haye v valuev betting

[rhino222]

nipped into ladbrokes today to get a feel of the odds, 50-1 for valuev in the first, 40-1 for valuev in either rounds 2,3,4,5 or 6.....then the odds diminish slightly.

haye is about 22-1 i think if you bet round by round to stop valuev.

personally, these are fantastic odds for the russian giant against a smaller fella vulnerable to blows to the top of his barnet.

does this constitute a worthwhile flutter?

[jamesmcdonnell]

nipped into ladbrokes today to get a feel of the odds, 50-1 for valuev in the first, 40-1 for valuev in either rounds 2,3,4,5 or 6.....then the odds diminish slightly.

haye is about 22-1 i think if you bet round by round to stop valuev.

personally, these are fantastic odds for the russian giant against a smaller fella vulnerable to blows to the top of his barnet.

does this constitute a worthwhile flutter?

Well, work it out.

I make Valuev 58 - 42 favourite take two off for the draw, off of Haye as I think he's up against it.

So if Valuev has 58 percent chance to win, what percentage is his chance of winning by KO, I say it's more likely than not given Haye's size and frailties - so I'll go 38% ko, leaving 20% for the win by points.

That 38% I would say is weighed more over the latter half, so just over half, let's say 22% for rounds 7-12.


I make that 16% for first 6 rounds, or roughly 2.6% per round (an average of course, weighting is of course up to you), or 3.6% per round over the last 6 rounds.

The market seems about in Line with what I think, and therefore it's not particularly good value.

[Deno1986]

I got Valuev @ 11/2 to win by KO a few weeks ago in Boylesports which I thought was very generous, he has since dropped down to 4/1. I also backed him @ 3/1 to win by decision.

I think Valuev has more chance of stoppping him in the later rounds however but you never know.

[Chambers2]

Totesport have Haye at 33/1 for each of the first 6 rounds, I've had to have abit of that

[Bard of Boxrec]

nipped into ladbrokes today to get a feel of the odds, 50-1 for valuev in the first, 40-1 for valuev in either rounds 2,3,4,5 or 6.....then the odds diminish slightly.

haye is about 22-1 i think if you bet round by round to stop valuev.

personally, these are fantastic odds for the russian giant against a smaller fella vulnerable to blows to the top of his barnet.

does this constitute a worthwhile flutter?

Well, work it out.

I make Valuev 58 - 42 favourite take two off for the draw, off of Haye as I think he's up against it.

So if Valuev has 58 percent chance to win, what percentage is his chance of winning by KO, I say it's more likely than not given Haye's size and frailties - so I'll go 38% ko, leaving 20% for the win by points.

That 38% I would say is weighed more over the latter half, so just over half, let's say 22% for rounds 7-12.


I make that 16% for first 6 rounds, or roughly 2.6% per round (an average of course, weighting is of course up to you), or 3.6% per round over the last 6 rounds.

The market seems about in Line with what I think, and therefore it's not particularly good value.

If Haye is getting stopped, it won't take until the latter half of the fight. He would need to avoid everything Valuev has for that duration, and I really can't see how he can.

Haye is going down, and early, in my opinion. If I'm wrong, great, if I'm right, it's £££badda bing badda ka-ching£££. I also got Valuev KO1 when it was 80/1, don't tell me that isnt valuetown.

[Hagler2002]

I don't even think this will be close, Haye will win this with ease.

[Bard of Boxrec]

By the way James if you make it 16% chance of Haye going down in the first 6 get your money on Ladbrokes Valuev KO 1-6 at odds of 9/1.

I personally can only see Haye winning if he throws caution to the wind and somehow manage to drill Valuev with a barrage of clean shots, and hurt him.

I make that about 15% chance, with Haye on points less likely for me just because of what he'd have to walk through/avoid to get there. 10% Haye on points for me and thats being generous.

