Sergey Kovalev vs. Anthony Yarde - 24 August 2019

[kbackup408]

K, interested to see how your eye test suggests Yarde can box with a bloke who outboxed Ward from the outside

Good point. Yarde's chances begin and end and kovalevs vulnerability. I'd give Yarde next to no chance vs the version SOG that Kovalev dropped and outpointed.

Perhaps the Kovalev in the first Ward bout (2016) but Kovalev post 2017 has been on a steady decline. Despite the Alvarez rematch think that was an outlier

[Teddy's Toupee]

These are all things you can see with your eyes and all factors that help bridge the gap in understanding that make Yarde a bettable proposition. Yes, we don’t know yet how Yarde will react when he’s hit - that’s the single biggest question mark.

I can- kinda- see your point on the 'eye test' and agree that 'unprovenness' doesn't automatically equate to 'no chance at all'

however i think you're drastically over-correcting in the other direction, and if you think how Yarde will react when he's hit is the biggest single question mark, you're drastically under-rating the importance of ringcraft and experience.

how will Yarde react when he's continually being feinted out of position by Kovalev, i think is at least as big an unknown as his chin. Yarde has never faced anyone who can control distance and timing with use of feints as Kovalev can.

i could see a situation where Yarde takes Kovalev's punches just fine, and still gets schooled for 12 rounds, just like Barrera did in the rematch. so there are many more factors at play here than 'can he take Kovalev's punch?'

i think your own polarisation of the debate, almost choosing to ignore the gap in experience, greatly underestimates that we have no idea at present whether Yarde will even manage to get close to Kovalev. Barrera is significantly more experienced and proven in ringsavviness, and when Kovalev had his boxing head on, Barrera barely won a round.

you're dealing (in Kovalev) with a guy who basically outboxed Ward from the outside, and you're rating a guy's chances against him who's never shown the slightest inkling of doing that at world level. I'm not going to say it's insane as such, but you're hardly even acknowledging that you're making a leap of faith on the basis of your confidence in the eye test, here, you're acting like this is all so obvious, that it's so obvious from the eye test that Yarde can hang with Kovalev; picking Yarde to win is a stretch and I can see from my eye-test that he's never had to fight anyone who can actually employ feints in a tactical manner.

at world level that's a pretty key skillset, never having even fvcking seen that skillset, never mind having coped with it, the bookies are absolutely right to price it as they have.

Kovalev's possible alcoholic decline is the only reason the odds aren't even wider, IMO

I don't want to be the pedant, but Kovalev hasn't boxed Barrera as a professional. He beat Alvarez in their rematch. I know that's who you meant.
I think Kovalev beats Yarde handily. I'd love to see McGirt v Ajayi. Would System9 prevail? No.

[Counter-puncher]

cheers

[TheLeprechaun]

Whenever someone is trying to do high level things like using reflexes for defense, copying Floyd/Roy etc, you have to be skeptical when they move up into world level doing that. Degale looked great with his style until he stepped up and it simply didn't work vs Groves and he struggled in most of his world level fights, Dirrell, Bute, Jack, Truax, Eubank, even before that at Euro level. Most of the Ingle gym look a million quid outclassing guys at Brit level and then it doesn't work at world level when you're up against world level timing, power, footwork etc. Most guys coming out of Philly/Mayweather gym get exposed at top level but look like world beaters a level or two below. It's very likely going to be the same with Yarde. I'd be shocked if he's catching Kovalev cleanly with his shots. The pull counter right he throws is something I've seen Kovalev draw from an opponent and then clobber him with his own right. I don't think the boxing skills of Kovalev are getting enough respect here.

A few weeks back Andrew Tabiti got flattened by Dorticos who was just a proven world level operator and utilized solid boxing skills. Tabiti went down as if he'd been shot. Tabiti had been showing high level skills and spent years in the Mayweather gym.

