Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Since we know the complete field, it might be fun to make some early predictions. There are obviously many people on this board who know much more about amateur boxing than I do, but I will nonetheless offer my thoughts first. At least I've seen most of the top boxers in person this cycle. Please feel free to add your own thoughts or criticize mine.
48kg
Weight-Class Rating - 3.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Zou Shiming (China) 2) David Ayrapetyan (Russia), 3) Birzhan Zhakypov (Kazakhstan)
Zou will be the overwhelming favorite to win gold, unless he cracks under the immense pressure he is being put under. But even after Zou, this is a pretty competitive weight class with a nice mix of good old and young fighters from every continent. Zou is the only returning Athens Quarterfinalist, but Ayrapetyan won the 2006 European title and won the first European Qualifier in Italy easily after being beaten by Zou early in Chicago. The third spot is tough, but I'm going with Zhakypov, who scored more on Zou in Chicago than anyone else, and won the 1st Asian Qualifier in Thailand. Harry Tanamor, the only representative from the Philippines, won the silver in Chicago, but is an old and dull super-tactical fighter. There are a number of young fighters in the field, who could emerge as surprises.
Favorite Sleeper - Nordine Oubaali (France)
Oubaali probably isn't much of a sleeper - he might be my fourth-rated fighter in the group. But in a group with several veteran, tactical fighters, he's all aggression and is great to watch, and is only 21. He blew out De La Nieve and Chigayev in Chicago, and was outclassed by Zou, but mostly because he kept coming forward even after he had fallen behind.
51kg
Weight-Class Rating - 5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Rau'Shee Warren (USA) 2) Georgi Balakshin (Russia), 3) Samir Mammadov (Azerbaijan)
This weight class has a little of everything - multiple world champions, multiple Olympic veterans, multiple young stars. Warren should be the big favorite, but this is a deep, deep division. Balakshin and Warren have had a good rivalry for several years now. Lee Ok-Sung of South Korea won the 2005 World Championship, but has not been very active since then. Somjit Jongjohor of Thailand won the 2003 World Championships and made it to the final in Chicago. Samir Mammadov and McWilliams Arroyo of Puerto Rico are exciting fighters who had a great match in Chicago, and Mammadov is only 20. Khalid Yafai looks like a future star for the UK and is still 18. And I haven't even mentioned aging veterans Jerome Thomas of France and Tulashboy Doniyarov of Uzbekistan who fought in the Quarterfinals in Athens in 2004, or aging Cuban Andry Laffita, who won a silver at the 2005 World Championships. Did I mention this division was deep?
Favorite Sleeper - Anvar Yunusov (Tajikistan)
Yunusov is only 21, and made a good account for himself in Chicago, picking up two wins before losing a good fight with Mammadov. He then went to the first Asian Qualifier in Thailand and rolled over a very tough field, including Lee Ok-Sung in the final.
54kg
Weight-Class Rating - 2.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Sergey Vodopyanov (Russia) 2) Enkhbat Badar-Uugan (Mongolia), 3) Gary Russell (USA)
This division lacks the firepower and depth of the other small weight-classes. Vodopyanov is the youngest member of the Russian team at just 21, but was not that dominant in winning gold in Chicago. Badar-Uugan took the silver, but it was a lackluster field - and Cuba's entry Yankiel Leon does not have enough of a track record to rate him highly. Russell is young and talented, but inconsistent and occasionally passive. Worapoj Petchkoom of Thailand and Rustam Rahimov are the returning Olympic Quarterfinalists from Athens, but Petchkoom has been inconsistent and Rahimov is getting very old. The saving grace of this class is the youthfulness of some of the better fighters that could emerge.
Favorite Sleepers - Akhil Kumar (India), Luke Boyd (Australia)
Kumar and Boyd might be two of those emergent talents, and appear to be the best boxers from their respective countries. Kumar, 27, missed Chicago with injury, but then went to Thailand and outclassed every opponent until he beat Petchkoom in the final on points. Boyd is only 21, and gave Vodopyanov a decent fight after being drawn against him in his first fight in Chicago.
57kg
Weight-Class Rating - 4.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Albert Selimov (Russia) 2) Vasyl Lomachenko (Ukraine), 3) Li Yang (China)
This division is top heavy without the depth of 51kg, but has some amazing talents that should go far unless they are all drawn against each other early. Selimov is only 22 and destroys all stereotypes about robotic European fighters with an incredibly effective and stylish southpaw attack. Lomachenko is one of the most exciting young fighters in the world - just 20 and willing to attack. The next group includes Li Yang, who barely lost to Lomachenko in Chicago - the home ring advantage should help him, but he is terrible to watch. Also Idel Torriente is only 21 and could emerge and Raynell Williams of the USA is terrific and only 19, but is a clear step behind the top two. Bahodirjon Sultanov of Uzbekistan and Galib Jafarov of Kazakhstan could also squeak in for medals - Sultanov gave Selimov a decent fight in Chicago and Jafarov made the Quarterfinals in Athens but is getting old.
Favorite Sleeper - None
Just don't see any exciting young names here, other than the favorites.
60kg
Weight-Class Rating - 3 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Yordenis Ugas (Cuba) 2) Frankie Gavin (Great Britain), 3) Alexey Tishchenko (Russia)
This weight has a very closely contested group at the top, but perhaps not as much depth as the other similar weights. Gavin upset Tishchenko in Chicago, and has to be rated above the 2004 Olympic 57kg champion, although some see it as a one-off result. Both fighters are very technical, and less exciting than the top guys at 57kg. The 2005 World Champion Ugas may bring more excitement, but clearly the draw may end up being the separating factor between these three. The lanky and frustrating Kim Song-Guk of North Korea and solid Italian Domenico Valentino are probably next on the list, but are not inspiring. Valentino and Baik Jong-Sub of South Korea are the only returning Quarterfinalists from Athens at this weight, which was one of the best weights to watch in 2004.
