Have I missed something? Why is Joe such a big favourite?

STP · Post by **STP** » 13 Feb 2008, 09:43

I really can't see Calzaghe winning this Hopkins fight.

For a start, if you compare the Sheika and Kessler fights, you'll see that Calzaghe is hardly off-balance at all against Sheika and hardly not off-balance at all against Kessler, and you'll see that Calzaghe hits Sheika clean with the majority of everything and hits Kessler clean with about 10% of punches thrown. I'm not saying Sheika is Kessler, but it's clear to me that Calzaghe's skills have eroded.

Hopkins is taller and rangier than any fighter Joe has ever stepped into the ring with, barring the petrified Mario Veit. He's taller and rangier than Joe is, with a conscious sense of timing and distance and is rarely flat on his feet.

Eubank and Hopkins are similar in that they both like to lean in with the right hand, difference is that Hopkins can land it against a southpaw and Eubank couldn't. Joe often squares up with his chin up, he's been doing it all his life so he won't change now, and Hopkins needs no invite. Inside and in clinches, Hopkins is better and craftier than Joe. The shots he fell short with against Veit, Manfredo and Kessler would have been punished by Hopkins.

Hopkins looked as good as ever against southpaw Tarver at light-heavyweight 18 months ago.

Poncey · Post by **Poncey** » 13 Feb 2008, 09:55

All I can say is I wish you were a bookie mate!

I'm checking the odds at the weekend, but I'm putting £50 on Calzaghe points decision provided the odds are worth it.

Bard of Boxrec · Post by **Bard of Boxrec** » 13 Feb 2008, 11:16

agreed. Hopkins has all the smarts to make calzaghe look like a mug. However the old boy has workrate issues and could get outhustled by the technically inferior but busier fighter.

5 years ago, hopkins all the way.

ArtOfWar · Post by **ArtOfWar** » 13 Feb 2008, 12:04

Hopkins offensive output i the big problem as Riddick has just mentioned. Defensively he's still top class and that why this fight will still be very tough for Joe. The problem is his workrate just isn't that good any more, so he's going to have to make things ugly if he's going to win. He's well capable of doing that, but Calzaghe has to be made favourite at this stage of their career's.

Chambers2 · Post by **Chambers2** » 13 Feb 2008, 12:25

Emerson Poncey Name Ghent wrote:All I can say is I wish you were a bookie mate!

I'm checking the odds at the weekend, but I'm putting £50 on Calzaghe points decision provided the odds are worth it.

Hes 1/2 to win on pts with Stan James, its still worth it IMO

Poncey · Post by **Poncey** » 13 Feb 2008, 12:39

Chambers2 wrote:
Emerson Poncey Name Ghent wrote:All I can say is I wish you were a bookie mate!

I'm checking the odds at the weekend, but I'm putting £50 on Calzaghe points decision provided the odds are worth it.
Hes 1/2 to win on pts with Stan James, its still worth it IMO

Maybe £20 then. It's in Nevada after all.

fist · Post by **fist** » 13 Feb 2008, 14:31

Why is Joe odds on favourite? Cos he is a much more accomplaished all round boxer, flexible in his approach, higher workrate, great on both the inside and out, extremelly fast...

Dont know which fight you were watching but Calzaghe landed with about 28% of his shots, and 25% of jabs. The last six rounds his accuracy imrproved and he started to dominate Kessler. Kessler is an awsome fighter but his face told the tale - Joe had too much class.

Hopkins on ther other hand has felt defeat numerous times, unlike Joe as a pro. Hopkins is one dimensional, low workrate and in my opinion, one of the most boring champions to watch. As ive said on numerous threads, Eastman showed Hopkins limitations and Eastman was past it and lazy. Yes Hopkins won the fight, but he was booed by his own fans. He looked ineffective.

So go ahead, take advantage if the odds, put a huge bet on Hopkins and let us know how much.

MBP · Post by **MBP** » 13 Feb 2008, 15:03

Emerson Poncey Name Ghent wrote:
Chambers2 wrote:
Emerson Poncey Name Ghent wrote:All I can say is I wish you were a bookie mate!

I'm checking the odds at the weekend, but I'm putting £50 on Calzaghe points decision provided the odds are worth it.
Hes 1/2 to win on pts with Stan James, its still worth it IMO
Maybe £20 then. It's in Nevada after all.

He's 2-5 with Power Power to win anyway, so check them as the fight gets closer as you'l get a better price then 1-2 to win on pionts.

harrygreb · Post by **harrygreb** » 13 Feb 2008, 15:43

how much better than eastman is calzaghe? how much more dangerous than oscar is joe? was de la hoya given a chance by anyone against hopkins?
answer these questions and place your bets

STP · Post by **STP** » 13 Feb 2008, 17:42

The big fella leaves himself wide open after those slappy flurries, Lacy was too slow and Kessler was too stiff. Hopkins will reduce the output on movement alone.

fist · Post by **fist** » 13 Feb 2008, 18:15

STP wrote:The big fella leaves himself wide open after those slappy flurries, Lacy was too slow and Kessler was too stiff. Hopkins will reduce the output on movement alone.

