Sergio Martinez vs Kelly Pavlik predictions...

[rob12344]

Such an absolute shambles that this fight isn't being shown over here.

How does everyone see it going?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Sergio Martinez will dominate this fight. I actually think this fight will be an easy fight for him and he will win it clearly.

Pavlik is flat footed and needs to be set to punch. He has a basic punch variety, consisting of the old 1-2, and the occasional uppercuts on the inside. He does throw hooks but from distance he desperately needs his jab to be effective so that he can land the big shots. Sergio Martinez will take away his jab.

I expect Martinez to be much faster of hands and feet and constantly moving. This means Pavlik is going to have trouble landing the jab. Not only that, but he is going to be a sitting duck for Martinez who likes to throw as he comes in and then hold on the inside. Martinez will be coming in with the in and out game and Pavlik will be too slow to stop it. If he starts reaching with his jab and trying to double up the jab (which is the only advice his cornerman seems to give him), he'll walk into huge counters from martinez, who KO'd Cintron and rocked Williams several times. Martinez has power when he sits on his punches, and Pavlik can be rocked, as he was by Taylor and Hopkins.

I don't see how Pavlik can really get to Martinez in the fight and I think it will be easier than everyone expects. Remember, 43 year old Hopkins won every round against Pavlik and could have had him out of there if he turned it up.

As for Pavlik, he has power indeed, but I don't think he is going to have much success landing his power right hand. Martinez has shown the ability to take Cintron and Williams punches too, so although Pavlik probably hits harder, I have some confidence in martinez, since he hardly ever gets hit flush because he rolls with the punches.

So it's a clear win for Martinez for me.. I always take the more skilled boxer over the basic plodder.

[Jeff Thomas]

Martinez will be too small, the one major problem he had with Williams was dealing with his dimensions. Here he'll be faced with similar problems but this time won't have the physical advantage once he gets inside. I like Martinez and think Pavlik is a pile of shit but size will matter in this fight.

[idle talk]

i havnt seen alot of martinez but i think pavlik will win by ko

[mickey1975]

The "basic plodder" has knocked out Jermain Taylor FFS.Come on,lad's,step the knowledge up a bit.I personally wouldnt bet on it,but think Pavlik will win.U.S.A is the new Germany in my eyes after watching the latest 360

[whiskey]

I think Pavlik will be back to his old self in this fight.

If he is, then he brutalises Martinez late on... but if he isn't he loses a thin decision.

[Hagler2002]

I'm on Martinez here and I'm having a substantial bet on it it also, this one has been on the betting radar for a while.

[Deserter]

I fancy Martinez by reasonably close decision on this one. I think the manner of the Hopkins defeat really damaged Pavlik's confidence and we know how much of a fight at world level can be affected by mindset. That, coupled with his well-documented struggles outside of the ring in the last couple of years, lead me to think that Martinez is getting him at just the right time.
The size difference will be a factor, which is why I don't see Martinez dominating, but I think he's got the skillset to outbox Pavlik for long periods, while avoiding the bombs coming his way.

[twenty six]

There is a vested interest here in Seffield because if Martinez prevails, he's likely to stay at Middle and vacate at Light Middle.
If he fails, then a mandatory should be appointed pretty swiftly for the Light Middle title, so let's hope Rhodes gets a look in.
I've a sneaky feeling for Martinez.

[Roars Like Me]

I think Martinez wins by UD due to his skills and the fact he can get on his bike when he wants to.
The comment about Hopkins outboxing him for 12 may be true but he forced Pavlik to fight up in weight, in this scenario Martinez is the one coming up so that is my only concern.

[el_grande_mauro_mina]

Martinez will box this guys head off and win widely but Pavlik has the promotional muscle to get the desicion. This is the state of boxing today.

[rob12344]

Martinez will box this guys head off and win widely but Pavlik has the promotional muscle to get the desicion. This is the state of boxing today.

Thats what I'm worried about but I don't think they can rob Martinez because he's going to be so dominant. However, stranger things have happened and Pavlik does bring in a lot of money. I don't know how the judges gave him some rounds in the Hopkins fight.

[banjo]

I'm going for Martinez by decision.

[Bomber 1]

Pavlik by KO or stoppage.. it'll be tough but Pavlik's power will be the difference!!

[deano92]

Martinez decision - too much movement and speed.

[big lennox]

I think Martinez.He has the speed and movement to really trouble Pavlik, who has looked out of sorts ever since the Hopkins fight, to my mind at least.

[Autobarn]

Pavlik by KO or stoppage.. it'll be tough but Pavlik's power will be the difference!!

i want martinez to win, and i think he can seriously frustrate pavlik. but i wonder if pavlik is just too big.

martinez has been tough recently, but in many fights he has shown fragility (richard williams, adrian stone, antonio margarito).

i'm picking martinez but he'll have to be perfect to pull this off.

[glahn]

I'm worried by the number of people picking Martinez! I think it's easy to underestimate Pavlik right now for a number of reasons but style-wise and on paper I think there is a good argument for picking Martinez. It's a fascinating fight for me. I can see the Argentinian being jobbed a la Cintron though, if I'm being honest.