I actually gave Callum Johnson a better chance of beating Beterbiev than I give Yarde of being Kovalev because Johnson has solid fundamental boxing skills but it was a huge leap to translate that to world level. I don't think Yarde will have Kovalev in as much trouble as Johnson had Beterbiev. Matter of fact, I'd take Johnson to beat Yarde at this point.

One thing I will say though is that if Yarde does go in and win this convincingly, he has to be taken very seriously as a world level talent.

[KiwiRider]

Whenever someone is trying to do high level things like using reflexes for defense, copying Floyd/Roy etc, you have to be skeptical when they move up into world level doing that. Degale looked great with his style until he stepped up and it simply didn't work vs Groves and he struggled in most of his world level fights, Dirrell, Bute, Jack, Truax, Eubank, even before that at Euro level. Most of the Ingle gym look a million quid outclassing guys at Brit level and then it doesn't work at world level when you're up against world level timing, power, footwork etc. Most guys coming out of Philly/Mayweather gym get exposed at top level but look like world beaters a level or two below. It's very likely going to be the same with Yarde. I'd be shocked if he's catching Kovalev cleanly with his shots. The pull counter right he throws is something I've seen Kovalev draw from an opponent and then clobber him with his own right. I don't think the boxing skills of Kovalev are getting enough respect here.

A few weeks back Andrew Tabiti got flattened by Dorticos who was just a proven world level operator and utilized solid boxing skills. Tabiti went down as if he'd been shot. Tabiti had been showing high level skills and spent years in the Mayweather gym.

I actually gave Callum Johnson a better chance of beating Beterbiev than I give Yarde of being Kovalev because Johnson has solid fundamental boxing skills but it was a huge leap to translate that to world level. I don't think Yarde will have Kovalev in as much trouble as Johnson had Beterbiev. Matter of fact, I'd take Johnson to beat Yarde at this point.

One thing I will say though is that if Yarde does go in and win this convincingly, he has to be taken very seriously as a world level talent.

Nice post.
Agree about Johnson, and Yarde skipping over domestic matchups was a mistake IMO. If he does beat Kov good on him, but there is a vast gulf in experience.
I also like your point about Kov timing his counter right, seen him do that plenty of times. It actually deters his opponent from throwing rights after Kov blasts his counter.
Ward was recently saying Yarde only looks good because of his low level opposition, and how unprepared he is for this fight.

[polecateddy]

Yarde looks very flat footed and easy to hit. Kovalev has much faster and straighter punches. He will pick off Yarde at will. It really depends how much Yarde can take and how compassionate the referee on the night is.

[TheLeprechaun]

Nice post.
Agree about Johnson, and Yarde skipping over domestic matchups was a mistake IMO. If he does beat Kov good on him, but there is a vast gulf in experience.
I also like your point about Kov timing his counter right, seen him do that plenty of times. It actually deters his opponent from throwing rights after Kov blasts his counter.
Ward was recently saying Yarde only looks good because of his low level opposition, and how unprepared he is for this fight.

Agreed. Theres always going to be a bit of excitement when a fight like this happens though because of the potential for Yarde to show he is elite level. If Yarde outclasses Kovalev then you have to give him a very good chance vs the Gvosdyks, Bivols, Beterbievs etc. It seems ridiculous for me to even entertain that prospect but Yarde has a chance to put himself in that position.

[polecateddy]

I think people's judgement has gone with this fight. How can someone with just 12 amateur fights, and 18 pro fights against journeyan - none of which I've ever heard of - have anything other than a token punchers chance? It's going to be a horrible mismatch surely!

[Dirk Kelly]

Great article from one of our own:

https://t.co/bf8Uz4c6lt

[margaret thatcher]

Very good article by Terry Dooley up on Boxing News

https://www.boxingnewsonline.net/a-pict ... y-kovalev/

Edit--beat to it by a minute

[KiwiRider]

Very good article by Terry Dooley up on Boxing News

https://www.boxingnewsonline.net/a-pict ... y-kovalev/

Edit--beat to it by a minute

Fark!
That has to be the most frustrating link ever!!!
There is a pop up that only shows half of it on the bottom corner of my phone and you can't click on it to get rid of it. Stupid crap.

