The Secret to Fantasy Boxer Match-ups Revealed

[kal.majeed]

First, I would like to give special thanks to BoxRec.com – an online boxing database with all the extras; they have been most helpful and professional in assisting me with a challenging task of researching the world’s most complex sport. For those familiar with BoxRec.com, perhaps you saw my post on the Record Queries & Updates section in their forum postings. If not, you may want to check it out to understand a little about my work. Part of a section in my upcoming book deals specifically with boxer (fantasy) match-ups and it is based upon a fully documented system (i.e. proof). Here is a basic example (needless to say I cannot give away all the details about the system until the book is published): the Ray Mercer vs. Oliver McCall match up (listed in this forum section) is one of the easier ones to evaluate; Mercer peaks in 1991 with a KO 9 win over an undefeated champion Damiani (winning the WBO heavyweight title). McCall also peaks in 1991 with a TKO 9 win over an undefeated and future heavyweight champion in Bruce Seldon. Since there are virtually no differences in the peak year, level of win or quality of competition, this 1991 “paper match-up” is deemed a draw (D 12 - no knockdowns for either boxer).

Note: It is a statistical/probability system; therefore, one needs to be somewhat reasonable. Also, how many times has one heard, “If he were only ten years younger” – such as when an old Archie Moore loses to Marciano [in Marciano’s final career bout] or “If he were only at his peak” – such as when an old Larry Holmes loses to Mike Tyson [two years into Tyson’s peak]? There is much truth to these statements and they are quite simple to validate (as will be shown in the book). The most difficult aspects are divisional match-ups from different eras such as 1970s’ light-heavyweight champion Bob Foster vs. 1980s’ heavyweight champion Mike Tyson (it is not as odd as it appears). Again, there are many variables and intangibles – all resulting from nearly three decades of research.

This is another match-up in forum section that I can comment on without giving away excessive system details: a Tyson/Foreman match-up (1991 version – ex-champion Tyson vs. an old George Foreman). Again, in many cases, the answers are already documented [to one degree or another]. Putting aside the controversial referee stoppage in 1991, Tyson wins (UD 12) over top contender, power puncher and once stopped Donovan “Razor” Ruddock. In 1991, Foreman loses (UD 12) to a peaking and undefeated heavyweight champion in Evander Holyfield. Although there are a number of variables and intangibles involved, it is doubtful that Foreman can perform much better than does Ruddock or that Tyson can perform much better than does Holyfield. Therefore, Tyson wins (UD 12; no knockdowns for either boxer – but it is a close one). Incidentally, the proposed November 8th 1991 match between Holyfield and Tyson (cancelled because of a Tyson injury – with Tyson later convicted and imprisoned) will be a draw in a 1991 “paper match” (D 12 - no knockdowns for either boxer) – if one does a change of opponents (remove Ruddock and Foreman).

Note: A Tyson vs. an old Foreman “paper match” cannot take place any earlier since George does not have a high caliber match (win or lose) prior to 1991 (again, the old version of Foreman).

Bonus: Does everyone forget about this one: Riddick Bowe and Lennox Lewis (Bowe throws the WBC heavyweight title into the garbage rather than fight Lewis)? Ahh, now you remember, right? Analysis: In 1993, Lewis defends the WBC heavyweight title (from the garbage) against the once defeated (via UD 12) and former heavyweight champion Tony Tucker – Lewis wins UD 12 (scoring two knockdowns). That same year, Bowe defends the WBA and IBF heavyweight titles against the once defeated (via UD 12) and former heavyweight champion in Evander Holyfield – Holyfield wins (MD 12 - only the “fan-man” is knocked down, remember?). The Holyfield decision win is controversial since Bowe actually out-lands Holyfield in the punch-count. Since Bowe and Lewis can definitely outperform their ex-champion counterparts (Tucker and Holyfield) – there will be no knockdowns but the punch-stats will be virtually even and the decision in a Bowe/Lewis 1993 “paper match” is fairly deemed a draw (D 12).

Note: Tucker is an older boxer (by four years) from an earlier era winning the heavyweight title in 1987, whereas Holyfield first wins the heavyweight title in 1990 and regains it for a third time in 1996 (via a TKO 11 win over Tyson). Hence, Holyfield (in 1993) is the higher level performing ex-champion (and opponent). Also, Bowe is the first to stop Holyfield (in their rubber-match), whereas Lewis never even knocks Holyfield down in either of their two matches.