[rob12344]

Pavlik by KO or stoppage.. it'll be tough but Pavlik's power will be the difference!!

Skills pay the bills bomber!

[el_grande_mauro_mina]

Pavlik by KO or stoppage.. it'll be tough but Pavlik's power will be the difference!!

Skills pay the bills bomber!

Especially when the other guy has got very little skills in comparison! I don't think Paviliks size will be that much of an issue - Martinez is a big light middleweight anyway. I don't think Pavlik has the nous, the speed or the skillset to bully around, never mind stop Martinez.

[Autobarn]

i'm not sure whether it'll be tougher or easier than the williams fight, for sergio martinez.

i mean, technially, it should be easier, as martinez can use his smooth skills, his speed, his angles, on a guy who is orthodox, straight forward, who throws one punch at a time.

but physically, it should be very hard. pavlik's height & reach may make it hard for martinez to get in, punch, get out. pavlik's strength and power make it a tall order.

hopefully martinez frustrates pavlik early, bemuses him with combos, wears him down with quick combos, and wins 8 rounds decisively to make sure he gets the decision.

[Counter-puncher]

Such an absolute shambles that this fight isn't being shown over here.

How does everyone see it going?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Sergio Martinez will dominate this fight. I actually think this fight will be an easy fight for him and he will win it clearly.

Pavlik is flat footed and needs to be set to punch. He has a basic punch variety, consisting of the old 1-2, and the occasional uppercuts on the inside. He does throw hooks but from distance he desperately needs his jab to be effective so that he can land the big shots. Sergio Martinez will take away his jab.

I expect Martinez to be much faster of hands and feet and constantly moving. This means Pavlik is going to have trouble landing the jab. Not only that, but he is going to be a sitting duck for Martinez who likes to throw as he comes in and then hold on the inside. Martinez will be coming in with the in and out game and Pavlik will be too slow to stop it. If he starts reaching with his jab and trying to double up the jab (which is the only advice his cornerman seems to give him), he'll walk into huge counters from martinez, who KO'd Cintron and rocked Williams several times. Martinez has power when he sits on his punches, and Pavlik can be rocked, as he was by Taylor and Hopkins.

I don't see how Pavlik can really get to Martinez in the fight and I think it will be easier than everyone expects. Remember, 43 year old Hopkins won every round against Pavlik and could have had him out of there if he turned it up.

As for Pavlik, he has power indeed, but I don't think he is going to have much success landing his power right hand. Martinez has shown the ability to take Cintron and Williams punches too, so although Pavlik probably hits harder, I have some confidence in martinez, since he hardly ever gets hit flush because he rolls with the punches.

So it's a clear win for Martinez for me.. I always take the more skilled boxer over the basic plodder.

on instinct i agree with pretty much every word of this and it's what i thought when this fight was first mentioned

[Autobarn]

i'm hoping martinez dominates, as i'd like him to get the win.

but it's hard to outbox an opponent who's so much bigger. even larry holmes, when he fought gerry cooney, had some really tough rounds. ok it's harder for 220-pound heavyweights to do the elegant, in and out stuff.

i hope martinez calzaghe-lacys him. but has the williams fight taken something out of him? can he use excellent movement for 12 rounds, carrying 160-pounds?

not keen on pavlik any more. he's a giant middleweight who wants to fight welters and light middles moving up (martinez, williams and margarito) rather than going up and challenging bute.

[Counter-puncher]

Pav's an upright, jab-first guy without good footwork, punch variety or handspeed

those types often struggle against lefties, the angle messes up the jab that everything works off for Pavlik

anyone want to bet how long it takes before Jack Loew tells Pavlik what he really needs to do, what will really help him here, is 'double the jab, straight right hand' ?????

[rob12344]

Pav's an upright, jab-first guy without good footwork, punch variety or handspeed

those types often struggle against lefties, the angle messes up the jab that everything works off for Pavlik

anyone want to bet how long it takes before Jack Loew tells Pavlik what he really needs to do, what will really help him here, is 'double the jab, straight right hand' ?????

That's all he can say in the corner. He really would be collecting garbage bins if Pavlik hadn't been dropped on his doorstep. Pavlik is probably impossible to beat if you are going to stand right in front of him, but if you use your legs it's easy. This fight is a genuine mismatch and WHEN Martinez wins, I am going to be collecting a lot of money.

I don't expect Pavlik to win 30 seconds of any round. He will get outboxed and lose every round.

[Autobarn]

Pav's an upright, jab-first guy without good footwork, punch variety or handspeed

those types often struggle against lefties, the angle messes up the jab that everything works off for Pavlik

anyone want to bet how long it takes before Jack Loew tells Pavlik what he really needs to do, what will really help him here, is 'double the jab, straight right hand' ?????

i wonder if/when pavlik will be weak at the weight. he seems too big to be a middleweight and is still making 160.

pavlik is a big danger, but on martinez's side, pavlik has not improved since winning the title.