread my prior postings. I am not a person who writes just negative comments, but I will be honest about bouts, boxers, etc.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 22 May 2007, 09:02

#1fan wrote:WOW Dennis it seems that you have a really hard time finding something nice to say about Mike Wilson. Yea sometime we all do things we are not proud of however, he has paid the price and accepted responsibility for his actions. Lets just hope you don't live in a glass house! It sounds like Jordan is doing well in his boxing lets hope he continues and you don't have to read negative comments on the board about him. As for the fight against Willis... it was a good one. Mike was/is in top shape and he is looking forward to becoming the Olympian for 2008.

I think you are confusing me with someone else. I like the heavyweight and super-heavyweight divisions. I can appreciate what the big guys go through and know how hard they hit and get hit. Yes, there sometimes is more holding because it is hard to move those big bodies and when you get hit by someone who weighs 200 pounds or more, you definitely feel it. I know that a 132 pound slugger can't throw a punch that compares to an average 200 pounder. It is plain physics. I think WIlson is the leading candidate for the Olympic team, but hope that his drug problems are behind him. It is always sad when anyone succumbs to the use of illicit drugs.

Hugo · Post by **Hugo** » 22 May 2007, 10:33

Dennis, who are your favorites to make to the olympic trials in each class
( 8 per class ). If some else has other predictions post them, It'll be nice to see diferents points of view.

Dennis · Post by **Dennis** » 22 May 2007, 17:18

It is hard to make the predictions when I don't even know who will be competing. It would be great if USAB would post the rosters of all the Regional squads since that information was sent to them by the deadline of May 18th.

I can predict three of the spots per weight class very well - with probably about 98% accuracy. The PAL, GG and Armed Services champions - there may be a couple that pull out and a substitute goes due to injury, illness or other reasons.

The other 5 are very hard to pick especially since the luck (good or bad) of the draw has a lot to do with making it to the quarter-finals of the US Championships. Obviously if 2 of the boxers I select have to face each other prior to the quarter-finals one of them isn't going to make it to the box-offs.

Here is my best guess - I reserve the right to amend this list once (if) USAB posts all the regional teams. LOL.

106: Gabino Saenz, Adrian Ghisou, Luis Yanez, Jerail Singleton, Luis Rangel, Roberto Ceron, Diego Hurtado, Malcolm Franklin

112: Rau'shee Warren, Qa'id Muhammad, Aaron Alafa, Juan Leija, David Gaspar, John Franklin, Barry Dennis, Joseph Francisco

119: Gary Russell, Jr., Alex Ramos, Ronny Rios, Sergio Perales, Roberto Marroquin, Jorge Diaz, Sammy DiPace, David Clark

125: Rico Ramos, Rosey Summerville, Hylon Williams, Luis Ramos, Mark Davis, Ernesto Garza III, Luis Del Valle, Raynell Williams

132: Terence Crawford, James Villa, Sadam Ali, Gary Russell III, Miguel Gonzalez, Jerry Belmontes, Stan Martyniouk, Diego Magdaleno - I replaced Roman with Magdaleno. Tough decision.

141: Michael Dallas, Samuel Martinez, Brad Solomon, Karl Dargan, Jeremy Bryan, Javier Molina, Hector Vasquez, Danny Garcia - I replaced Orozco with Garcia now that USAB allowed Garcia to enter at 141. David de la Cruz and Hector Ramos are two boxers that I could see making it but they didn't make my final 8.

152: Keith Thurman, Boyd Melson, Demetrius Andrade, William Jackson, Jesse Lubash, Charles Hatley, Dominique Dolton, Greg Carter

165: Danny Jacobs, Zack Hardwick, Shawn Porter, Fernando Guerrero, Omar Henry, Jonathon Nelson, Shawn Estrada, Edwin Rodriguez

178: Yathomas Riley, Christopher Downs, Siju Shabazz, Angel Concepcion, De'Rae Crane, Bear Richardson, Joshua Garza, William Rosinsky

201: Jordan Shimmell, Adam Willett, Joe Guzman, Deontay Wilder, Joey Dawejko, Anthony Tettis, Craig Baker, James Zimmerman - no changes based upon the final entries. As in all weight classes it depends on the draw since 2 of these guys could face each other before the quarter-finals.

201+: Michael Hunter, Andrew Shepherd, Nathaniel James, Mike Wilson, Felix Stewart, Clarence Tillman, Jonte Willis, Kimdo Bethel - I'm picking Willis to make it but I still think he should have received a 30 day suspension which would have prevented him from being in this tourney.

My list is now edited based upon the entries listed on the USA Boxing website.

Anyone else want to provide their predictions?

WHO ARE THE FAVORITES FOR THE OLYMPIC TEAM NOW

Mike Wilson

Re: Mike Wilson