Favorite Sleeper - Onur Sipal (Turkey)
Sipal became a favorite at Chicago, where his fearless style was eye-pleasing, most of all when he stopped Uzbek Bekzod Khidirov with his power punching. Gavin was too technical and savvy for his come-forward style, but Sipal has already accomplished a lot at the age of 19, and could turn out to be a great pro.
64kg
Weight-Class Rating - 4 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Serik Sapiyev (Kazakhstan) 2) Manus Boonjumnong (Thailand), 3) Rosniel Iglesias (Cuba)
This class probably doesn't have the strength at the top of some others, but it is has a lot of interesting stories and a deep crop of possible medalists. The two-time World Champion Sapiyev was never really tested in Chicago, winning easily with very smooth, if not that exciting, skills. Boonjumnong won the 2004 Gold, but is famously undisciplined and wildly inconsistent. Iglesias is a 2006 Junior World Champion, and could be one of the new Cuban stars to come out of Beijing. In fact, three of the four medalists from 2004 are returning, with Boris Georgiev of Bulgaria and Ionut Gheorghe of Romania in the field, although neither showed great form in Chicago. And there are some interesting young fighters from a number of other big-media countries.
Favorite Sleeper - Maimaitituersun Qiong (China)
Qiong is the youngest member of the Chinese team at 19, and could be their next star after Zou. He only went down in Chicago by two points to Georgiev and then qualified easily in Thailand (although losing to Boonjumnong in the final). Best of all, he has a more aggressive style than a lot of his Chinese teammates.
69kg
Weight-Class Rating - 2 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Demetrius Andrade (USA) 2) Magomed Nurudinov (Belarus), 3) Kim Jung-Joo (South Korea)
A very disappointing weight, with by far the worst Russian in the field and an unproven Cuban. The saving grace may be the small group of young potential stars. Andrade was quite dominant in Chicago, but against a limited field, and it's very hard to know who to pick after him. Non Boonjumnong of Thailand finished second in Chicago, but did not have any amazing wins. Nurudinov gets my #2 place, despite his early loss in Chicago. He is a mean, nasty fighter, but could not get to Andrade. But he then went to Italy and demolished the competition at the first European Qualifier. Kim gets the nod at #3 because of his bronze in Athens. He didn't participate in Chicago, but qualified easily in Thailand. The rest of the field is pretty uninspiring or unproven, the latter certainly describing Cuban Carlos Banteaux. Hanati Silamu of China should be good enough to take advantage of being at home.
Favorite Sleeper - Billy Joe Saunders (Great Britain)
Saunders, an 18-year-old English gypsy, seems to be on a track to peak at the games much like Amir Khan did in 2004. He wasn't selected for Chicago, but was on a reported 49-fight winning streak, including beating Banteux in a tournament in Bulgaria, before he narrowly lost to Oleksandr Stretskyy in the first European Qualifier in Italy. He is the kind of story that can really light up the games, and this mostly dismal weight class.
75kg
Weight-Class Rating - 5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Matvey Korobov (Russia) 2) Emilio Correa (Cuba), 3) Alfonso Blanco (Venezuela)
It doesn't get much better this - a deep, and very young group of fighters led by a transcendent star in Korobov. I have birthdates for all but one fighter in this class, and the oldest is 29-year-old Mohammed Hikal of Egypt. Most of the group are 25 or under. This group is so solid that the defending Val Barker Award winner from 2004, Bakhitayar Artayev of Kazakhstan, didn't even make my top three. Korobov should boss his way to gold and make a lot of fans with his style, but there will be a lot of interesting fights and a knife-fight for silver and bronze. Also to watch - Sergey Derevyanchenko of the Ukraine and Elshod Rasulov, a talented young Uzbek who got caught with a huge punch in Chicago.
Favorite Sleeper - Carlos Gongora (Ecuador)
Gongora is the youngest fighter in this field, at just 19, and already has rolled up some impressive results. He beat Blanco easily at the 2007 Pan Am Games before losing to Correa, and was outclassed by Korobov in Chicago, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Ecuadorean boxing seems to be on the rise, and this kid is an exciting prospect with a pleasing style.
81kg
Weight-Class Rating - 1 Star (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Abbos Atoev (Uzbekistan) 2) Artur Beterbiev (Russia), 3) Yerkebuian Shynaliyev (Kazakhstan)
There are some young guys at the top of this group, but overall it is not going to be a weight with many likely thrills. Atoev, the surprise winner in Chicago, and Shynaliyev are very similar. Both are rough, aggressive, short southpaws in their early 20's. Beterbiev, and many of the other Europeans here, are more in line with the stiff, technical stereotype. With no Cuban or American, the field from the Americas is unproven and this weight is too big for most of Asia. Perhaps 23-year-old Ismayl Sillakh, a Ukrainian with an African father, will put it together and challenge.
Favorite Sleeper - Djakhon Kurbanov (Tajikistan)
Not really a sleeper as much as just another solid fighter who might medal. The 22-year-old Tajik was DQ'd in Chicago with seven seconds left of a fight he was winning against Shynaliyev. He also won the 2006 Asian Games gold and rolled through the Thailand qualifier.
