Risky but rewarding...(Jones/Tarver odds update)

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 17 Sep 2005, 06:06

Guys, I've noticed the odds on Tarver over jones have improved to 1/3.

These are GREAT odds for a fighter who, in reality, should be AT LEAST 1/7 given the formbook.

Now, I personally cannot see any way jones can win this. Observe:

Hopkins over DLH
Winky over Mosely II
Lacy over Reid

These fighters all went into their matchups as 1/3 favourites, in fights which on paper were competitive!

We all know that this fight is not competitive and the Jones hype over the years has juiced the odds when he is clearly unable to repeat his form.

If you've got the balls, you should really go for it here. I don't know whether I am yet, if I do it it'll have to be >£300.

jomothepure · Post by **jomothepure** » 17 Sep 2005, 06:37

That is very decent odds actually. May be worth thinking about. Golota v Brewster at 1/3 was my last stake the house on boxing bet

Phenomenal-Nutrition · Post by **Phenomenal-Nutrition** » 17 Sep 2005, 07:23

Jones beat Tarver once (think i had it 8-4 or 7-5), he should be better prepared this time. We just don't know what Jones can bring to the table. HE could get hurt or could outhustle Tarver for the decision. It sounds like hes taking this serious if nothing else (back with his daddy, no rappers aloud in training

). His dad will probably kick his ass in training and not taking any shit. I actually edge towards a Jones UD.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 18 Sep 2005, 06:25

Did you see Jones' last fight?

Max Molyneux · Post by **Max Molyneux** » 18 Sep 2005, 09:45

Riddick Blowe wrote:Did you see Jones' last fight?

Yeah, he didn't do hardly anything for 9 rounds except letting Johnson beat on him. When he did strike back a little bit though he still showed he had some speed.

I just don't think he was mentally there.

Phenomenal-Nutrition · Post by **Phenomenal-Nutrition** » 18 Sep 2005, 11:45

Max Molyneux wrote:
Riddick Blowe wrote:Did you see Jones' last fight?
Yeah, he didn't do hardly anything for 9 rounds except letting Johnson beat on him. When he did strike back a little bit though he still showed he had some speed.

I just don't think he was mentally there.

No but I know he was terrible in that fight. BUT it doesn't mean he can't improve on a perfomance he probably hardly trained for when hes training hard.

jomothepure · Post by **jomothepure** » 18 Sep 2005, 12:37

If you don't mind going online, bet365 have Tarver at 4/9

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 27 Sep 2005, 07:20

Tarver improves to 2/5 on willhill!

This may mean bet365 odds will improve further too.

By fightnight and hopefully some late money on jones from punters who don't know better, the bookies may have enough doubts to make Tarver only slight favourite.

we could be looking at 1/2, 8/15, or maybe even 5/9 in the end, in which case-

fill yer boots

nickd · Post by **nickd** » 27 Sep 2005, 07:23

I am seriously thinking about betting big on Tarver and I mean big, if we were actually getting the fight on Sky I would be more inclined to do so.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 27 Sep 2005, 07:29

i know what you mean. when you bet big you need to see the fight, nothing more nerve racking than checking teletext the next day waiting for the page to come up.

but if you meant for enjoyment's sake, this one really does not interest me as I think it'll be pretty one sided. May even end in the first 3 rounds, and I'll be betting on those rounds too.

states · Post by **states** » 27 Sep 2005, 07:31

Riddick Blowe wrote:i know what you mean. when you bet big you need to see the fight, nothing more nerve racking than checking teletext the next day waiting for the page to come up.

Or reading someone's round by round on the internet..... I've had a few nervy ones there.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 30 Sep 2005, 06:12

update: tarver at 4/9 with willhill...

BUT 1/2 Bet365

lots of late money on jones. This is gonna get good... thank god for knowledgeless, non fight fan hype following gamblers.

wow, to think I thought 1/3 was great value!

Now he's gonna f**kin lose.

I think we'll see 5/9 by fightnight, from bet365 at least.

*does anyone know how the betting on betfair works? They have Tarver at 1.57- the best yet, around 5/9 i think.. anyway, whats the 'lay' business about? If I 'lay' Jones (ie back against him) will I get more return (but lose more if he wins)?

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 30 Sep 2005, 07:43

intertops have tarver at 1.55

Am I the ONLY one interested in these developments?

dondada · Post by **dondada** » 30 Sep 2005, 08:43

Riddick Blowe wrote:intertops have tarver at 1.55

Am I the ONLY one interested in these developments?

No - I just can't bring myself to bet against RJJ. Then again this is the same stupid rule I invoke with my football team, Middlesbrough. How much money have I thrown away NOT backing them to lose?

RJJ is probably the best boxer I've seen in my lifetime for sheer skill and talent. Sad to see the way he's gone. He should lose but fans like me kid themselves that he can raise his game one more time.

Fill your boots - but I won't be joining you.

Exile · Post by **Exile** » 30 Sep 2005, 08:58

Riddick Blowe wrote:update: tarver at 4/9 with willhill...

BUT 1/2 Bet365

lots of late money on jones. This is gonna get good... thank god for knowledgeless, non fight fan hype following gamblers.

wow, to think I thought 1/3 was great value!

