Why Vargas will win...

johnswan1 · Post by **johnswan1** » 23 Nov 2007, 07:22

With Vargas's far superior technique and skills, one would have to think that if Mayorga is to win this fight, it'll be by knockout. Unlikely to happen.

Some people still have the notion of Mayorga as being a heavy handed puncher. Not at this weight he won't be. He hasn't KO'd an opponent since Vernon Forrest back in 2003. Since then he has fought four times, twice at Middleweight and twice at Light Middleweight, and his record has been 2-2 with 0 KO's, and he has been knocked out twice. If he couldn’t knock out Eric Mitchell at Middleweight and Michele Piccirillo at Light Middle, then why should he be knocking out Vargas at Super Middle?

The beatings Mayorga took against De La Hoya and in particular Trinidad will surely have taken an awful lot out of him. Remember that Vargas was very competitive in the first fight against Mosley, before being beaten by the time of the weigh in for the second fight. This time I think it will be different. Although there is no doubting that both these fighters are well past their best, Vargas is by far the better fighter, will be more comfortable at the weight, and surely will be prepared to “put it all on the line” more than Mayorga. You can tell he wants to do it for his fans, to go out on a win, while Mayorga is simply being himself.

For me the De La Hoya fight told me a lot about Mayorga. Despite all the trash talk, it was he who turned away cowering from De La Hoya at the end of the fight. Even in the first round after being dropped, the guy actually looked afraid. The same cannot be said of Vargas. Against Mosley he was out of it, but I think he has by far the bigger heart. Against both Trinidad and De La Hoya he was heroic in defeat.

Bottom line, Vargas can only improve since his last outing against Mosley, and will be the stronger and hungrier fighter tonight. If Mayorga can show more heart than he did in the De La Hoya fight I can easily see him being on the receiving end of the type of beating he got off Trinidad.

Old bones Ian · Post by **Old bones Ian** » 23 Nov 2007, 07:46

Last time out Vargas looked seriously bad, his timing and movement weren't there. Maybe the long layoff (16 months) might have done him some good. Hard to believe Vargas is still only 29, so his body may be able to still do it.

Mayorga is also coming back after a bad beating by DLH, but he was more competitive in that fight than Vargas was against Moseley.
I can't stand Mayorga, but i feel he may have more left in the tank and win by late stoppage

stujones · Post by **stujones** » 23 Nov 2007, 07:49

Just a reminder - The fight is on Tonight on Setanta - Not tommorow its a Friday fight.

Looking forward to this one, nothing much on for it either- both shot goods - but when has either been in a dull one, and often two shot fighters squaring up often means a good scrap.

Couple of years back I would have gone for Vargas everytime - much more skillfull, hits hard enough to push Mayorga back. Even after Mosley II I would have tipped Vargas at Middleweight to do Mayorga. However, the weight he looked at the press conferences was no short of Shambolic... I am worried for Vargas' health in this one - Mayorga for me.

Raff The Frenchman · Post by **Raff The Frenchman** » 23 Nov 2007, 07:50

well, Vargas could stand against Mosley until being caught, while Mayorga got litterally anihilated by Oscar who is on the same level as Mosley.
the 2 beatings Mayorga took against Tito and Oscar will cost him here...Mayorga only knows how to brawl while Vargas actually has some boxing skills.

johnswan1 · Post by **johnswan1** » 23 Nov 2007, 07:55

Raff The Frenchman wrote:well, Vargas could stand against Mosley until being caught, while Mayorga got litterally anihilated by Oscar who is on the same level as Mosley.
the 2 beatings Mayorga took against Tito and Oscar will cost him here...Mayorga only knows how to brawl while Vargas actually has some boxing skills.

I would say the version of Mosley that Vargas faced is far better than the version of De La Hoya that Mayorga faced. Look at Mosleys performances since the Wright defeats, particularly against Collazo and Cotto, where he lost nothing in defeat. De La Hoya was coming off a long lay-off before beating up Mayorga.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » 23 Nov 2007, 07:57

Vargas by decision. He looks in fantastic shape, I think he'll have just enough in the tank to last 12 with a wildman like Mayorga. He'll win by 3/4 rounds....

MightyWarrior · Post by **MightyWarrior** » 23 Nov 2007, 08:45

I've liked both these two over the years, Mayorga because he's a wildman nutcase, and Vargas because he's a true Mexican warrior.

Both coming off 6 round knockout losses, which is weird for a pretty big fight like this. Hard to know for sure, but I think Vargas is the more shot of the two, and Mayorga holds a shot better.

I think he hits hard enough to finish of Vargas maybe.

Mayorga KO3

DavidPayne · Post by **DavidPayne** » 23 Nov 2007, 08:48

I think they could both be a stand-still by five rounds.

Throwing arm punches and hugging their shagged out bodies together.

Vargas should dominate as the bigger, stronger more equipped fighter.

Whether he can hold it together when he's knackered or gets chinned remains to be seen. Interesting, fight, didn't know it was on Setanta.

Chambers2 · Post by **Chambers2** » 23 Nov 2007, 11:09

stujones wrote:Just a reminder - The fight is on Tonight on Setanta - Not tommorow its a Friday fight.