91kg
Weight-Class Rating - 2 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Clemente Russo (Italy) 2) Rakhim Chakhiev (Russia), 3) Osmay Acosta (Cuba)
Sadly, not too much excitement here. Russo is charismatic, but fights with his feet, Chakhiev is an old-school strongman without silky skills, and Acosta is young but inconsistent in his career so far. After those three there isn't that much more to look forward to either - John M'Bumba of France was exciting in Chicago before falling to Chakhiev and China's Yushan Nijiati will have the crowd behind him.
Favorite Sleeper - Oleksandr Usyk (Ukraine)
Usyk is an interesting character, because he won a bronze medal in the European Championships just two years ago as a Middleweight. He replaced Poyatsika after Chicago, and won four tough bouts fairly easily in Italy to qualify. It will be interesting to see if he brings some nice skills up with him to the heavyweights.
91+kg
Weight-Class Rating - 3.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Islam Timurziev (Russia) 2) Roberto Cammarelle (Italy), 3) Vyacheslav Glazkov (Ukraine)
The big men should be pretty good to watch this time, thanks to some giants and experienced returners. Timurziev didn't show to fight the Olympic veteran Cammarelle in Chicago, with appendicitis apparently, but his myriad health problems seem to be behind him for now. Glazkov is not that exciting, but did very well in Chicago, including a stoppage win over Olympic veteran Jaroslav Jaksto. Beyond those three you have 6-8 Chinese giant Zhang Zhilei, 6-7 Brit David Price, dangerous Bulgarian veteran Kubrat Pulev, and the young Cuban Robert Alfonso. I expect this to be a lot more fun than some may think, despite the supposed downturn in heavies and no American being involved. Expect some KOs.
Favorite Sleeper - None
There doesn't appear to be anyone outside of the favorites who can challenge at this weight.
48kg
Weight-Class Rating - 3.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Zou Shiming (China) 2) David Ayrapetyan (Russia), 3) Birzhan Zhakypov (Kazakhstan)
Zou will be the overwhelming favorite to win gold, unless he cracks under the immense pressure he is being put under. But even after Zou, this is a pretty competitive weight class with a nice mix of good old and young fighters from every continent. Zou is the only returning Athens Quarterfinalist, but Ayrapetyan won the 2006 European title and won the first European Qualifier in Italy easily after being beaten by Zou early in Chicago. The third spot is tough, but I'm going with Zhakypov, who scored more on Zou in Chicago than anyone else, and won the 1st Asian Qualifier in Thailand. Harry Tanamor, the only representative from the Philippines, won the silver in Chicago, but is an old and dull super-tactical fighter. There are a number of young fighters in the field, who could emerge as surprises.
Favorite Sleeper - Nordine Oubaali (France)
Oubaali probably isn't much of a sleeper - he might be my fourth-rated fighter in the group. But in a group with several veteran, tactical fighters, he's all aggression and is great to watch, and is only 21. He blew out De La Nieve and Chigayev in Chicago, and was outclassed by Zou, but mostly because he kept coming forward even after he had fallen behind.
51kg
Weight-Class Rating - 5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Rau'Shee Warren (USA) 2) Georgi Balakshin (Russia), 3) Samir Mammadov (Azerbaijan)
This weight class has a little of everything - multiple world champions, multiple Olympic veterans, multiple young stars. Warren should be the big favorite, but this is a deep, deep division. Balakshin and Warren have had a good rivalry for several years now. Lee Ok-Sung of South Korea won the 2005 World Championship, but has not been very active since then. Somjit Jongjohor of Thailand won the 2003 World Championships and made it to the final in Chicago. Samir Mammadov and McWilliams Arroyo of Puerto Rico are exciting fighters who had a great match in Chicago, and Mammadov is only 20. Khalid Yafai looks like a future star for the UK and is still 18. And I haven't even mentioned aging veterans Jerome Thomas of France and Tulashboy Doniyarov of Uzbekistan who fought in the Quarterfinals in Athens in 2004, or aging Cuban Andry Laffita, who won a silver at the 2005 World Championships. Did I mention this division was deep?
Favorite Sleeper - Anvar Yunusov (Tajikistan)
Yunusov is only 21, and made a good account for himself in Chicago, picking up two wins before losing a good fight with Mammadov. He then went to the first Asian Qualifier in Thailand and rolled over a very tough field, including Lee Ok-Sung in the final.
54kg
Weight-Class Rating - 2.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Sergey Vodopyanov (Russia) 2) Enkhbat Badar-Uugan (Mongolia), 3) Gary Russell (USA)
This division lacks the firepower and depth of the other small weight-classes. Vodopyanov is the youngest member of the Russian team at just 21, but was not that dominant in winning gold in Chicago. Badar-Uugan took the silver, but it was a lackluster field - and Cuba's entry Yankiel Leon does not have enough of a track record to rate him highly. Russell is young and talented, but inconsistent and occasionally passive. Worapoj Petchkoom of Thailand and Rustam Rahimov are the returning Olympic Quarterfinalists from Athens, but Petchkoom has been inconsistent and Rahimov is getting very old. The saving grace of this class is the youthfulness of some of the better fighters that could emerge.
Favorite Sleepers - Akhil Kumar (India), Luke Boyd (Australia)
Kumar and Boyd might be two of those emergent talents, and appear to be the best boxers from their respective countries. Kumar, 27, missed Chicago with injury, but then went to Thailand and outclassed every opponent until he beat Petchkoom in the final on points. Boyd is only 21, and gave Vodopyanov a decent fight after being drawn against him in his first fight in Chicago.