Now he's gonna f**kin lose. I think we'll see 5/9 by fightnight, from bet365 at least.

*does anyone know how the betting on betfair works? They have Tarver at 1.57- the best yet, around 5/9 i think.. anyway, whats the 'lay' business about? If I 'lay' Jones (ie back against him) will I get more return (but lose more if he wins)?

If you lay against Jones you are basically becoming the bookie eg if you lay Jones at £100 at 3.1 (current odds) your payout will be £310 but you would be liable to lose £210.

Laying is great for certain sports eg laying the draw at test cricket made me a fortune but can be risky.

Hope this helps......took me a while to get the hang of it....still not 100% sure.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 30 Sep 2005, 09:36

thanks exile.

i think the jones lay is a good choice then, I really can't see that tired old fossil winning.

He surely can't KO Tarver, and how on earth is the lumbering corpse that lurched and stumbled his way to defeat against Johnson going to consistently outwork and outland the much fresher stronger Tarver.

Exile · Post by **Exile** » 30 Sep 2005, 09:51

Riddick Blowe wrote:thanks exile.

i think the jones lay is a good choice then, I really can't see that tired old fossil winning.

He surely can't KO Tarver, and how on earth is the lumbering corpse that lurched and stumbled his way to defeat against Johnson going to consistently outwork and outland the much fresher stronger Tarver.

Laying Jones is a good bet if you are really confident but a big loss if the upset happens.

Jones will turn back time.....with a career best performance or i will look like a complete twat

Exile · Post by **Exile** » 30 Sep 2005, 09:53

Riddick Blowe wrote:thanks exile.

i think the jones lay is a good choice then, I really can't see that tired old fossil winning.

He surely can't KO Tarver, and how on earth is the lumbering corpse that lurched and stumbled his way to defeat against Johnson going to consistently outwork and outland the much fresher stronger Tarver.

You should join Betfair........you get in-play in certain fights which makes the odds swing bigtime depending on the rounds.

Can also let you green your money out.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 30 Sep 2005, 09:57

just been browsing betfair... do you think if I crank up the odds i'll get a bite from someone? There must be a few non boxing fans out there who've heard about how good Jones is and can't understand why he's not the favourite. These people may see the generous odds i'm offering and take it up...but i haven't decided on the risk factor yet.

i may try and put the jones lay on at 3.5 for £100.. essentially i'd be getting 5/2 on tarver but risk losing 250...

edit: no, thats wrong. If I lose it's just as if I'd put 250 on for 250, so i'm getting tarver at evens, still a great price.

edit 2: wrong again, if i put £100 on and win I get £350 back. So it IS 5/2. Just need to look at it like, if I lose I'd have put £250 on for evens anyway so its not a significantly different bet.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 30 Sep 2005, 10:15

so what the hell is the story behind the draw betting??? It says that if you lay the draw for £100 at 30/1 you win £3000 if it isn't a draw?

!!! That obviously is not right, so what's the explanation? I think everyone would take the chance that the fight wouldn't be a draw for that kind of price, even with a £2900 liability...it also says that if you win the 'lay' you get the backer's stake- but then where the hell do odds come into it?

jomothepure · Post by **jomothepure** » 30 Sep 2005, 12:16

Riddick Blowe wrote:so what the hell is the story behind the draw betting??? It says that if you lay the draw for £100 at 30/1 you win £3000 if it isn't a draw?

!!! That obviously is not right, so what's the explanation? I think everyone would take the chance that the fight wouldn't be a draw for that kind of price, even with a £2900 liability...it also says that if you win the 'lay' you get the backer's stake- but then where the hell do odds come into it?

Surely if you lay off the draw it will be you paying out the 20/1 if it does happen?

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 30 Sep 2005, 12:45

yeah thats right, but they say you get just the backer's stake if it isn't a draw, but then they say your return is 20/1... like they say if i lay Jones and win, my return for £100 would be £350 but the backer's stake is only £100...

jomothepure · Post by **jomothepure** » 30 Sep 2005, 12:52

God it is. I've had a bit of a liquid lunch too, and although I'm not pissed I need a slash every two minutes, which is quite off putting.

RIGHT, at the moment on betfair, someone is looking for £20 on Jones at 3/1. So if you layed that, you would have to fork up £60 if Jones won, but you win £20 if he doesn't. Yes/No?

And someone is looking for £40 for the draw at 30/1. So if you accepted to lay that off, you would have to pay the guy £1200 if it was a draw, but you'd take his £40 if it isn't.

Is that ??? right

After an hour on betfair I'm getting quite into this now. Starting tomorrow I'm going to lay off every Dettori/Bin Suroor paper favourite and make a killing

Exile · Post by **Exile** » 30 Sep 2005, 14:15

If you lay the draw for £100 then you need about £2900 in your account to cover your liability.......think you would only actually make what you actually stake, hope that helps.......laying can be confusing.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 30 Sep 2005, 14:30

tell me about it. I don't understand one bit how the odds affect laying.

You just win the backer's stake!!!! WHY LAY AT ALL IF YOU CAN'T GET BETTER ODDS?????? And AT THE SAME TIME the fecking site tells you that the return is at the odds YOU SET!

Somebody PLEASE clear this up for me.