[liamlion]

I think people's judgement has gone with this fight. How can someone with just 12 amateur fights, and 18 pro fights against journeyan - none of which I've ever heard of - have anything other than a token punchers chance? It's going to be a horrible mismatch surely!

Yep, that has to be the obvious conclusion. It’s certainly what I’m expecting, though not what I’m hoping!

Yarde has totally swerved and avoided the domestic scene. To jump up to this level is dangerous.

[TheLeprechaun]

I think people's judgement has gone with this fight. How can someone with just 12 amateur fights, and 18 pro fights against journeyan - none of which I've ever heard of - have anything other than a token punchers chance? It's going to be a horrible mismatch surely!

I think it hit me when I was thinking about Yarde vs Bivol/Gvosdyk/Beterbiev. I really wouldn't give him a prayer. Yet he's supposed to have a good chance vs Kovalev?

[margaret thatcher]

No need to catastrophize, Yarde is likely winning

[polecateddy]

It's a bit like someone winning their county athletics championship in good style, and saying 'right, I'm ready now. I'm off to win that gold medal in the Olympics.' The more you think about this fight, the more the mind boggles.

[margaret thatcher]

Doesn't boggle at all, bigger mismatches all the time

[Delta Jay]

The key to this fight is distance and not letting Kovalev find his range

Kovalevs right hand will land over that rolling shoulder with ease if Yarde stands off him.

He needs to close the space and work the body hard and then move out of range. Easier said than done though.

Kovalev is a much better boxer than people give him credit for.

Exactly. The more I think about the styles, I’m consciences of Kov winning.

He has two separate sexual assault cases on the go, is supposedly an alcoholic and on the slide. He might just beat himself.

[Bigdogsnose]

Proper crossroads fights are the hardest to predict. So hard to gauge how much Kov has left v how good the untested Yarde really is.

Kovalev still looked sharp, confident+ more disciplined in his last fight. Yarde's took plenty of shots against his limited opponents, got to think its going to be a different ball game once he gets hit by Kov, who has been a top ten puncher in his prime, no doubt he has slipped a bit. Unless Yarde proves to have extremely good whiskers, I'm gonna say Kov to beat him down by 8-9. Yardes best shot is to close the distance and work him inside, not easy when kov has such a hurtful and accurate jab.

[Bard of Boxrec]

These are all things you can see with your eyes and all factors that help bridge the gap in understanding that make Yarde a bettable proposition. Yes, we don’t know yet how Yarde will react when he’s hit - that’s the single biggest question mark.

I can- kinda- see your point on the 'eye test' and agree that 'unprovenness' doesn't automatically equate to 'no chance at all'

however i think you're drastically over-correcting in the other direction, and if you think how Yarde will react when he's hit is the biggest single question mark, you're drastically under-rating the importance of ringcraft and experience.

how will Yarde react when he's continually being feinted out of position by Kovalev, i think is at least as big an unknown as his chin. Yarde has never faced anyone who can control distance and timing with use of feints as Kovalev can.

i could see a situation where Yarde takes Kovalev's punches just fine, and still gets schooled for 12 rounds, just like Barrera did in the rematch. so there are many more factors at play here than 'can he take Kovalev's punch?'

i think your own polarisation of the debate, almost choosing to ignore the gap in experience, greatly underestimates that we have no idea at present whether Yarde will even manage to get close to Kovalev. Barrera is significantly more experienced and proven in ringsavviness, and when Kovalev had his boxing head on, Barrera barely won a round.

you're dealing (in Kovalev) with a guy who basically outboxed Ward from the outside, and you're rating a guy's chances against him who's never shown the slightest inkling of doing that at world level. I'm not going to say it's insane as such, but you're hardly even acknowledging that you're making a leap of faith on the basis of your confidence in the eye test, here, you're acting like this is all so obvious, that it's so obvious from the eye test that Yarde can hang with Kovalev; picking Yarde to win is a stretch and I can see from my eye-test that he's never had to fight anyone who can actually employ feints in a tactical manner.

at world level that's a pretty key skillset, never having even fvcking seen that skillset, never mind having coped with it, the bookies are absolutely right to price it as they have.