57kg
Weight-Class Rating - 4.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Albert Selimov (Russia) 2) Vasyl Lomachenko (Ukraine), 3) Li Yang (China)
This division is top heavy without the depth of 51kg, but has some amazing talents that should go far unless they are all drawn against each other early. Selimov is only 22 and destroys all stereotypes about robotic European fighters with an incredibly effective and stylish southpaw attack. Lomachenko is one of the most exciting young fighters in the world - just 20 and willing to attack. The next group includes Li Yang, who barely lost to Lomachenko in Chicago - the home ring advantage should help him, but he is terrible to watch. Also Idel Torriente is only 21 and could emerge and Raynell Williams of the USA is terrific and only 19, but is a clear step behind the top two. Bahodirjon Sultanov of Uzbekistan and Galib Jafarov of Kazakhstan could also squeak in for medals - Sultanov gave Selimov a decent fight in Chicago and Jafarov made the Quarterfinals in Athens but is getting old.
Favorite Sleeper - None
Just don't see any exciting young names here, other than the favorites.
60kg
Weight-Class Rating - 3 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Yordenis Ugas (Cuba) 2) Frankie Gavin (Great Britain), 3) Alexey Tishchenko (Russia)
This weight has a very closely contested group at the top, but perhaps not as much depth as the other similar weights. Gavin upset Tishchenko in Chicago, and has to be rated above the 2004 Olympic 57kg champion, although some see it as a one-off result. Both fighters are very technical, and less exciting than the top guys at 57kg. The 2005 World Champion Ugas may bring more excitement, but clearly the draw may end up being the separating factor between these three. The lanky and frustrating Kim Song-Guk of North Korea and solid Italian Domenico Valentino are probably next on the list, but are not inspiring. Valentino and Baik Jong-Sub of South Korea are the only returning Quarterfinalists from Athens at this weight, which was one of the best weights to watch in 2004.
Favorite Sleeper - Onur Sipal (Turkey)
Sipal became a favorite at Chicago, where his fearless style was eye-pleasing, most of all when he stopped Uzbek Bekzod Khidirov with his power punching. Gavin was too technical and savvy for his come-forward style, but Sipal has already accomplished a lot at the age of 19, and could turn out to be a great pro.
64kg
Weight-Class Rating - 4 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Serik Sapiyev (Kazakhstan) 2) Manus Boonjumnong (Thailand), 3) Rosniel Iglesias (Cuba)
This class probably doesn't have the strength at the top of some others, but it is has a lot of interesting stories and a deep crop of possible medalists. The two-time World Champion Sapiyev was never really tested in Chicago, winning easily with very smooth, if not that exciting, skills. Boonjumnong won the 2004 Gold, but is famously undisciplined and wildly inconsistent. Iglesias is a 2006 Junior World Champion, and could be one of the new Cuban stars to come out of Beijing. In fact, three of the four medalists from 2004 are returning, with Boris Georgiev of Bulgaria and Ionut Gheorghe of Romania in the field, although neither showed great form in Chicago. And there are some interesting young fighters from a number of other big-media countries.
Favorite Sleeper - Maimaitituersun Qiong (China)
Qiong is the youngest member of the Chinese team at 19, and could be their next star after Zou. He only went down in Chicago by two points to Georgiev and then qualified easily in Thailand (although losing to Boonjumnong in the final). Best of all, he has a more aggressive style than a lot of his Chinese teammates.
69kg
Weight-Class Rating - 2 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Demetrius Andrade (USA) 2) Magomed Nurudinov (Belarus), 3) Kim Jung-Joo (South Korea)
A very disappointing weight, with by far the worst Russian in the field and an unproven Cuban. The saving grace may be the small group of young potential stars. Andrade was quite dominant in Chicago, but against a limited field, and it's very hard to know who to pick after him. Non Boonjumnong of Thailand finished second in Chicago, but did not have any amazing wins. Nurudinov gets my #2 place, despite his early loss in Chicago. He is a mean, nasty fighter, but could not get to Andrade. But he then went to Italy and demolished the competition at the first European Qualifier. Kim gets the nod at #3 because of his bronze in Athens. He didn't participate in Chicago, but qualified easily in Thailand. The rest of the field is pretty uninspiring or unproven, the latter certainly describing Cuban Carlos Banteaux. Hanati Silamu of China should be good enough to take advantage of being at home.
Favorite Sleeper - Billy Joe Saunders (Great Britain)
Saunders, an 18-year-old English gypsy, seems to be on a track to peak at the games much like Amir Khan did in 2004. He wasn't selected for Chicago, but was on a reported 49-fight winning streak, including beating Banteux in a tournament in Bulgaria, before he narrowly lost to Oleksandr Stretskyy in the first European Qualifier in Italy. He is the kind of story that can really light up the games, and this mostly dismal weight class.
75kg
Weight-Class Rating - 5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Matvey Korobov (Russia) 2) Emilio Correa (Cuba), 3) Alfonso Blanco (Venezuela)
It doesn't get much better this - a deep, and very young group of fighters led by a transcendent star in Korobov. I have birthdates for all but one fighter in this class, and the oldest is 29-year-old Mohammed Hikal of Egypt. Most of the group are 25 or under. This group is so solid that the defending Val Barker Award winner from 2004, Bakhitayar Artayev of Kazakhstan, didn't even make my top three. Korobov should boss his way to gold and make a lot of fans with his style, but there will be a lot of interesting fights and a knife-fight for silver and bronze. Also to watch - Sergey Derevyanchenko of the Ukraine and Elshod Rasulov, a talented young Uzbek who got caught with a huge punch in Chicago.