That's 75-25 Valuev and I think I'm being generous. Of that, you've got to favour the giant to land on Haye pretty early in the fight. Haye was on queer street vs Mormeck, Thompson, Mock - Valuev has more than enough to put him away. Haye will be too static a target in the event, not being attuned to the type of box/lateral movement style needed to outwork Valuev. I have to say I favour Valuev heavily to get this done by KO - maybe 70%, and of that the first 6 rounds say 50% chance at least to me.

If you think Haye is going to win this, you've really got to ask yourself how. Valuev has shown a tough chin throughout his career. Haye has shown weakness in that area even against smaller men. If Haye tries to launch an attack, he will be reaching and off balance, leaving him open. Combine this with the probability that he will need more than just one well-time bomb landing on Valuev to take out the big guy, and you have a situation where Haye is perpetually reaching in, at risk of a booming right hand or even heavy jab which could, based on past experience, take his block off.

If Haye decides to try and take the box and move route, he'll be employing a style he is not even close to being familiar with, he will be uncomfortable. He will still need to battle his way on the inside to land those body shots then get out again, but he doesn't have the quickness of foot or natural upper body movement to accomplish this, not to mention the amount of danger he will put himself in trying.

In short, Haye can't afford to make mistakes and still, even if he somehow hears the final bell and fought well, might be jobbed on points. Valuev could make a few mistakes but you feel like as long as he can get off a decent amount of jabs and right hands he can win very quickly.

[Hagler2002]

By the way James if you make it 16% chance of Haye going down in the first 6 get your money on Ladbrokes Valuev KO 1-6 at odds of 9/1.

I personally can only see Haye winning if he throws caution to the wind and somehow manage to drill Valuev with a barrage of clean shots, and hurt him.

I make that about 15% chance, with Haye on points less likely for me just because of what he'd have to walk through/avoid to get there. 10% Haye on points for me and thats being generous.

That's 75-25 Valuev and I think I'm being generous. Of that, you've got to favour the giant to land on Haye pretty early in the fight. Haye was on queer street vs Mormeck, Thompson, Mock - Valuev has more than enough to put him away. Haye will be too static a target in the event, not being attuned to the type of box/lateral movement style needed to outwork Valuev. I have to say I favour Valuev heavily to get this done by KO - maybe 70%, and of that the first 6 rounds say 50% chance at least to me.

If you think Haye is going to win this, you've really got to ask yourself how. Valuev has shown a tough chin throughout his career. Haye has shown weakness in that area even against smaller men. If Haye tries to launch an attack, he will be reaching and off balance, leaving him open. Combine this with the probability that he will need more than just one well-time bomb landing on Valuev to take out the big guy, and you have a situation where Haye is perpetually reaching in, at risk of a booming right hand or even heavy jab which could, based on past experience, take his block off.

If Haye decides to try and take the box and move route, he'll be employing a style he is not even close to being familiar with, he will be uncomfortable. He will still need to battle his way on the inside to land those body shots then get out again, but he doesn't have the quickness of foot or natural upper body movement to accomplish this, not to mention the amount of danger he will put himself in trying.

In short, Haye can't afford to make mistakes and still, even if he somehow hears the final bell and fought well, might be jobbed on points. Valuev could make a few mistakes but you feel like as long as he can get off a decent amount of jabs and right hands he can win very quickly.

Are we talking about the same Valuev who has one KO win in 3yrs, got beat off Chagaev and was awarded a shocking decision against Holyfield?

Why all of a sudden are people going on as if he is a World beater, he is terrible! Haye will do a number on him.

[Bard of Boxrec]

how can haye win then? give me some details if you think it's such a walkover for him.

[jamesmcdonnell]

By the way James if you make it 16% chance of Haye going down in the first 6 get your money on Ladbrokes Valuev KO 1-6 at odds of 9/1.

I personally can only see Haye winning if he throws caution to the wind and somehow manage to drill Valuev with a barrage of clean shots, and hurt him.

I make that about 15% chance, with Haye on points less likely for me just because of what he'd have to walk through/avoid to get there. 10% Haye on points for me and thats being generous.

