Derek Bilton
There comes a time in a gambling man's life when he must make a stand. When he must forego the opinion of so called experts, layers and other supposedly "in the know".
Saturday night may be one of those times.
Those who follow this column regularly will know that we have had some startling successes in 2003 betting on pugilistic outsiders.
Admittedly there have been some odds-on "howlers", but that is the nature of the gaming beast and despite not having checked myself, I am confident overall we have made a healthy profit on this year's boxing (upsets and all).
James Toney (twice), Corrie Sanders and Michael Gomez all spring to mind as gambles that have paid off handsomely when few people gave said boxers any sort of chance.
Sanders' win in particular is worthy of further inspection. Nobody, and I do mean nobody other than yours truly expected that old man from South Africa to upset heavyweight heir apparent Wladimir Klitschko in Germany back in March.
Sanders was as big as 12/1 in places going in, but exposed the man known as 'Steelhammer' by stopping him inside four chaotic minutes.
That win certainly made a din in the land of the big men, and on Saturday I might just have a man to do likewise against Klitschko the elder.
Vitali Klitschko, the man who pushed heavyweight ruler Lennox Lewis so close earlier this year, fights Kirk Johnson in a bout few expect him to lose.
Many think Vitali was desperately unlucky to lose (on cuts) to Lewis, and many more now regard him as the best heavyweight in the world right now.
Don't include me in any such reckoning however.
Watching him in with Lewis I saw a boxer who still looked sloppy, still looked outrageously robotic and still looked bereft of any real boxing skills other than a decent jab and wrecking ball right hand.
His movement was poor against Lewis, his stamina also questionable and I have no doubt that if the pair met again, Lewis would blow him away inside five rounds.
The irony was Lewis looked bad against Vitali because he was preparing to meet Kirk Johnson.
Johnson pulled out with a pectoral injury, meaning Lewis' sparring and preparation were obviously not suited to meeting a man who was much bigger and had such a different style.
Even if the above played no part in proceedings and the truth was/is Lewis is over the hill, why then could Vitali not finish the job?
If he really was that dominant and close to stopping Lewis, why did he not go in there and kill the old lion?
And why was he cut?
Why was he cut, by a punch thrown by a man who almost everyone wrote off as 'past it' afterwards?
I'll tell you why, because Vitali Klitschko, like his brother, is an average heavyweight.
Now I am not professing that Johnson is the second coming or anything like that, just that odds of 4/1 on him to beat the Ukrainian look too generous.
There are those in the trade who see Johnson as nothing more than a fat, average heavyweight.
Yet this fat, average heavyweight has never actually lost in the ring.
He was disqualified for low blows against John Ruíz, but Ruiz did more holding that a lovesick card shark in that fight and for me Johnson just got frustrated.
That farce aside, he has won 34 and drawn just once, and holds good wins over men such as Oleg Maskaev, Larry Donald and Lou Savarese.
Of those 34 wins, 25 have come inside schedule suggesting that he can bang a bit when the mood takes him.
He is a year younger than 'Dr Ironfist', a good mover and - more importantly - probably knows that there is little place to go if he chokes in this one.
Klitschko for his part is 32-2 as a pro, no mean record you may think.
However, on the two occasions he has been in with genuine world class operators, he has come a cropper.
Lewis and Chris Byrd both showed that Vitali does not like mixing it with a big man who can move.
And guess what?
Johnson is just that.
A big man, who can move, and who can punch.
'Team Klitschko' must also still privately have reservations about Vitali's eye, sliced open so horrifically against Lewis.
The cut, one of the worst I have seen in recent years, looked absolutely huge and I am just not sure that just over five months is long enough for an injury of that magnitude to heal.
If Johnson sticks to the gameplan and doesn't freeze on the night, he has the physical attributes and the boxing nous to cause huge ripple in the heavyweight pond.
On the same bill 'Baby' Joe Mesi squares off against seasoned Amerian Monte Barrett.
Mesi, regarded in some circles as the future of the heavyweight scene in the post-Lewis, Holyfield and Tyson era, has looked very impressive his career to date.
The Buffalo banger has racked up 27 wins (25 early) and beaten some decent names in Jorge Luis Gonzalez, David Izon and more recently DaVarryl Williamson in a career that looks more than promising.
He is a massive draw in his native New York, has fast hands, a solid defence and can really dig.
Barrett, for his part, is no fool and is 29-2 himself.
Again though, when he has been in with big names he has faltered.
Lance 'Goofi' Whitaker (he of the most outlandish nickname in sport) and Wladimir Klitschko have both beaten him, and Wladimir dumped him on the seat of his pants no less than five times in seven rounds in London back in 2000.
That does not bode well against a puncher like Mesi, and my guess is Monte gets stopped sometime in the middle of the fight.
The Mesi to win via KO, TKO or Disqualification is available at 5/6 with Bet365, and looks the call.
Betting Box Tipping Guide
Kirk Johnson to beat Vitali Klitschko at 4/1 (general). If Johnson is right he has the tools to cause a stir against the lumbering Ukrainian.
Joe Mesi to win via KO, TKO or Disqualification against Monte Barrett at 5/6 (Bet365). Mesi has a very good KO ratio and with the NY crowd on his side can 'do a job' on Barrett.
You can get 4/1 on Kirk Johnson to win!
Derek Bilton wrote, (parts sniped)
on the two occasions he has been in with genuine world class operators, he has come a cropper.
Lewis and Chris Byrd both showed that Vitali does not like mixing it with a big man who can move.
And guess what?
Johnson is just that.
I really don’t think “cropper” is a proper descriptive wording.
Vitali surprised a lot of people and was holding his own with Lennox when he was cut.
Did U see the way Lewis flopped on his stool in the last round?
Vitali injured himself beating Byrd like drum & was well ahead before pulling out.
Byrd is 6' 1½ and 215 lbs, hardly a big heavy.
At 260 lbs I have my doubts Johnson will be able to move well after the first few rounds of taking rights to the body.
He was well on his way to a loss when he decided to punk out & whack John “The Actor” in the unmentionables.
on the two occasions he has been in with genuine world class operators, he has come a cropper.
Lewis and Chris Byrd both showed that Vitali does not like mixing it with a big man who can move.
And guess what?
Johnson is just that.
I really don’t think “cropper” is a proper descriptive wording.
Vitali surprised a lot of people and was holding his own with Lennox when he was cut.
Did U see the way Lewis flopped on his stool in the last round?
Vitali injured himself beating Byrd like drum & was well ahead before pulling out.
Byrd is 6' 1½ and 215 lbs, hardly a big heavy.
At 260 lbs I have my doubts Johnson will be able to move well after the first few rounds of taking rights to the body.
He was well on his way to a loss when he decided to punk out & whack John “The Actor” in the unmentionables.