Favorite Sleeper - Carlos Gongora (Ecuador)
Gongora is the youngest fighter in this field, at just 19, and already has rolled up some impressive results. He beat Blanco easily at the 2007 Pan Am Games before losing to Correa, and was outclassed by Korobov in Chicago, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Ecuadorean boxing seems to be on the rise, and this kid is an exciting prospect with a pleasing style.
81kg
Weight-Class Rating - 1 Star (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Abbos Atoev (Uzbekistan) 2) Artur Beterbiev (Russia), 3) Yerkebuian Shynaliyev (Kazakhstan)
There are some young guys at the top of this group, but overall it is not going to be a weight with many likely thrills. Atoev, the surprise winner in Chicago, and Shynaliyev are very similar. Both are rough, aggressive, short southpaws in their early 20's. Beterbiev, and many of the other Europeans here, are more in line with the stiff, technical stereotype. With no Cuban or American, the field from the Americas is unproven and this weight is too big for most of Asia. Perhaps 23-year-old Ismayl Sillakh, a Ukrainian with an African father, will put it together and challenge.
Favorite Sleeper - Djakhon Kurbanov (Tajikistan)
Not really a sleeper as much as just another solid fighter who might medal. The 22-year-old Tajik was DQ'd in Chicago with seven seconds left of a fight he was winning against Shynaliyev. He also won the 2006 Asian Games gold and rolled through the Thailand qualifier.
91kg
Weight-Class Rating - 2 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Clemente Russo (Italy) 2) Rakhim Chakhiev (Russia), 3) Osmay Acosta (Cuba)
Sadly, not too much excitement here. Russo is charismatic, but fights with his feet, Chakhiev is an old-school strongman without silky skills, and Acosta is young but inconsistent in his career so far. After those three there isn't that much more to look forward to either - John M'Bumba of France was exciting in Chicago before falling to Chakhiev and China's Yushan Nijiati will have the crowd behind him.
Favorite Sleeper - Oleksandr Usyk (Ukraine)
Usyk is an interesting character, because he won a bronze medal in the European Championships just two years ago as a Middleweight. He replaced Poyatsika after Chicago, and won four tough bouts fairly easily in Italy to qualify. It will be interesting to see if he brings some nice skills up with him to the heavyweights.
91+kg
Weight-Class Rating - 3.5 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Islam Timurziev (Russia) 2) Roberto Cammarelle (Italy), 3) Vyacheslav Glazkov (Ukraine)
The big men should be pretty good to watch this time, thanks to some giants and experienced returners. Timurziev didn't show to fight the Olympic veteran Cammarelle in Chicago, with appendicitis apparently, but his myriad health problems seem to be behind him for now. Glazkov is not that exciting, but did very well in Chicago, including a stoppage win over Olympic veteran Jaroslav Jaksto. Beyond those three you have 6-8 Chinese giant Zhang Zhilei, 6-7 Brit David Price, dangerous Bulgarian veteran Kubrat Pulev, and the young Cuban Robert Alfonso. I expect this to be a lot more fun than some may think, despite the supposed downturn in heavies and no American being involved. Expect some KOs.
Favorite Sleeper - None
There doesn't appear to be anyone outside of the favorites who can challenge at this weight.
Last edited by emile on 24 Jun 2008, 10:50, edited 1 time in total.
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thismodernlove
- Heavyweight

Thanks for the nice comments. I tried to be as objective as possible, and it's hard to justify placing fighters like Yanez and Molina in the top echelon of their weights, based on how they did at home in the World Championships. That said, they are so young that they have more possibility of sharp improvement than other fighters, so I'm not counting them out.
Ali and Wilder have a better chance of getting a good draw IMO. I did mention Williams, and I think, unless he gets hosed in the draw, he has a great chance to medal. Estrada is in a tough spot, as the least accomplished US fighter and in one of the deepest fields. I don't think there is a possible draw he can medal from, but I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
Ali and Wilder have a better chance of getting a good draw IMO. I did mention Williams, and I think, unless he gets hosed in the draw, he has a great chance to medal. Estrada is in a tough spot, as the least accomplished US fighter and in one of the deepest fields. I don't think there is a possible draw he can medal from, but I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
You have overlooked one of the best 91 kg fighters. Iran's Ali Mazaheri has defeated several top fighters in the world. With a knockout victory over Denis Poyatsika and another over All-African Games Champion Emad Abdelhalim Ali.emile wrote:91kg
Weight-Class Rating - 2 Stars (of 5)
Top 3 Fighters- 1) Clemente Russo (Italy) 2) Rakhim Chakhiev (Russia), 3) Osmay Acosta (Cuba)
Sadly, not too much excitement here. Russo is charismatic, but fights with his feet, Chakhiev is an old-school strongman without silky skills, and Acosta is young but inconsistent in his career so far. After those three there isn't that much more to look forward to either - John M'Bumba of France was exciting in Chicago before falling to Chakhiev and China's Yushan Nijiati will have the crowd behind him.
Favorite Sleeper - Oleksandr Usyk (Ukraine)
Usyk is an interesting character, because he won a bronze medal in the European Championships just two years ago as a Middleweight. He replaced Poyatsika after Chicago, and won four tough bouts fairly easily in Italy to qualify. It will be interesting to see if he brings some nice skills up with him to the heavyweights.