Lol neither Lacy or Kessler's face looked like they'd been slapped :-) Granite chinned Eubank laughs at armchair pundits who reckon Joe slaps! No mate, Joe still has enough dig on him to cause enough damage - speed equals power.

As for leaving himself open, well he has excellent movement and ability to counter counters, exactly what he kept doing against Kessler - demoralising and perplexing for fighters. Yep Joe sometimes likes to fight toe-to-toe and doesnt mind taking a few shots, but thats cos he has a great chin - took some heavy bombs off Kessler. That said, if it starts disrupting him too much, which it wont, he'll simply out jab you, mix up his style and his offence. He has too much versatility for Hopkins.

stujones · Post by **stujones** » 13 Feb 2008, 18:38

harrygreb wrote:how much better than eastman is calzaghe? how much more dangerous than oscar is joe? was de la hoya given a chance by anyone against hopkins?
answer these questions and place your bets

Eastman wasn't given a chance, and DLH did offer a different proposition than Joe. He didn't have the power, but he had speed and good boxing skills - thats why he was given a chance.... to beat Hopkins on points... and it wasn't an anhilation that people now think it was (Oscar fought the wrong fight also).

Hopkins did negate Oscar's speed and flurries quite well. Indeed, Oscar tried to fight in a Calzaghe esque manner - just no power and no strength... thats why Joe is the favourite. He should be able to complete the job that Oscar failed to do - but Hopkins didn't seem bothered by Oscar's flurries and speed.

rhino222 · Post by **rhino222** » 13 Feb 2008, 19:15

i think we are forgetting that hopkins is now an old man..

whiskey · Post by **whiskey** » 13 Feb 2008, 20:37

Busy Williams lost against a cagey defence last saturday.

Max Molyneux · Post by **Max Molyneux** » 13 Feb 2008, 21:03

Riddick Blowe wrote:agreed. Hopkins has all the smarts to make calzaghe look like a mug. However the old boy has workrate issues and could get outhustled by the technically inferior but busier fighter.

5 years ago, hopkins all the way.

Technically Inferior how? Calzaghe Isn't just reflexes and handspeed, Kessler ain't Hopkins but he showed how he can change tatics. Hopkins fouling will get him a worse beating.

5 years ago? 7 years ago he pulled out of a deal to fight Calzaghe.

If Hopkins allows himself to be on the ropes against Joe like he did with Taylor he'll get stopped. He'll be overwhelmed to respond, he's not even a small fighter to try and slip like Manfredo tried when overwhelmed(not comparing Manfredo to Hop before you misunderstand)

Who will be favoured against Joe next when Hopkins gets retired?

with a conscious sense of timing and distance and is rarely flat on his feet.

Only so he can preserve what little stamina he has left, when pressured like here, he holds then In short spurts can throw something. Joe can throw flurries on the Inside If Hops wants to man hug him.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=uawi5ueyiI4&feature=related

He's only having a fight year as well and looking mediocre against tellytubby middleweights.

Joe's skills still look as fast as ever looking at the youtube video of him on the pads.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=y8A6xA6_s2Q

Joe's better on his feet than Winky too when and can easily move away from Hops. Calzage won't lose to a Taylor victim either.

Max Molyneux · Post by **Max Molyneux** » 13 Feb 2008, 21:04

G0mez wrote:Busy Williams lost against a cagey defence last saturday.

Calzaghe ain't no anorexic Welterweight though.

BAMBI · Post by **BAMBI** » 14 Feb 2008, 03:38

i wonder if Light-HW will affect Joes work rate, probably not, but lets see on the 19th of April.

Poncey · Post by **Poncey** » 14 Feb 2008, 04:39

BAMBI wrote:i wonder if Light-HW will affect Joes work rate, probably not, but lets see on the 19th of April.

It'll improve him as he won't have to go through that abysmal diet for the final week like he did for 168.

GlobalBox · Post by **GlobalBox** » 14 Feb 2008, 05:09

Chambers2 wrote:
Emerson Poncey Name Ghent wrote:All I can say is I wish you were a bookie mate!

I'm checking the odds at the weekend, but I'm putting £50 on Calzaghe points decision provided the odds are worth it.
Hes 1/2 to win on pts with Stan James, its still worth it IMO

Guys you can get EVS on Calzaghe on Points with Ladbrokes.

Placed my £200 long ago and the price is still there, wont be for much longer though so fill your boots.

This really is a formality, your only worry is Calzaghe stops him but that is very unlikely and you can sit back and collect.

Hopkins cannot win this fight on points, its just impossible, he could off course win by stoppage but lets not forget he is not a light heavyweight puncher he is a decent puncher at middleweight, can't see him troubling Calzaghe on power issues.