Bonus II: Mike McCallum never forgives Marvin Hagler for not giving Mike a much deserved shot at Marvin’s middleweight title and a guaranteed mega-payday. Analysis: In 1987, the twice defeated but never stopped Hagler loses his middleweight title by a controversial decision (SD 12) to Ray Leonard. Just one year later, McCallum suffers his first professional defeat (UD 12) to the thrice defeated but (to that point) not stopped WBA middleweight champion Sumbu Kalambay. Since McCallum cannot travel back in time to even attempt to equal Leonard’s achievement but Hagler can definitely move forward just one year to attempt to equal a peaking Kalambay’s triumph, Hagler wins this 1988 "paper match" by a close, controversial but majority decision (MD 12 - no knockdowns for either boxer).

Note: From Hagler’s perspective (since he is the only one who has a multi-dimensional view – McCallum cannot go or look back) Marvin wins on one judge’s scorecard, whereas McCallum does not win on any judge’s scorecard. Also, when McCallum wins the middleweight title in 1989, it is a split-decision win (SD 12 over Graham) and in the 1991 rematch with Kalambay, it is another split decision win (SD 12) – each time, one judge votes for the other boxer giving an extra edge to Hagler to justify a majority decision (1988) win.

Here is one for the boxing aficionado – the mid 1980s’ super flyweight unification match that never takes place - Khaosai Galaxy vs. Jiro Watanabe. In his final defense of the WBA super flyweight title (before he is stripped), Watanabe becomes the first to defeat and stop (TKO 15) top contender Chavez (no, not that Chavez). Later that same year, for the now vacant WBA super flyweight title, Galaxy becomes the first to defeat and stop (KO 6) top contender Espinal. Since the peak year and quality of competition are virtually identical and only a few rounds separate the level of win, at very best, Galaxy wins this one (in a 1984 “paper match-up”) via a split decision (SD 15) – no knockdowns for either boxer.

Note: Galaxy (seven year champion) never loses a match as a defending champion (19 successful title defenses – 16 wins by KO) and Watanabe (span of four years as champion) has 10 successful title defenses (7 wins by KO). Neither boxer ever has a career stoppage loss.

In 1994, two undefeated heavyweight champions (Lennox Lewis and Michael Moorer) are upset kayo victims by two power punching challengers (Oliver McCall and George Foreman) with each challenger having only one career stoppage loss. With a reversal of challengers, the new match-ups (Lewis vs. Foreman and Moorer vs. McCall) have the probability of the same challenger upset outcomes – Foreman KO 10 Lewis and McCall TKO 2 Moorer.

Note: After his upset kayo win, Foreman is stripped of his WBA title for refusing to face former heavyweight champion Tony Tucker. Tucker (in 1995) goes on to face the once stopped and thrice defeated Bruce Seldon (for the vacant WBA heavyweight title); Seldon hands Tucker his first career stoppage loss (RTD 7– swelling of the eyes). That same year, Foreman defends his IBF heavyweight title against the once defeated but never stopped (to that point) former German heavyweight champion Axel Schultz – Foreman wins via a controversial decision (MD 12). Had Foreman faced Tucker, odds are that George will stop Tony (RTD 11 – swelling of the eyes) but if Seldon is the challenger, the majority (or split) decision will be in Bruce’s favor.

The present day match that may never materialize – Mayweather Jr. vs. Pacquiao can at least be done on paper. In 2010, Mayweather faces the talented and never stopped (to date) Shane Mosley – winning virtually every round in a one-sided unanimous decision (UD 12 – no knockdowns for either boxer). In 2010, Pacquiao also faces a talented and never stopped (to date) former champion in Joshua Clottey – winning virtually every round in a one-sided unanimous decision (UD 12 – no knockdowns for either boxer). Since there are no major differences in the peak year, level of win or quality of competition, this “paper match-up” between Mayweather Jr. and Pacquiao (2010 versions) is deemed a draw (D 12 - no knockdowns for either boxer).

Note: Mayweather Jr. does not have career loss, whereas Pacquiao has three losses – two via stoppage.

For obvious reasons, the Klitschko brothers are never going to face each other – but that does not stop one from doing a “paper match”, right? In 2002, the younger Klitschko (Wladimir) becomes the first to stop (TKO 6) former WBO heavyweight champion Ray Mercer. Just one year later, the older Klitschko (Vitali) becomes the first and only to stop (TKO 2) former PABA heavyweight champion Kirk Johnson. With only a slight edge in overall analysis of peak years, level of win and quality of competition going to the elder brother, at best, Vitali wins (in 2003) via a split decision (SD 12 - no knockdowns).