He was also the 2006 Asian Games Champion and the 2007 Asian Championship gold medal winner. He also holds several victorys over tough Uzbeki Jasur Matchanov.
I think Mazaheri is easily top 3 in this weight class... The Sleeper atleast.
I'll admit that I'm basing my rankings heavily on recent form - and I generally don't put a lot of stock in tournaments outside of the World and Continental Championships and Olympic qualifiers.
I didn't see Mazaheri in Chicago, because he got beaten pretty easily in his first fight against Milorad Gajovic. I did see Gajovic twice and he was a big-hearted but somewhat limited guy who was beaten easily by Russo (although he did qualify for the Olympics by beating Alizade in Greece). Mazaheri won the Thailand qualifier, but it wasn't a very tough field. Matchanov has not proven to be very strong - he was also beaten fairly easily in his first fight in Chicago, by the unremarkable Mihail Muntean of Moldova.
From the Iranian team, it's a shame that Jasem Delavari didn't qualify - he gave Hunter a very good fight in Chicago and was unlucky to lose. Probably the Iranian I'm most interested in is 81kg Mehdi Ghorbani, who is only 20 and has some decent results to his credit.
Anyway, I can't see putting Mazaheri in the top 3 based on his recent result (edited to say result and not results - admittedly, I'm putting a lot of stock in that one loss to Gajovic). Iran doesn't look too strong to me. Now I think you'd have a better argument saying that I'm underrating the Egyptians, given how well they did in Athens (suspicions or not). I also suspect that there will a few decent Algerians and Moroccans, but they don't fight in big tournaments enough to be sure which are the best.
I didn't see Mazaheri in Chicago, because he got beaten pretty easily in his first fight against Milorad Gajovic. I did see Gajovic twice and he was a big-hearted but somewhat limited guy who was beaten easily by Russo (although he did qualify for the Olympics by beating Alizade in Greece). Mazaheri won the Thailand qualifier, but it wasn't a very tough field. Matchanov has not proven to be very strong - he was also beaten fairly easily in his first fight in Chicago, by the unremarkable Mihail Muntean of Moldova.
From the Iranian team, it's a shame that Jasem Delavari didn't qualify - he gave Hunter a very good fight in Chicago and was unlucky to lose. Probably the Iranian I'm most interested in is 81kg Mehdi Ghorbani, who is only 20 and has some decent results to his credit.
Anyway, I can't see putting Mazaheri in the top 3 based on his recent result (edited to say result and not results - admittedly, I'm putting a lot of stock in that one loss to Gajovic). Iran doesn't look too strong to me. Now I think you'd have a better argument saying that I'm underrating the Egyptians, given how well they did in Athens (suspicions or not). I also suspect that there will a few decent Algerians and Moroccans, but they don't fight in big tournaments enough to be sure which are the best.
Sorry, I missed those words about Williams. I agree that Estrada has the weakest chance of a medal, but you never know. I was impressed that he won gold in Guatemala.emile wrote:Thanks for the nice comments. I tried to be as objective as possible, and it's hard to justify placing fighters like Yanez and Molina in the top echelon of their weights, based on how they did at home in the World Championships. That said, they are so young that they have more possibility of sharp improvement than other fighters, so I'm not counting them out.
Ali and Wilder have a better chance of getting a good draw IMO. I did mention Williams, and I think, unless he gets hosed in the draw, he has a great chance to medal. Estrada is in a tough spot, as the least accomplished US fighter and in one of the deepest fields. I don't think there is a possible draw he can medal from, but I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
Wilder just scored an RSC victory over a boxer from China. He has some very solid victories, but has been a little inconsistent. I do think he could surprise some people and medal.
I think Matchanov proved he was plenty strong enough when he defeated Jose Payares, Clemente Russo and Vitalijus Subacius on route to a Bronze medal at the 2005 World Championship.emile wrote:I'll admit that I'm basing my rankings heavily on recent form - and I generally don't put a lot of stock in tournaments outside of the World and Continental Championships and Olympic qualifiers.
I didn't see Mazaheri in Chicago, because he got beaten pretty easily in his first fight against Milorad Gajovic. I did see Gajovic twice and he was a big-hearted but somewhat limited guy who was beaten easily by Russo (although he did qualify for the Olympics by beating Alizade in Greece). Mazaheri won the Thailand qualifier, but it wasn't a very tough field. Matchanov has not proven to be very strong - he was also beaten fairly easily in his first fight in Chicago, by the unremarkable Mihail Muntean of Moldova.
From the Iranian team, it's a shame that Jasem Delavari didn't qualify - he gave Hunter a very good fight in Chicago and was unlucky to lose. Probably the Iranian I'm most interested in is 81kg Mehdi Ghorbani, who is only 20 and has some decent results to his credit.
Anyway, I can't see putting Mazaheri in the top 3 based on his recent result (edited to say result and not results - admittedly, I'm putting a lot of stock in that one loss to Gajovic). Iran doesn't look too strong to me. Now I think you'd have a better argument saying that I'm underrating the Egyptians, given how well they did in Athens (suspicions or not). I also suspect that there will a few decent Algerians and Moroccans, but they don't fight in big tournaments enough to be sure which are the best.
I also find it hard to comprehend Mazaheri's loss to Gajovic. Possibly some inconsistancy on his part, but i feel he is a strong fighter who could surpise some people and medal in Beijing. He is a personal favorite of mine, I think he is definatly a sleeper, based on the fact that he has proven he can compete with the best. Unfortunatly, he had a poor performance at the WC.
