What to expect in the GGG-Canelo rematch

[jezzamundo]

Firstly to touch on a couple of things:

Opinions seem divided on how far removed from his prime GGG is. Some say he is a shadow of his former self, who would certainly have knocked Canelo out, while others say he is as good as he ever was and he is getting hit more because he has stepped up his level of competition. Personally I think the second statement is nearer the truth, though at 35 and after nearly 400 amateur and professional bouts, I do think his performances have tapered off somewhat and he isn't quite as good as he was in his early 30s. I think he looked better against Canelo than he did against Jacobs, though that was more to do with Jacobs being a trickier opponent, and he also looked better against Canelo than he did against Brook, though that was more to do with GGG being defensively negligent against a fast, skilled opponent who couldn't hurt him.

Despite the age gap, it's clear than GGG has by far the better stamina of the two and that is unlikely to change in a few months or even a year. IMO the shorter the break between fights, the better it is for GGG, but it's not going to be before May 2018, which is a 7.5 month layoff, as I don't think GGG takes an interim fight. There's a lot of talk of Golden Boy putting the fight off until September 2018 or even 2019 - I could see the former happen, with Canelo fighting Saunders in May, but at the moment, my money is on the rematch taking place in May with neither fighter taking an interim fight.

Finally - what can we expect to see in the rematch? I said before the first fight that GGG deserved to be a small favourite. I knew that Canelo had much faster hands as well as better defense and more experience against top opponents as a professional. I also knew that GGG's supposed size advantage would amount to very little or nothing. As I suspected, GGG's jab proved to be an important weapon, though he wasn't able to completely dominate with it like he did against Lemiuex, as Canelo wasn't constantly walking into it. I knew both had good chins and was confident that GGG could take Canelo's power, but less confident that Canelo could take GGG's. I've believed for a while that GGG has overrated power and underrated boxing ability and his keys to winning the fight would be the jab, cutting off the ring and his superior volume. Canelo's keys to victory would be counter-punching, body punching and defense, as well as some possibly generous judging.

Most of my predictions were accurate, although GGG took Canelo's body punches better than I expected while Canelo took GGG's power punches to the head better than I expected - although to be fair, he hardly took anything flush to the jaw. GGG was very reluctant to punch to Canelo's body, likely out of realistic fear of being countered. When he had Canelo on the ropes, he threw he punches straighter and shorter than usual, quicker but with less power, again to avoid being countered. Canelo also had better defensive footwork than I anticipated. GGG, Sanchez and many accused him of 'running' but I have absolutely no problem with this.

Some people complained about Kenny Bayless being appointed as the referee, but he did an excellent job and was largely invisible in the ring, as a good referee should be. All three judges were generous to Canelo, Adelaide Byrd ludicrously so. I would love to see the rematch in MSG, but expect it will be in Vegas again, although Cowboys stadium would be another great option.

Many say Canelo can't do anything about his stamina, but I disagree. He clearly bulked up and did a big weight drain to make 160lb for this fight, whereas I think he would have been better served making a smaller drain so he was more energized for the fight. If he can do this in the rematch, I expect his punch output to increase a little, which could be enough to get the nod in a close fight. He was able to outbox GGG when they fought in centre ring, so he needs to spend more time there and less on the ropes in the rematch. While he wasn't able to hurt GGG to the body like I expected, those were point-scoring punches that may have slowed GGG down somewhat, so continuing to target the body is still a winning strategy.

GGG will be 36 for the rematch, so it's hard to see his physical condition getting any better. Like most, I think he won the first fight pretty clearly, so it's easy to say he should go in with the same strategy, but if Canelo makes the small improvements I've suggested, GGG will probably lose a close, controversial decision. I'd like to see him start the rematch a little faster and make better use of spacing when fighting in centre ring - dominate with the jab and make Canelo come to you. Again, cut off the ring and this time be a little more aggressive when Canelo is on the ropes - get right up on his chest punch to the body more and don't give him room to escape. Of course this would give Canelo more countering opportunities, but I think GGG needs to take more risks if he wants to hurt Canelo badly this time around.

I expect the rematch to also go to a decision, probably without any knockdowns and for the judging to again be generous to Canelo, but without any shocking cards this time. I wouldn't be shocked to see another draw, but more likely is a split decision win for either fighter. GGG will probably go in as a slight betting favourite again.

[SFW]

Good analysis.

If GGG uses a better punch variety and mixes in more shots downstairs his chances of success go up. It does appear G is starting to slow down a bit, but in a rematch I don't think he will have the nerves and anxiety of the magnitude of the event messing with him like it did already. Gennady didn't even get going until the 3rd-4th round that's a big chunk of a 12 round fight. He won't start that slow next time believe that. Especially now that he knows he can take Canelo's punches and be fine. He still likely has to get a knockout to win though, he clearly ain't gettin a decision over Canelo ever.