Sergio Martinez vs Kelly Pavlik predictions...

[Rocky Balboa]

I've seen the weigh-in & its clear for all to see that Pavlik is the naturally bigger man! If Martinez can put in a similar performance to his effort against Williams, then he could give Pavlik hell.

One wonders when the rigors of making 160lbs will catch up with Pavlik? Martinez proved against Williams he can go all the way if need be, so if its a long, drawn out affair, might Pavlik be too drained? Apparently Kelly lost five lbs on the day of the weigh-in!

I'll go with Pavlik by SD but if Matinez pulls of the upset I won't be surprised!

[rob12344]

I've seen the weigh-in & its clear for all to see that Pavlik is the naturally bigger man! If Martinez can put in a similar performance to his effort against Williams, then he could give Pavlik hell.

One wonders when the rigors of making 160lbs will catch up with Pavlik? Martinez proved against Williams he can go all the way if need be, so if its a long, drawn out affair, might Pavlik be too drained? Apparently Kelly lost five lbs on the day of the weigh-in!

I'll go with Pavlik by SD but if Matinez pulls of the upset I won't be surprised!

Pavliks team celebrated bigtime when he made weight... tells me there was a little bit of a struggle...

[glahn]

Martinez is going to have to dominate the fight to get the decision though. If it's even remotely close he'll get an SD loss or draw at best.

[rob12344]

Such an absolute shambles that this fight isn't being shown over here.

How does everyone see it going?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Sergio Martinez will dominate this fight. I actually think this fight will be an easy fight for him and he will win it clearly.

Pavlik is flat footed and needs to be set to punch. He has a basic punch variety, consisting of the old 1-2, and the occasional uppercuts on the inside. He does throw hooks but from distance he desperately needs his jab to be effective so that he can land the big shots. Sergio Martinez will take away his jab.

I expect Martinez to be much faster of hands and feet and constantly moving. This means Pavlik is going to have trouble landing the jab. Not only that, but he is going to be a sitting duck for Martinez who likes to throw as he comes in and then hold on the inside. Martinez will be coming in with the in and out game and Pavlik will be too slow to stop it. If he starts reaching with his jab and trying to double up the jab (which is the only advice his cornerman seems to give him), he'll walk into huge counters from martinez, who KO'd Cintron and rocked Williams several times. Martinez has power when he sits on his punches, and Pavlik can be rocked, as he was by Taylor and Hopkins.

I don't see how Pavlik can really get to Martinez in the fight and I think it will be easier than everyone expects. Remember, 43 year old Hopkins won every round against Pavlik and could have had him out of there if he turned it up.

As for Pavlik, he has power indeed, but I don't think he is going to have much success landing his power right hand. Martinez has shown the ability to take Cintron and Williams punches too, so although Pavlik probably hits harder, I have some confidence in martinez, since he hardly ever gets hit flush because he rolls with the punches.

So it's a clear win for Martinez for me.. I always take the more skilled boxer over the basic plodder.

Well...

i haven't seen the fight, but im delighted for martinez and for my balance!!!!

[Autobarn]

great result for martinez. he might have to do it again re the rematch clause. but he has taken hard fights and shown his talent. he deserves a top 10 pound for pound ranking.

i think the british and irish fighters barker, macklin and lee might be interested in martinez, who came through in the UK. they could certainly be a marketable(ish) opponent for the argentinean. martinez will surely dump the light middleweight title, which ryan rhodes is the top contender for.

everyone is going to say "martinez must rematch williams." but it is martinez who took the risk after "losing" to williams, martinez who used that great fight to advance his career. i hope martinez and his promoter can pick the opponents, in order to extend sergio's time at the top. no doubt the current scene are just banging on about paul williams, the gangler who priced himself out of pavlik.

then again, it's probably like martinez to use his skills to gun for the big money, meaning rematches with pavlik AND williams. now that he's The Man, hopefully things go a bit smoother for him.

[whiskey]

I say he goes after Sturm and gets the WBA title too.

Looks like Pavlik is well and truly out of fashion now.

If he heads to super middle, his size and strength will be nothing new. Infact he's perhaps weaker and only as tall as most of them.

If he does go up, then he should maybe look towards the first fighters eliminated out of the Super six this summer.

Personally i think he loses to all of the S6 competitors.

[twenty six]

Let the lobbying begin for Rhodes.
Surely Martinez will vacate and work with the Middleweight titles.
Martinez effectively priced himself out at LM, but there are some lucrative pay days at Middle.

[Datsue]

I say he goes after Sturm and gets the WBA title too.

I would lovelovelovelovelovelovelovelove for Martinez to beat up Sturm.

However, I am not sure I would actually want to view that fight; Sturm's cautious, overly-jab happy approach would not mesh well with Martinez's counter-punching style if you ask me.

Martinez is too old to be mismanaged or maneouvred into boring fights. He needs come-forward lads to shine against & I think Martinez could outpoint Paul Williams in a rematch. The most impressive thing for me was the way Martinez wanted it in the ninth, tenth, eleventh & twelfth against Pavlik. He beat Pavlik up in those rounds & Pavlik looked utterly gutted.