I'll be watching for Mazaheri, to see how he does. When I said there were people who knew more than me, you were one of the people I was thinking of. Perhaps it was just bad luck that Mazaheri and Matchanov both tanked at Chicago, and certainly there can be big swings in results between events here and there.
I may be bitter because Matchanov lost to Muntean, and then I saw Muntean's next fight, and it was the single worst boxing exhibition that I saw in my entire time in Chicago.
I may be bitter because Matchanov lost to Muntean, and then I saw Muntean's next fight, and it was the single worst boxing exhibition that I saw in my entire time in Chicago.
See the thing about 91 kg is that it is WIDE open. I think we ever wins the tournament is going to be the fighter whos having the best couple of days. I could possibly see Wilder winning a medal. Realisticly hes improved VASTLY since Chicago. With wins over Chakhiev and Nijiati. If he were to draw Usyk right away that would be slaughter. A former middleweight vs. a true 6'7'' Heavyweight. That would be crazy to watch.
Hopefully he has learned from his fight with Acosta
Hopefully he has learned from his fight with Acosta
Yeah, that may be a more interesting weight class than I'm giving credit. We haven't mentioned 2004 silver medalist Zuyev either, although he also crashed and burned early in Chicago.
I think my negative disposition comes from the 91kg fights being pretty dreary all through the World Championships. The final 8 there offered very little excitement. I'm hoping Wilder does figure things out quickly, as he could add a lot of intrigue to the group.
I think my negative disposition comes from the 91kg fights being pretty dreary all through the World Championships. The final 8 there offered very little excitement. I'm hoping Wilder does figure things out quickly, as he could add a lot of intrigue to the group.
Unfortunately, the other half of Wlad's style, the holding, would get him DQ'd.jtyson wrote:Wilder's size alone helps him a lot with the scoring system that is in place right now.
The US team should send him to Kronk for a few weeks of training. If he could utilize the jab like Wladimir does, in the scoring system, he would dominate
They don't have a gym right now - they are in another temporary location. Deontay is learning to use his reach and surprises a lot of people with power too. Sort of like Tommy Hearns did when he was a pro welterweight.jtyson wrote:Wilder's size alone helps him a lot with the scoring system that is in place right now.
The US team should send him to Kronk for a few weeks of training. If he could utilize the jab like Wladimir does, in the scoring system, he would dominate
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Just bumping this so this great thread doesn't get lost.
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Can't agree that this is a 
thread, but it won't go away for a while, even if it isn't "bumped."great
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
2 golds, 1 bronze for the USA according to the list. That would be much better than 2000 and 2004. I would love to see the US win 2 golds. I'm hoping for a few more medals than just 3. Realistically, 5 would be great. The draw has a lot to do with it. With only 9 guys, getting 5 to medal is going to be tough.
If one of the three that Emile has winning a medal gets a tough draw and boxes another top guy before the medal rounds and loses a close bout, then we could come away with just 2 medals like in '04. I'm hoping those 3 all make it to the finals with 2 golds and 1 silver and that two of the other 6 boxers makes it to the semi-finals and gets a bronze. It is also possible that one of those other 6 could win a gold or silver. My dream results would have 3 golds (not necessarily the 3 Emile predicts to win medals although they are the most likely USA candidates), 2 silvers and 2 bronzes. That would be an amazing result.
If one of the three that Emile has winning a medal gets a tough draw and boxes another top guy before the medal rounds and loses a close bout, then we could come away with just 2 medals like in '04. I'm hoping those 3 all make it to the finals with 2 golds and 1 silver and that two of the other 6 boxers makes it to the semi-finals and gets a bronze. It is also possible that one of those other 6 could win a gold or silver. My dream results would have 3 golds (not necessarily the 3 Emile predicts to win medals although they are the most likely USA candidates), 2 silvers and 2 bronzes. That would be an amazing result.
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locoxelbox
- Heavyweight

- Posts: 1124
- Joined: 04 Oct 2004, 12:26
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Emile, your predictions are GREAT! I must say I pretty much agree on everything and there are several of your sleepers I haven't seen that I will look out for (Nordine Oubaali, Anvar Yunusov, and Djakhon Kurbanov).
I don't see any injustice with big names left out. I do have hopes for some of the latin american boxers, specially McWilliams Arroyo (who's been injured for a while unfortunately), Hector Manzanilla, Eleider Alvarez and Oscar Rivas.
At 69 kg I'd favor Carlos Banteaux (CUB) and Hanati Silamu (CHN) over your choices Nurudinov and JJ Kim (I do agree on Andrade of course and BJ Saunders). I think Silamu was very unlucky to lose his Worlds semi-final against Non Boonjumnong. With hometurf on his side I expect him to go far. He's one of the few chinese boxers worth watching.
Regarding the strength of the weight classes I do disagree on 60 kg. Don't feel it's weaker than others and the three top men (Gavin, Tischenko and Ugas) makes it THE weight to watch in Beijing. I seem to be among the minority who thinks Frankie Gavin will be able to pull it out again. I agree with your five stars to the flyweights (where I favor Samir Mammadov over veteran Balakshin as a threat to Warren) but think you were generous to the middleweights where I feel Matvey Korobov is in a class of his own to make it interesting.
Regarding the cubans they will for sure make their worst Olympics since 1968 where they won two silver medals (of course not counting the 1984 and 1988 Olympics which they boycotted). Their best boxer Yordenis Ugas is up against two P4P boxers in Alexey Tischenko and Frankie Gavin. Of the others I think Rosniel Iglesias and Carlos Banteuax have the best shot at a gold medal. I'd be very surprised if they win more than four medals.
