Denis Lebedev vs Bernard Hopkins (in 2012)

[2128778]

This is the fight that I wanted to happen circa 2012.

Plot: after seeing Lebedev beating his aged and faded peers (Roy and Toney in 2011) and acquiring the portion of the WBA title at CW in the process, Hopkins sets a new goal - to move up in weight and try to snatch the belt from Lebedev. Moreover, Hopkins was playing with the idea to go up to CW before.

The fight is not taking place till mid-to-late 2012. Hopkins's own stellar 2011 (when he became the oldest titlist, by beating Pascal for Lineal LHW championship) would be followed by pair of fights against Chad Dawson, with Hopkins losing the latter of the two in April 2012.

Hop eventually moves up in fall of 2012. That's when WBA strips Guillermo Jones for inactivity and makes Lebedev full WBA champion. Hopkins gets WBA ranking at CW and the fight receives a green light.

Fight takes place at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

How it goes?

[gilgamesh]

I'd take Lebedev by UD at that point. Hopkins never lost his craftiness, and he'd have managed to survive the distance, but as he got older he just couldn't keep up the pace necessary to get the win against top level fighters. Lebedev is a guy he would've been able to beat probably in his early 40's, but by the time he's in his mid to late 40's I suspect a heavier weight class, and top rated opponent is too much to ask of Hopkins.

[2128778]

I'd take Lebedev by UD at that point. Hopkins never lost his craftiness, and he'd have managed to survive the distance, but as he got older he just couldn't keep up the pace necessary to get the win against top level fighters. Lebedev is a guy he would've been able to beat probably in his early 40's, but by the time he's in his mid to late 40's I suspect a heavier weight class, and top rated opponent is too much to ask of Hopkins.

Good points. While we're at it, I wonder whether you or anyone else noticed Hopkins's rapid decline in the period between the Cloud fight and the Murat fight?

If you go back and watch Hop-Dawson 2 and compare it with Hop-Murat and Hop-Shumenov - you could see Hop's reflexes, feet movement and combination punching were still pretty good in the 2nd Dawson fight (despite HBO crew trying to downplay his performance).

Then, he was still OK in the Cloud fight.

But in the Murat and Shumenov fight, he started fighting differently. The fact he won those bouts shouldn't confuse you. His class still carried him through this level of opposition. But he wasn't the same as in the Dawson and Cloud fights.

First of, it looked like he lost muscle mass. Then, he started spending more time with his back on the ropes. Also, he wasn't punching on the move anymore - he could either just move around without punching or he would need to stop, plant his feet and find the ground to set up even a single shot.

He needed 2-3 rounds to set up and finally start landing his trademark right hand on a stationary Shumenov, who was standing still in front of B-Hop and was so opened up. Overall, Hop was sometimes getting off-balanced, while throwing his shots in that fight.

Hop wasn't alright at all by the time he faced Kovalev.

[gilgamesh]

Yes I noticed his decline in those years. He definitely kept fighting at a high level for many years. In the case of Cloud and Shumenov he was lucky to find such weak titleholders to contend with.

Hopkins was a real crafty guy. Someone who knew how to fight so well that he could keep winning even when his body didn't really have the strength and the speed, his boxing brain still had the know how to do enough to get W's over good, young fighters. It was impressive.

Lebedev was able to notch a few other old boys from Hopkins' era on his ledger around this time. He beat both Roy Jones and James Toney as they were aging, and really should've been retired. I don't think Hopkins would've fared any better against Lebedev. A big part of his game was being able to move guys around the way he wants on the inside, and he ain't gonna be able to do that as a man in his upper 40's fighting at his heaviest weight ever.

It would've went as badly as the Kovlaev fight went for Hopkins if not worse.

[2128778]

Yes I noticed his decline in those years. He definitely kept fighting at a high level for many years. In the case of Cloud and Shumenov he was lucky to find such weak titleholders to contend with.

Hopkins was a real crafty guy. Someone who knew how to fight so well that he could keep winning even when his body didn't really have the strength and the speed, his boxing brain still had the know how to do enough to get W's over good, young fighters. It was impressive.

Lebedev was able to notch a few other old boys from Hopkins' era on his ledger around this time. He beat both Roy Jones and James Toney as they were aging, and really should've been retired. I don't think Hopkins would've fared any better against Lebedev. A big part of his game was being able to move guys around the way he wants on the inside, and he ain't gonna be able to do that as a man in his upper 40's fighting at his heaviest weight ever.

It would've went as badly as the Kovlaev fight went for Hopkins if not worse.

All reasonable points.

However, if we take Hopkins in period from 2011 till early 2013 (from Pascal fights till the Cloud fight) - I think, I'd take this version of Bernard to unseat Lebedev. His legs were still cooperating with his hands nicely, during that time period (that said, post-Cloud Hopkins would likely lose).

Lebedev was kind of a sitting duck for a straight right hand (as was seen in fights against Huck, old Roy, Silgado and Guillermo Jones). I see Hopkins finding him with his trademark straight right quite often.

Plus, Lebedev was pron to cuts and swellings. Hopkins could cut you in a variety of ways - both legal and illegal :)

Speaking about the physical aspect... Hop was naturally bigger than Roy and Toney. His frame would've allowed him to fit into CW. And if Bernard would've come in at 180-185lbs - he'd still maintain some of his physical strength and feet movement.

Whereas Lebedev - despite being solidly built, he still wasn't the biggest cruiser. In terms of height/reach - he was quite short, with T-Rex arms.

As of tactics - I think, Bernard would've implied pot-shooter strategy. He wouldn't have been too physical with Lebedev. He'd bet on the movement, use his height/ reach advantage, work from distance and make Lebedev walk into those straight rights.

Basically, he'd have taken what Huck and even old Roy had success at - and would've replicated it, but with better results. I see Hopkins nicking a decision gere.

He'd have to walk a thin ice here, though. Lebedev was a real puncher and a decent boxer, on top of that. Bernard would've had to do his best to stay off the ropes.

That's the way I see it)