The Geezers at Caesar’s: An early 1990s’ Larry Holmes vs. George Foreman proposed match. Analysis: In 1992, old-school master boxer Holmes puts on a dazzling (and at times entertaining) performance against the undefeated, linear, durable, power punching but slower WBO heavyweight champion Ray Mercer – Holmes wins a comfortable decision (UD 12). Larry is caught on camera uttering, “I ain’t no Tommy Morrison”. In metaphysics, one learns that thoughts, actions and words carry a great deal of power; the evidence speaks for itself as just one year later, the once defeated (via stoppage by Mercer) Tommy Morrison (for the WBO heavyweight title) puts on a disciplined technical performance (Morrison wins UD 12) that neutralizes the formidable power punching but slow Foreman [see where I’m going with this?]. With a moderately high degree of consistency between these two matches, a 1993 Holmes vs. Foreman “paper match”, in a test of wills, goes the distance with Holmes winning a close but unanimous decision (UD 12 – no knockdowns for either boxer) in an interesting - if not at times entertaining - bout for the ages [although, if they are both at their peaks, one may be surprised at the outcome – you will have to wait for that one]…

System notation: In the event that peak years, level of win and quality of competition are not ALL reasonably consistent – especially peak years as is the case of match-ups from different eras and divisions – an entirely different system (revealed in the book) must be used [one that is actually far simpler, more interesting to use and fully validated]. I hope you are all interested or at least intrigued. Thanks for your time – Kal

Boxing Terms: KO (10-count-out); TKO (referee/doctor stoppage); RTD (boxer/corner retire between rounds); UD (unanimous decision); MD (majority decision); SD (split decision); TD (technical decision); D (draw); DQ (disqualify via foul).

P.S.

Two undefeated super middleweight champions (from the same time): Joe Calzaghe vs. Sven Ottke – in the book.

Gone too soon but what if history is altered?!:

Tommy Ryan: Undefeated 10-year world middleweight champion; in 1908, for the world middleweight title, 38 year-old Ryan stops #1 contender Stanley Ketchel (TKO 12) and later that year, Ryan stops #2 contender Billy Papke (KO 11); in a rematch with Ketchel (1909), Ryan builds up an early lead but Stanley rallies late to win a close decision (MD 10 – Ryan is knocked out cold at the end of the tenth round and is saved by the bell).

Stanley Ketchel: Only 24 years-old (in 1910) when he is shot and killed; reversing history, Ketchel is no longer interested in the middleweight division and has already conquered the light-heavyweight division by twice defeating champion Philadelphia Jack O’Brien. Reference: In 1915 and 1916 world middleweight champion and Australian middleweight and heavyweight champion Les Darcy twice defeats future Australian, New Zealand and Australasian heavyweight champion Jimmy Clabby (both PTS 20 wins) – similar decision wins as will be won over an ambitious middleweight, now 29/30 years-old, in Stanley Ketchel (1914 white heavyweight world champion).

Les Darcy: Dies of pneumonia in 1917 (only 21 years-old); reversing history, Darcy wins the world light heavyweight title in 1920 by stopping champion Battling Levinsky (KO 4), upsets Gene Tunney in 1922 (UD 15 – Tunney’s eyebrows are cut and he bleeds at the nose and mouth); in 1923, Les loses a close decision (UD 15) to Jack Dempsey for the world heavyweight title; in a 1927 rematch with Tunney for the world heavyweight title, Darcy loses a close decision (UD 10 for Tunney – both boxers are knocked down – Tunney for a long count in the seventh).

Gene Tunney: Continues as champion and wins decisions over top contenders Jack Sharkey, Max Schmeling, Max Baer and Jim Braddock; in a (1936) rematch with Schmeling, a now 39 year-old vulnerable Tunney deteriorates and loses the heavyweight title via a 12 round kayo; Schmeling, two years later, loses the heavyweight title via a first round kayo to #1 contender Joe Louis.

Rocky Marciano: Un-retires after four years and in a tough shootout, Rocky regains the world heavyweight title in 1959 by stopping Floyd Patterson (TKO 3); in 1960, Marciano successfully defends his title by stopping European heavyweight champion Ingemar Johansson (KO 5) but later that year, the ‘Rock’ loses his title in a close decision to #1 contender Sonny Liston (UD 12 - Liston is penalized three points for low blows).

Carlos Monzon: Decides against retirement and wins two tough and close decisions over #1 contender Hugo Corro (both MD 15 – no knockdowns), draws with top contender Vito Antuofermo (D 15 – no knockdowns) and in 1982 (at the age of 40) loses his middleweight titles by a somewhat controversial stoppage (TKO in the eight round) to a peaking and formidable #1 contender in Marvin Hagler.