Stuart I could kiss you X

I agree with JohnSwan, Vargas all the way for me. Mayorgas chin didn't look as solid as usual when DLH was landing (although there were some very good shots from a fired up Oscar), but I reckon a BIG 12 stone Vargas finishes this by the halfway mark. Backed a Vargas win with my mate Stan James

johnswan1 · Post by **johnswan1** » 24 Nov 2007, 01:37

Shocking. Round nine now. Don't think I've seen a fighter as shot as that. Offensively he has nothing.

HairyBoxe24 · Post by **HairyBoxe24** » 24 Nov 2007, 03:55

Vargas came in way to fat.. But he didn't do much worse then I expected, Mayorga just had more left then i thought, and was actually very hungry, so fair play to him.

Matt W · Post by **Matt W** » 24 Nov 2007, 10:09

I hadn't realised Vargas was only 29. F*cking hell.

I think that he is a real example of ill discipline ruining a career. You can point to the Tito loss but then look at the number of tough fights that boxers used to have. I don't believe he was ruined by that. I think he was ruined by weight-making.

And I know he suffered with injury but footballers and athletes suffer injury all the time and they don't pack on 5 stone.

Autobarn · Post by **Autobarn** » 24 Nov 2007, 10:12

verballistic wrote:
HairyBoxe24 wrote:Vargas came in way to fat.. But he didn't do much worse then I expected, Mayorga just had more left then i thought, and was actually very hungry, so fair play to him.
the fact that the prefight taunting was more meaningful then the matchup is one reason i didnt even watch that fiasco!!

i put this bout well below the jones-trinidad retread matchup and only slightly above the maske-hill debacle!! mayorga-vargas only came 3-4 years too late, unlike 8-9 years for hill-maske!!

I think the weight farce made it far worst than any. I just can't believe Showtime gave this te thumbs up. What a low point.

E · Post by E » 24 Nov 2007, 11:11

HairyBoxe24 wrote:Vargas came in way to fat.. But he didn't do much worse then I expected, Mayorga just had more left then i thought, and was actually very hungry, so fair play to him.

Vargas is also a bit punchy now - listen to him in the prefight interview...

BAMBI · Post by **BAMBI** » 24 Nov 2007, 11:36

the undercard fights were good to watch, so fair play..but i agree the vargas-mayorga shouldnt have been made as main event!!

Autobarn · Post by **Autobarn** » 24 Nov 2007, 12:35

Karmazin was razor sharp. Hope Showtime give him a decent fight. Won't get anywhere on King's steam alone.

Cintron was effing awful and his theatrics made him go down really far in my estimation. If he hadn't fought, we'd all be high on him for the Matthysse KO...

n1ebf · Post by **n1ebf** » 24 Nov 2007, 13:30

WHY'S THAT THEN JOHN ?

johnswan1 · Post by **johnswan1** » 24 Nov 2007, 14:07

Autobarn wrote:Karmazin was razor sharp. Hope Showtime give him a decent fight. Won't get anywhere on King's steam alone.

Cintron was effing awful and his theatrics made him go down really far in my estimation. If he hadn't fought, we'd all be high on him for the Matthysse KO...

I've seen Cintron fight maybe four or five times, and that's the second time I've seen him in tears at the end of a fight.

thepocketrocket · Post by **thepocketrocket** » 24 Nov 2007, 14:09

Vargas was a steroid monkey, since he has stiopped the roids his body has started falling apart!!!

Bye Fernando!!

chesh · Post by **chesh** » 24 Nov 2007, 14:23

Autobarn wrote:Cintron was effing awful and his theatrics made him go down really far in my estimation. If he hadn't fought, we'd all be high on him for the Matthysse KO...

You can see from his difficulty with Feliciano's in-fighting that his loss to Margarito wasn't just the "bad day at the office" he has subsequently claimed it to be. On last night's showing, he loses to Antonio ten times out of ten.

Norseman · Post by **Norseman** » 24 Nov 2007, 14:24

NorthEastBoxingFan wrote:WHY'S THAT THEN JOHN ?

Horse · Post by **Horse** » 24 Nov 2007, 14:34

Am I the only one who enjoyed Mayorga vs Vargas?

chesh · Post by **chesh** » 24 Nov 2007, 14:38

Horse wrote:Am I the only one who enjoyed Mayorga vs Vargas?

No, I enjoyed it. Fights between two "shot" fighters can often be very entertaining and competitive - e.g. Gatti-Ward, Ali-Frasier 3.

Autobarn · Post by **Autobarn** » 24 Nov 2007, 15:16

chesh wrote:
Autobarn wrote:Cintron was effing awful and his theatrics made him go down really far in my estimation. If he hadn't fought, we'd all be high on him for the Matthysse KO...
You can see from his difficulty with Feliciano's in-fighting that his loss to Margarito wasn't just the "bad day at the office" he has subsequently claimed it to be. On last night's showing, he loses to Antonio ten times out of ten.

great comeback fight for Margarito.

jamesmcdonnell · Post by **jamesmcdonnell** » 24 Nov 2007, 16:25

Quite pleased that I was right about this one. Mayorga was just that bit fresher than Vargas by the sounds of it. Good that Vargas is retiring, because he's been past it for a few years now, and with his various health problems, there's no returning to form.