Regarding the US team they should do a lot better than Athens where they only won two medals. I'd say they can realistically get four medals: Warren, Andrade (both with shot at gold), Russell and Raynell Williams I feel are their best hopes. I'm not too high on Luis Yanez. However remember in 1999 USA won four gold at the Worlds then came home emptyhanded from the 2000 Olympics (2 silver, 1 bronze).
I don't see any injustice with big names left out. I do have hopes for some of the latin american boxers, specially McWilliams Arroyo (who's been injured for a while unfortunately), Hector Manzanilla, Eleider Alvarez and Oscar Rivas.
At 69 kg I'd favor Carlos Banteaux (CUB) and Hanati Silamu (CHN) over your choices Nurudinov and JJ Kim (I do agree on Andrade of course and BJ Saunders). I think Silamu was very unlucky to lose his Worlds semi-final against Non Boonjumnong. With hometurf on his side I expect him to go far. He's one of the few chinese boxers worth watching.
Regarding the strength of the weight classes I do disagree on 60 kg. Don't feel it's weaker than others and the three top men (Gavin, Tischenko and Ugas) makes it THE weight to watch in Beijing. I seem to be among the minority who thinks Frankie Gavin will be able to pull it out again. I agree with your five stars to the flyweights (where I favor Samir Mammadov over veteran Balakshin as a threat to Warren) but think you were generous to the middleweights where I feel Matvey Korobov is in a class of his own to make it interesting.
Regarding the cubans they will for sure make their worst Olympics since 1968 where they won two silver medals (of course not counting the 1984 and 1988 Olympics which they boycotted). Their best boxer Yordenis Ugas is up against two P4P boxers in Alexey Tischenko and Frankie Gavin. Of the others I think Rosniel Iglesias and Carlos Banteuax have the best shot at a gold medal. I'd be very surprised if they win more than four medals.
Regarding the US team they should do a lot better than Athens where they only won two medals. I'd say they can realistically get four medals: Warren, Andrade (both with shot at gold), Russell and Raynell Williams I feel are their best hopes. I'm not too high on Luis Yanez. However remember in 1999 USA won four gold at the Worlds then came home emptyhanded from the 2000 Olympics (2 silver, 1 bronze).
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therealPunchDrunk
- Heavyweight

- Posts: 132
- Joined: 02 Dec 2007, 23:36
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
I just came home from the EU championships in Poland, didn't get to see the finals... I predict a bunch of medals for England in Beijing, since it is very clear that they're getting "AIBA credit" with the judges at the moment, while their opponents have a hard time getting their punches registered. Trainers from the other countries were talking about England as the "new mafia." One could speculate that the 2012 Olympics being held in London, and AIBA's dependence on the Olympics as being a factor...
I'm actually doubtful of whether Frankie Gavin will be able to make 60kg. He was fighting at 64, looking like one of the bigger guys in the division, and he was constantly in sweatsuits, hooded coats and what have you, running around, to even make 64. He told me he walks around at 73 normally.
I'm actually doubtful of whether Frankie Gavin will be able to make 60kg. He was fighting at 64, looking like one of the bigger guys in the division, and he was constantly in sweatsuits, hooded coats and what have you, running around, to even make 64. He told me he walks around at 73 normally.
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therealPunchDrunk
- Heavyweight

- Posts: 132
- Joined: 02 Dec 2007, 23:36
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
The host nation always has extra goodwill from the judges, this is true with every AIBA tournament and championship I've seen. I wasn't in Chicago last year, but I heard from several sources that it was true there also (seen a bunch of the fights on video too). With that in mind, I'll predict the US team to have a harder time in China than in Chicago...locoxelbox wrote: Regarding the US team they should do a lot better than Athens where they only won two medals. I'd say they can realistically get four medals: Warren, Andrade (both with shot at gold), Russell and Raynell Williams I feel are their best hopes. I'm not too high on Luis Yanez. However remember in 1999 USA won four gold at the Worlds then came home emptyhanded from the 2000 Olympics (2 silver, 1 bronze).
Video Available on NBC
From the AP today:
Fans will be able to catch up on the Beijing Olympics on their laptops during their commute this summer.
That's the idea behind the NBC Olympics on the Go service the network announced Monday. Fans select which sports they're interested in, and the program automatically downloads the coverage once it's available. Then they can watch the events without being online.
The service, provided by Wavexpress, is free.
Beijing is 12 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time, which means many events will take place while Americans are sleeping. Coverage is expected to generally be available through the service within 12 hours after an event ends.
Users must have Microsoft Windows Vista to use the service, which runs on the operating system's Media Center. According to Microsoft, about 100 million people have Vista.
Fans will be able to catch up on the Beijing Olympics on their laptops during their commute this summer.
That's the idea behind the NBC Olympics on the Go service the network announced Monday. Fans select which sports they're interested in, and the program automatically downloads the coverage once it's available. Then they can watch the events without being online.
The service, provided by Wavexpress, is free.
Beijing is 12 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time, which means many events will take place while Americans are sleeping. Coverage is expected to generally be available through the service within 12 hours after an event ends.
Users must have Microsoft Windows Vista to use the service, which runs on the operating system's Media Center. According to Microsoft, about 100 million people have Vista.
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Now, that sucks! I don't have Vista and definitely am not buying it just for Olympic coverage! Wonder if NBC and Microsoft have a deal. 
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Bringing this back to the top.
Re: Early predictions for the Olympic Games
Traveller.Saunders, an 18-year-old English gypsy
