Is Dec 8th a night to make a boxing fortune????

WildWaylon · Post by **WildWaylon** » 30 Nov 2007, 15:00

The quiet man 2004 wrote:I think Earl is as long as 5/1 with some bookies. After putting Willie Limond at 9/1, you think they'd learn.

Im convinced Earl will win this fight. I think Khan has got to stop him early, i feel he's very vulnerable once the 1st 3rd of the fight is out the way.

Been convinced all along Earl will win - Placed my bet about 3 weeks ago - Just to win no fancy round guessing.

ciscokid · Post by **ciscokid** » 30 Nov 2007, 17:14

I am after odds of Eastmnan getting a KO in the 2nd half of the fight - I stuck a few quid on him doing Williams for every rnd after the 6th and it came good (12th), I suspect the same will happen here..

I hate to say it - I can't see Hatton winning... My money for an outside bet is a draw..

Stegsie · Post by **Stegsie** » 30 Nov 2007, 17:48

ciscokid wrote:My money for an outside bet is a draw..

Agreed..... said it from the start that if it does go to the cards; there could be a controversial Draw.

25/1 the best I saw a while ago.

Grilling Machine · Post by **Grilling Machine** » 30 Nov 2007, 19:06

I'm tempted to back Earl, but if he loses I'd probably turn into a ranting conspiracy theorist. So I'll leave it. Allegedly ate my hamster! Mayweather by UD isn't worth bothering with. If Hatton wins and someone here's backed him, I'll take my hat off to them.

darkstar81 · Post by **darkstar81** » 01 Dec 2007, 08:24

Emotional hedge. Back Mayweather to win so if he does you make some money, and if Hatton wins you're happy!

Grilling Machine · Post by **Grilling Machine** » 01 Dec 2007, 16:45

That's true. Betting on Mayweather feels about as safe as you can get in boxing. I could well be paranoid or stupid, but I can't see Khan losing, despite thinking he isn't good enough to beat Earl yet. I suppose the ref will keep the fight at distance, letting speed win the day. Earl definitely needs a KO to win.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 02 Dec 2007, 14:45

http://www.oddschecker.co.uk

Right boys, the odds on Earl are LENGTHENING.. this is the only fight i'm bothered about.

What the fook is going on? Is it the classic non boxing fan rush to bet on Khan that's doing this?

I am debating 200 on earl but it's a little scary money to me...at least 100. The only problem is that there is no realistic hedge.

Maelstrom · Post by **Maelstrom** » 02 Dec 2007, 14:56

Riddick Blowe wrote:I am debating 200 on earl but it's a little scary money to me...at least 100. The only problem is that there is no realistic hedge.

Seriously mate... I have said it on a different thread: save your money. Earl is made for Khan and alledgedly knows that.

Do you seriously think he is going to risk the one attraction he has that appeals to terrestrial TV? Especially after the Limmond fight.

OK.. Limmond gave him unexpected nightmares, but that's because he is cagey. Earl will play into Khan's hands by coming onto him all night. Khan will pick him off and Earl isn't strong or powerful enough to be able to do anything about it.

The bet is Eastman. Trust me.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 02 Dec 2007, 15:03

frank found the ideal time to stick him in with earl- he's coming off a ko loss.

however, can you imagine how up for this earl will be? he has guts and khan shows no maturity in the way he fights.

if earl is capable to taking khan into the trenches, which i think he is, then he wins the fight.

you also don't seem to understand that even if earl is still the underdog but should be around 3/1 instead of 11/2- it's still a great bet assuming you take advantage of similar value for fights in the long term.

11/2 is monstrous value.

Maelstrom · Post by **Maelstrom** » 02 Dec 2007, 15:12

Riddick Blowe wrote:frank found the ideal time to stick him in with earl- he's coming off a ko loss.

however, can you imagine how up for this earl will be? he has guts and khan shows no maturity in the way he fights.

if earl is capable to taking khan into the trenches, which i think he is, then he wins the fight.

you also don't seem to understand that even if earl is still the underdog but should be around 3/1 instead of 11/2- it's still a great bet assuming you take advantage of similar value for fights in the long term.

11/2 is monstrous value.

OK mate.. do as you want. It's your money.

I know all about value betting, but there is something I learned the hard way several years ago....

Value is irrelevant if the bet won't come in.

More importantly I don't think this is good value. I simply feel Earl has no chance.

Maelstrom · Post by **Maelstrom** » 02 Dec 2007, 15:16

I should also say that if you did want to talk in terms of value, Eastman is the much more attractive bet.

I guess at the end of the day it comes down to opinions, but I genuinely feel that value betting is only worthwhile if you are going to adopt that practice over the long term across a wide range of markets.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 02 Dec 2007, 15:26

Maelstrom wrote:
Value is irrelevant if the bet won't come in.

.

not true in the slightest. If I make 10 bets of £10 each on 10 shit hot value bets, each at 5/1, and only 3 win, I have turned a profit.

This sort of bet is akin to Calzaghe PTS Salem (5/1), Glen johnson W Roy Jones (11/2) Enzo mac KO1 Gunn (11/2), etc.

to break even, 2 need to win. So assuming I'm betting the same every time (which I am) the calculation is, does Earl have more than a 20% chance of winning? Damn right he does.

The point is occasionally the bookies cock up big time and we aficianodoes swoop!

I've probably won about 70% of these golden bets overall. You do the math.

Maelstrom · Post by **Maelstrom** » 02 Dec 2007, 16:48

Riddick... my entire point was that out of ten bets of this nature, I don't believe one will come in.

But good luck to you....

overhand_right · Post by **overhand_right** » 03 Dec 2007, 07:55

Riddick Blowe wrote:www.oddschecker.co.uk

Right boys, the odds on Earl are LENGTHENING.. this is the only fight i'm bothered about.

What the fook is going on? Is it the classic non boxing fan rush to bet on Khan that's doing this?
.

Quality!

I'll leave it a day or two more. Earl is dodgy though Mr Blowe, 200 might be a bit heavy. Then again im so financially fooked...

overhand_right · Post by **overhand_right** » 03 Dec 2007, 07:56

Maelstrom wrote:Do you seriously think he is going to risk the one attraction he has that appeals to terrestrial TV? Especially after the Limmond fight.
.

Do you think that Khan/ITV pressuring Warren 'no more bums' has made this fight though mate? Do you honestly think ITV want to broadcast more pathetic losers like Steffy Bull and Scott Lawton?

Franks hardly gonna throw him in with Romanov or Thaxton (NON-Warren fights), if Khan loses he wants to be to his own fighter.

EARL!!

Chambers2 · Post by **Chambers2** » 03 Dec 2007, 10:10

Maelstrom wrote:
Riddick Blowe wrote:frank found the ideal time to stick him in with earl- he's coming off a ko loss.

however, can you imagine how up for this earl will be? he has guts and khan shows no maturity in the way he fights.

if earl is capable to taking khan into the trenches, which i think he is, then he wins the fight.

you also don't seem to understand that even if earl is still the underdog but should be around 3/1 instead of 11/2- it's still a great bet assuming you take advantage of similar value for fights in the long term.

11/2 is monstrous value.
OK mate.. do as you want. It's your money.

I know all about value betting, but there is something I learned the hard way several years ago....

Value is irrelevant if the bet won't come in.

More importantly I don't think this is good value. I simply feel Earl has no chance.

11/2 is great odds on Earl IMO. I have to keep talking myself out of putting more money on him