Anyway, big ups to Maravilla! Viva el nuevo campeón!

[Autobarn]

don't think sturm has much of a claim to the crown. paymasters HBO won't give an eff about him

martinez can make big money and get better recognition in pavlik and paul williams rematches.

i just hope martinez - who has taken some massive risks of recent - gets a chance to grow into his title a little bit. get himself in a position of power, a couple of defenses under his belt, become the "home" fighter on shows by his own promoter. make williams wait a bit, because williams sure as shite wasn't going to give martinez a rematch!

i would love to see martinez vs any of these: macklin, lee, barker, and daniel geale. there are some talented and exciting fighters on the way up, at middleweight. i don't just want to see martinez v pavlik and williams. i want to see him vs other guys too.

good that you brought up rhodes, as he earned (for want of a better expression) a shot at martinez, winning a brilliant elim fight vs a top 10 fighter (moore). obviously martinez-rhodes won't be on the cards. i wonder if it could be rhodes v duddy/chavez jr for the vacant WBC title.

[twenty six]

Auto,
If you look at the WBC rankings No1 Chavez is moving up to middlweight.
Word is he'll be staying there. Fights Duddy 26-06-10 after serving his suspension.
No2 Margarito is fighting for the International title Rhodes vacated on the Williams bill 08-05-10.
No3 Cintron fights Williams at middlewight 08-05-10.
Word is he'll also be staying there.
No4 is Rhodes.
No5 is Alcine who recently beat Cancleaux.
I would love to see Maragrito v Rhodes for vacant title.

[Deserter]

i just hope martinez - who has taken some massive risks of recent - gets a chance to grow into his title a little bit. get himself in a position of power, a couple of defenses under his belt, become the "home" fighter on shows by his own promoter. make williams wait a bit, because williams sure as shite wasn't going to give martinez a rematch!

I agree 100%. Martinez's boxing career is the sort of stuff that would make amazing movie material - you couldn't script it better.
I remember watching the young, flash version get worn down and stopped by Margarito at Welter, but he came back from that setback like a man, - went on the road fighting against strong 'home' fighters like our own Richard Williams while being forced to live away from his home country.
He spent years in the wilderness, got robbed against Cintron and fought a war with Williams (that made the touted p4p prospect look completely human at a time where he was starting to look untouchable), before finally, now, becoming a world champion at the grand old age of 35 by moving up in weight and defeating a power puncher on his own turf.
I really want Martinez to have a chance to enjoy those spoils now - I want him to earn some really good money that will set him and his family up for life.
It's so rare in boxing that the good guys finish first in this manner, so I want him to enjoy every single second of his time in the sun.

[Datsue]

I agree 100%. Martinez's boxing career is the sort of stuff that would make amazing movie material - you couldn't script it better.
I remember watching the young, flash version get worn down and stopped by Margarito at Welter, but he came back from that setback like a man, - went on the road fighting against strong 'home' fighters like our own Richard Williams while being forced to live away from his home country.
He spent years in the wilderness, got robbed against Cintron and fought a war with Williams (that made the touted p4p prospect look completely human at a time where he was starting to look untouchable), before finally, now, becoming a world champion at the grand old age of 35 by moving up in weight and defeating a power puncher on his own turf.
I really want Martinez to have a chance to enjoy those spoils now - I want him to earn some really good money that will set him and his family up for life.
It's so rare in boxing that the good guys finish first in this manner, so I want him to enjoy every single second of his time in the sun.

Totally agree.

He seems like such a lovely bloke, too:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFMKJgT4 ... r_embedded

His post-fight interview was class as well, but I can't find that online...

[Asterix]

I've seen the weigh-in & its clear for all to see that Pavlik is the naturally bigger man! If Martinez can put in a similar performance to his effort against Williams, then he could give Pavlik hell.

One wonders when the rigors of making 160lbs will catch up with Pavlik? Martinez proved against Williams he can go all the way if need be, so if its a long, drawn out affair, might Pavlik be too drained? Apparently Kelly lost five lbs on the day of the weigh-in!

I'll go with Pavlik by SD but if Matinez pulls of the upset I won't be surprised!

Pavliks team celebrated bigtime when he made weight... tells me there was a little bit of a struggle...

Pavlik put on 18 pounds since the weigh in. He is now a huuuuuge drainer. As bad as Paul Williams was at welterweight.

[Floyd]

It could be possible Martinez goes back down and defends his lightmiddle title. There are alot better matchups and potential money there then at middle.