Marvin Hagler: Returns in 1988 to reclaim his status and re-unify the middleweight titles; having already defeated #1 contender McCallum (MD 12), Hagler wins the IBF middleweight title by stopping Frank Tate (TKO 9) and then wins the WBA middleweight title in a mismatch by stopping Sumbu Kalambay (KO 1); in 1991, Marvin rallies from behind to stop NABF champion Michael Nunn (TKO 11) and draws with #1 contender James Toney (D 12); in a 1993 brawl with Julian Jackson, Marvin achieves his goal of re-unifying the middleweight titles by winning the WBC version (Hagler wins by TKO 5), draws (D 12) with a peaking WBO middleweight champion Gerald McClellan and then loses all three titles later that year to a peaking Roy Jones Jr. - via a close but unanimous decision (UD 12 – no knockdowns).

Salvador Sanchez: Killed in a 1982 auto accident (only 23 years old); reversing history, Sanchez continues his dominance over the featherweight division and eventually moves up to the super featherweight division – dominating with similar ease; in 1990, Salvador attempts to win a lightweight title but draws with a peaking Pernell Whitaker; in a rematch with #1 contender Azumah Nelson at 130 lbs. (in 1991 – nine years after their first battle that ends with a Sanchez TKO 15 win) Salvador earns a draw that many ringsiders view as in Sanchez’s favor. In a 1992 rubber match, Nelson pulls a rabbit out of his hat by giving an over trained Sanchez his first career stoppage loss (TKO in the eight round).

P.P.S.

I cannot comment on a prime Marciano vs. a 1973 Norton or a prime Tyson vs. a 2003 Toney (or any others) except to say that they are all (directly or in-directly) included in the book but here are some “paper matches” that may shed some light on those other listed matches.

In 1973, an undefeated and defending champion Joe Frazier loses (by TKO 2) his world heavyweight titles to top contender George Foreman; that same year, top contender Ken Norton wins the NABF heavyweight title by a split decision (SD 12) over former and future world heavyweight champion Muhammad Ali – Ali’s jaw is broken in the bout. In 1973, remove Foreman and Ali and put that exact Frazier against that exact Norton – who wins? Norton RTD 11 Frazier – Frazier retires with a severely broken jaw.

In 2003, former 2-time world heavyweight champion Mike Tyson, in his final career win, stops (KO 1) previously once stopped and former NABF and IBA Americas heavyweight champion Clifford Etienne; that same year, top contender James Toney stops (TKO 9) former 3-time world heavyweight champion Evander Holyfield, who has only one previous career stoppage loss. In 2003, remove Etienne and Holyfield and put that exact Tyson against that exact Toney – who wins? Tyson MD 12 Toney – no knockdowns.

Here is one that is missed: In 2003, Roy Jones Jr. moves up to the heavyweight division and wins a decided decision (UD 12) over the once stopped and defending WBA heavyweight champion John Ruiz; that same year, undefeated heavyweight contender Joe Mesi defeats (TKO 1) the thrice stopped and former NABF heavyweight champion Robert Davis – winning the vacant NABF heavyweight title. In 2003, remove Ruiz and Davis and put that exact Jones Jr. against that exact Mesi – who wins? Mesi scores a knockdown with a left hook in the 2nd round but the bout is fairly declared a draw (D 12).

Note: Undefeated Joe Mesi is initially forced into a medical retirement because of brain injuries suffered in the final rounds of his 2004 bout with Vassiliy Jirov - Mesi wins UD 10; hence, there can be no projected future for him since it is not a voluntary retirement such as with Tunney and Marciano or because of an accidental or circumstantial death such as with Darcy and Sanchez. Mesi does return to win seven more bouts but against no one of note.

Final note: Once a mismatch – always a mismatch; the same elements that play a factor in an early round stoppage between two boxers, who are apparently reasonably close in ability, will play a factor regardless of younger (or older) version match-ups. Example: Thomas Hearns vs. Roberto Duran (1984 mismatch; Hearns TKO 2 Duran – Roberto is knocked flat on his face and nearly out in the first round); a 1980 “paper match-up” between these two younger boxers will likely have a similar outcome – give or take a round. For a general reference, recall the two heavyweight championship mismatches (in 1962 and 1963) between Sonny Liston (30/31 years-old) and Floyd Patterson (27/28 years-old) - two KO 1 wins for Liston. Also, imagine if Mike Tyson and Michael Spinks face each other in 1986 instead of 1988 (Tyson KO 1 Spinks) – does anyone reasonably expect a much different outcome? Unless a documented reversal can be shown such as when flyweight champion Pone Kingpetch loses his titles to Hiroyuki Ebihara (by KO 1 in 1963) but in a rematch, just four months later, regains the championship (by SD 15 in 1964) the mismatch theory/rule is difficult to refute - on a case-by-case basis. Ideally, when presenting any general argument, one should try to envision oneself as an attorney in a courtroom attempting to prove a ‘case’ through logic and with corroborating evidence – substance over style – because anyone can make a statement but few can make a valid statement.