Kovalev's possible alcoholic decline is the only reason the odds aren't even wider, IMO

First of all to reiterate, I haven’t picked Yarde yet and may still not. I was just trying to make a case for him when so many people were refusing to talk about what he actually does in the ring that gives him a chance here, and chose instead to discuss a load of other people he fought in the past.

Second I agree with you about how good kovalev is and what he does in the ring, I’ve written manifestos on what he brings to the table simply because he’s one of my favourite fighters of all time (not so much as a person).

So I agree that if the Ward I version of kovalev comes in, he’s at least competitive with anyone in light heavyweight history. I did say before that the problem Yarde has is that even if he can bring the skills I believe he has, Kovalev is a great fighter himself.

I think it’s implicit that Ward I is not the version we’re talking though. I was impressed with him in his last fight, but while Alvarez is a solid fighter I don’t really think he has the same tools as Yarde in this fight. And if it’s too early to say that because we’re not allowed to talk about Yarde’s skills until he’s deemed to have fought a ‘worthy’ opponent, then guilty I guess.

I’ve said it before in this thread. What would it take for Yarde to be considered ‘ready’ for this? There are always people moaning about how unprepared fighters are. Murat? Caparello? Chilemba? All of them? What’s this murderer’s row of helpfully skill set-variant challengers guys are facing these days before being unleashed, bearing in mind contenders don’t even fight each other anymore? Whyte is the most qualified ‘contender’ I can think of now, but I would suggest he’s a real anomaly in world boxing.

That’s actually an interesting study - what’s the average number of ‘stepup’ fights that prospects have before challenging for a title? I may be wrong, but off the top of my head in many cases there may be a glossy record but not a lot of depth, really, in a lot of cases.

Finally you talk about the odds being right, but the way you talk about Yarde’s chances, you’d have thought your price would be 4/1 Yarde rather than the 2/1 he’s being offered at. As more and more people put money on Yarde I’m starting to question the value.

[Counter-puncher]

If you want an eye-test context I came across a pertinent comment last night which points up something Leprechaun said earlier. If you're going to use the Philly shell you need to bend a lot from the waist, for someone who tries that style I think Yarde is far too upright, not having yet faced anyone to show him the error of his ways. Kind of like Broner tries to use it but too often gets caught upright with right hands over the top. Stylewise that's Yardes biggest problem here.

[Ruthless-RKO]

Kovalev (33-3-1, 28 KO) weighed in at 174.6 pounds and Yarde (18-0, 17 KO) at 173.9, both under the 175-pound limit.

[Ruthless-RKO]

[Delta Jay]

If you want an eye-test context I came across a pertinent comment last night which points up something Leprechaun said earlier. If you're going to use the Philly shell you need to bend a lot from the waist, for someone who tries that style I think Yarde is far too upright, not having yet faced anyone to show him the error of his ways. Kind of like Broner tries to use it but too often gets caught upright with right hands over the top. Stylewise that's Yardes biggest problem here.

Again, this is what I’m on about. I’ve seen Ryan Garcia use a “big stiff idiot” philly shell as well. Even if you just roll left to right, good timing on a straight right after a good feint would go straight through and Kov does that well.

Love a good shoulder roll and could talk a lot about them but I’m starting to think they’re being taught poorly, even to top fighters. It’s weird cos I’m certainly not an expert but the flaws seem blatant. Then David Price of all people whips it out a belter last time out.

[Nightmare Roy]

Lions in the camp

[Noxy]

Lions in the camp is growing on me now.