That's 75-25 Valuev and I think I'm being generous. Of that, you've got to favour the giant to land on Haye pretty early in the fight. Haye was on queer street vs Mormeck, Thompson, Mock - Valuev has more than enough to put him away. Haye will be too static a target in the event, not being attuned to the type of box/lateral movement style needed to outwork Valuev. I have to say I favour Valuev heavily to get this done by KO - maybe 70%, and of that the first 6 rounds say 50% chance at least to me.

If you think Haye is going to win this, you've really got to ask yourself how. Valuev has shown a tough chin throughout his career. Haye has shown weakness in that area even against smaller men. If Haye tries to launch an attack, he will be reaching and off balance, leaving him open. Combine this with the probability that he will need more than just one well-time bomb landing on Valuev to take out the big guy, and you have a situation where Haye is perpetually reaching in, at risk of a booming right hand or even heavy jab which could, based on past experience, take his block off.

If Haye decides to try and take the box and move route, he'll be employing a style he is not even close to being familiar with, he will be uncomfortable. He will still need to battle his way on the inside to land those body shots then get out again, but he doesn't have the quickness of foot or natural upper body movement to accomplish this, not to mention the amount of danger he will put himself in trying.

In short, Haye can't afford to make mistakes and still, even if he somehow hears the final bell and fought well, might be jobbed on points. Valuev could make a few mistakes but you feel like as long as he can get off a decent amount of jabs and right hands he can win very quickly.

The counterpoint to that, is that Valuev has looked slower in recent performances, and he seems to have lost some of his power too. He was surprisingly fast early in his career - able to open up with both hands and land some really meaty shots - it's a while since he's done this.

[jamesmcdonnell]

By the way James if you make it 16% chance of Haye going down in the first 6 get your money on Ladbrokes Valuev KO 1-6 at odds of 9/1.

I personally can only see Haye winning if he throws caution to the wind and somehow manage to drill Valuev with a barrage of clean shots, and hurt him.

I make that about 15% chance, with Haye on points less likely for me just because of what he'd have to walk through/avoid to get there. 10% Haye on points for me and thats being generous.

That's 75-25 Valuev and I think I'm being generous. Of that, you've got to favour the giant to land on Haye pretty early in the fight. Haye was on queer street vs Mormeck, Thompson, Mock - Valuev has more than enough to put him away. Haye will be too static a target in the event, not being attuned to the type of box/lateral movement style needed to outwork Valuev. I have to say I favour Valuev heavily to get this done by KO - maybe 70%, and of that the first 6 rounds say 50% chance at least to me.

If you think Haye is going to win this, you've really got to ask yourself how. Valuev has shown a tough chin throughout his career. Haye has shown weakness in that area even against smaller men. If Haye tries to launch an attack, he will be reaching and off balance, leaving him open. Combine this with the probability that he will need more than just one well-time bomb landing on Valuev to take out the big guy, and you have a situation where Haye is perpetually reaching in, at risk of a booming right hand or even heavy jab which could, based on past experience, take his block off.

If Haye decides to try and take the box and move route, he'll be employing a style he is not even close to being familiar with, he will be uncomfortable. He will still need to battle his way on the inside to land those body shots then get out again, but he doesn't have the quickness of foot or natural upper body movement to accomplish this, not to mention the amount of danger he will put himself in trying.

In short, Haye can't afford to make mistakes and still, even if he somehow hears the final bell and fought well, might be jobbed on points. Valuev could make a few mistakes but you feel like as long as he can get off a decent amount of jabs and right hands he can win very quickly.

I think it's also possible that haye can avoid Valuev early on, I think it's more likely that as he slows as he always does, Valuev lands with more regularity and grinds him down.

[gobbles]

I can't see how Haye wins unless he runs. Too small, too chinny, no stamina

[n1ebf]

I don't even think this will be close, Haye will win this with ease.

...did sumone mention betting. Like a fly round sh*t.