Thats why Stan James are 1/2 pts, its a gimmee, take the Evs with Ladbrokes

Autobarn · Post by **Autobarn** » 14 Feb 2008, 05:11

I wonder how strong each man will be at the weight. This is apparently Joe's natural weight and we may see more speed/vitality than ever.Meanwhile Hopkins had to manufacture himself into a light heavyweight, by bulking up with Mackie Shilstone for Tarver.

Then again, will Joe be fleshy and sluggish at a higher weight?

It seems that Joe finds something extra in his performance. if we say, "oh we haven't seen him do such and such" in a big fight, well, he has been surprising us with the Lacy & Kessler bouts.

Joe is the better natural talent. He has an instinctive, improvisation, fluid quality that allows him to fight at a high tempo and negate his opponents. Hopkins will spoil a lot in close and will be hard to hit. But I'm not so sold on him vs southpaws because he didn't look great vs the best southpaw he fought to date, Wright.

Wright gives me a bit of an indication of what will happen. If Hopkins looked awkward & off balance in that one- vs a man who has become fat and plodding in his attempts to win fans and move up in weight - then I think he's going to be outsped in April.

Chambers2 · Post by **Chambers2** » 14 Feb 2008, 06:10

GLOBALBOX wrote:
Chambers2 wrote:
Emerson Poncey Name Ghent wrote:All I can say is I wish you were a bookie mate!

I'm checking the odds at the weekend, but I'm putting £50 on Calzaghe points decision provided the odds are worth it.
Hes 1/2 to win on pts with Stan James, its still worth it IMO
Guys you can get EVS on Calzaghe on Points with Ladbrokes.

Placed my £200 long ago and the price is still there, wont be for much longer though so fill your boots.

This really is a formality, your only worry is Calzaghe stops him but that is very unlikely and you can sit back and collect.

Hopkins cannot win this fight on points, its just impossible, he could off course win by stoppage but lets not forget he is not a light heavyweight puncher he is a decent puncher at middleweight, can't see him troubling Calzaghe on power issues.

Thats why Stan James are 1/2 pts, its a gimmee, take the Evs with Ladbrokes

Cheers Global, I've jumped on that one with a ton

Its giving money away IMO, but I've said this before and its all gone tits up

Poncey · Post by **Poncey** » 14 Feb 2008, 06:13

Chambers2 wrote:
GLOBALBOX wrote:
Chambers2 wrote: Hes 1/2 to win on pts with Stan James, its still worth it IMO
Guys you can get EVS on Calzaghe on Points with Ladbrokes.

Placed my £200 long ago and the price is still there, wont be for much longer though so fill your boots.

This really is a formality, your only worry is Calzaghe stops him but that is very unlikely and you can sit back and collect.

Hopkins cannot win this fight on points, its just impossible, he could off course win by stoppage but lets not forget he is not a light heavyweight puncher he is a decent puncher at middleweight, can't see him troubling Calzaghe on power issues.

Thats why Stan James are 1/2 pts, its a gimmee, take the Evs with Ladbrokes
Cheers Global, I've jumped on that one with a ton

Its giving money away IMO, but I've said this before and its all gone tits up

I'll be doing the same. However only for £50 as I dunno who the judges are yet, and it's Nevada as I said before.

If it's Lederman or Smith I won't bet anymore, as they suck.

Chambers2 · Post by **Chambers2** » 14 Feb 2008, 06:29

Emerson Poncey Name Ghent wrote:
Chambers2 wrote:
GLOBALBOX wrote: Guys you can get EVS on Calzaghe on Points with Ladbrokes.

Placed my £200 long ago and the price is still there, wont be for much longer though so fill your boots.

This really is a formality, your only worry is Calzaghe stops him but that is very unlikely and you can sit back and collect.

Hopkins cannot win this fight on points, its just impossible, he could off course win by stoppage but lets not forget he is not a light heavyweight puncher he is a decent puncher at middleweight, can't see him troubling Calzaghe on power issues.

Thats why Stan James are 1/2 pts, its a gimmee, take the Evs with Ladbrokes
Cheers Global, I've jumped on that one with a ton

Its giving money away IMO, but I've said this before and its all gone tits up
I'll be doing the same. However only for £50 as I dunno who the judges are yet, and it's Nevada as I said before.

If it's Lederman or Smith I won't bet anymore, as they suck.

If Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles were judging I'd still be lumping some on this one, I think JC wins this one by a fairly wide UD. The US judges usually go for aggression which won't bare to well for B-Hop.

I'm trying to talk myself out of sticking some more on....do it, don't do it, do it, don't do it, do it, don't it, do it (why does the Devil on my shoulder always kick the angels arse????)

jamesmcdonnell · Post by **jamesmcdonnell** » 14 Feb 2008, 07:33

Will be lumping 200 quid on Calzaghe. 150 on points. 40 on a calzaghe stoppage 10 quid on the draw.

harrygreb · Post by **harrygreb** » 14 Feb 2008, 07:43

points. wide points.