Oh no splinters today eh??

[n1ebf]

I can't see how Haye wins unless he runs. Too small, too chinny, no stamina

yep. Haye cuts and bruises up and slides to a Unanimous.........or, he could have a bad night and get TKO'd

[Nightmare Roy]

I don't even think this will be close, Haye will win this with ease.

Ditto, Holyfield was 72 and kicked his ass!

[Hagler2002]

I don't even think this will be close, Haye will win this with ease.

...did sumone mention betting. Like a fly round sh*t.

Oh no splinters today eh??

I'm sure that Haye beats Valuev as easy as Booth hammered Hunter

And since when did it concern you what topic of thread I post in? fecking stalking freak

[Top Dog]

You guys ALL miss the point! It doesnt matter if Haye wins by points he aint gonna get it over there, never ever. He could win every round and still lose 120-108, cheating germans, ahm tellin you D His ONLY chance is to finish Shrek off in the early rounds, later on Haye will be knackered so it aint gonna happen then

[TerribleTerry]

I don't even think this will be close, Haye will win this with ease.

Ditto, Holyfield was 72 and kicked his ass!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdjblkRkoPU

[Hagler2002]

If |Haye had Holyfield's chin I would be 95% sure he'd win...but he doesn't and therein lies the problem.

Whats wrong with his chin?

[martinmrts]

ladbrokes have it 11/10 not to go the distance - worth a poke ?

[Wales]

The only counter to that*, and its what Haggler is going to come back with is..

ABA's hardly count
Staggered, well name a fighter that hasnt been staggered
He wasnt KO'd by Thomspon, he gassed and was stopped on his feet
Mormeck and Barret - down, straight up and leathered them.

Valuev was rocked to the soles of his boots by a canadian heavy in the 2nd round, cant remember the guys name now.


*Incidentally I'm with you I think haye is vunerable to a 24stone hook form the beast, especially if he gets all gun ho and swing happy.

[Hagler2002]

If |Haye had Holyfield's chin I would be 95% sure he'd win...but he doesn't and therein lies the problem.

Whats wrong with his chin?

I assune you're joking????? Being knocked out by Jim Twite as a light heavy in the Abas, staggered badly by joourneyman Lolenga Mock, ko'd by thompson, knocked down by Mormeck and Barrett and never fought a live heavyweight - and you're questioning me questioning his chin? (Not to mention rumours of being Ko'd by David Price in sparring....)

I'll question his chin when he gets sparked out off someone, until then to say he has a bad chin is nothing more than a myth.

[Chambers2]

I'll question his chin when he gets sparked out off someone, until then to say he has a bad chin is nothing more than a myth.

I agree

[GlobalBox]

Money seems to be coming for Valuev outright and by ko now, suppose it was only a matter of time before it shifted towards a more level fight, Valuev home advantage plus all the physical attributes against the more talented smaller away fighter.

50/50 and the odds should represent that, anyone who is sure of the outcome is nothing short of a genius, I could see a case for all 5 results here really

Either on Pts
Either on Ko
Draw

none of the above would surprise me to be honest.

Be interesting to see how the odds shift or not by the first bell

[n1ebf]

thanks for the tip GB

I think Haye will come out bruised up a bit and slide to a deserved (but would have been anyway) points defeat. The Russian has the (far) greater capacity for the KO in my opinion, but Valuev likes the poetry and shooting innocent bears with big guns. He's not going to go in there all Mike Tyson looking to get Haye out. If Haye makes it past halfway, which I hope he does but he needs to be careful with the whiskers.....then bet your bottom dollar Valuev will be happy to just plod away and pop the jab and not have any aggro.
Haye will return to fight another day.
Haye can forget being retired by 30 or 31 as he's said he wants to be. Haye will in no way wrap up the Heavy scene (worth gazillions). He will spend a few years getting fights against big men like this and struggling IMHO. In the end I think he'll settle for a single title at Heavy and a (mandatory) defence or 2 if he can hanndle it.