[lefthook82]

So happy for him. When I sawe 11/4 Martinez points I didnt bite but remember thinking how ridicolous those odds were

He is one the foremost reaons as to why I like southpaw slicksters. i still remember his beatings against Richard Williams 2 and Adrian Stone and my favourite line of commentary in boxing from Adam Smith...(referring to Stone fight) ' whatever happens in this fight, he wont be invited back to this country'

This is a legit, 100% bona-fide win. Pavlik was neevr beaten at MW and apart from a couple of dicey rounds in Taylor 1 he never come close to losing. I hope he can make some money before age catches up with him

Wish we could have got this live. Somehting in my DNA prevents me from watching delayed fights that I know have gone to points

[Autobarn]

It could be possible Martinez goes back down and defends his lightmiddle title. There are alot better matchups and potential money there then at middle.

i'd say the real money is at middleweight. this is where martinez is a true champion, and the rematches of his 2 great performances - vs pavlik and paul williams - is surely where the money is. these are the opponents that HBO will give the OK to.

i just hope his promoter can get him TV dates against other opponents as well, perhaps some of the good prospect/contenders.

i mean, martinez took a massive risk v williams. he'd taken it late notice, he'd not trained for a middleweight, never mind a world class fighter. he went 12 epic rounds but didn't get the verdict...and then beats kelly pavlik, knowing that he probably has to win big to get a decision, knowing that he'll probably have to beat him twice as well...

[mickey1975]

IF Pavlik wants it,that will be the next fight.It will be worth a lot more than a few "easy" defences,as well.He is Argentinian,a country in economic crisis worse than anyone.The H.B.O money will talk,and Sergio will be laughing all the way to the bank.I guess he wont be bothered if its Pavlik or Williams judging by how he has dealt with both

[Autobarn]

but has pavlik got it in him to a) make 160 again and b) go through 12 rounds of getting peppered by martinez?

i fear some kind of catchweight farce, some last minute over the weight shenanigans as well. pavlik is in a very tough spot. he'll want the big money, but he has to choose between 2 different kinds of unpleasantness - martinez at 160 or bute at 168...

[Eraserhead]

Beating Williams (well, in most peoples' eyes) and Pavlik in back-to-back fights is a tremendous achievement. Who would have thought the unknown Argie that Richard Williams floored once upon a time would go on to achieve all this?

I've got a feeling Martinez stays at 154, by the way. He still makes the weight comfortably and there are probably better money fights at 154 than there are at middleweight. HBO certainly seemed to think that was the case, and they are ultimately the chief paymasters.

[alexpaterson]

Great win for Martinez who I really like as a boxer, I was impressed with Zbik last night maybe a fight with Pavlik for him.

[Autobarn]

i can't see how he goes back down to 154. at 35 it's harder to make 154 than 160. i see the bigger fights being up at 160.

his middleweight championship (unified WBC/WBO and ring mag) is more prestigious than the light middleweight title (WBC). a division with a deeper history, is middleweight, etc.

martinez has to major fights up at 160 - the 2 rematches. and there are plenty of marketable (macklin, lee, barker, geale) or impressive (golovkin, pirog, korobov) contenders.

which are these big light middleweight fights? more than one person has mentioned this...

it would be nice to see martinez drop down to 154, defend that belt, before moving up for a big middleweight encounter...but i can't see it happening.

[rob12344]

The only reason to go down to 154 is to find Margarito.

The top welterweights aren't coming up to 154 to fight him as he is too hard a fight.

[Floyd]

He could fight Cotto after he beats Foreman.

[mickey1975]

He could fight Cotto after he beats Foreman.

I thought that.Shouldnt be hard to make and build his name even more.Cotto has to win first though.Bob doesnt seem to sentimental about Miguel anymore either,he would certainly make the match

[Counter-puncher]

Such an absolute shambles that this fight isn't being shown over here.

How does everyone see it going?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Sergio Martinez will dominate this fight. I actually think this fight will be an easy fight for him and he will win it clearly.

Pavlik is flat footed and needs to be set to punch. He has a basic punch variety, consisting of the old 1-2, and the occasional uppercuts on the inside. He does throw hooks but from distance he desperately needs his jab to be effective so that he can land the big shots. Sergio Martinez will take away his jab.

I expect Martinez to be much faster of hands and feet and constantly moving. This means Pavlik is going to have trouble landing the jab. Not only that, but he is going to be a sitting duck for Martinez who likes to throw as he comes in and then hold on the inside. Martinez will be coming in with the in and out game and Pavlik will be too slow to stop it. If he starts reaching with his jab and trying to double up the jab (which is the only advice his cornerman seems to give him), he'll walk into huge counters from martinez, who KO'd Cintron and rocked Williams several times. Martinez has power when he sits on his punches, and Pavlik can be rocked, as he was by Taylor and Hopkins.

I don't see how Pavlik can really get to Martinez in the fight and I think it will be easier than everyone expects. Remember, 43 year old Hopkins won every round against Pavlik and could have had him out of there if he turned it up.

As for Pavlik, he has power indeed, but I don't think he is going to have much success landing his power right hand. Martinez has shown the ability to take Cintron and Williams punches too, so although Pavlik probably hits harder, I have some confidence in martinez, since he hardly ever gets hit flush because he rolls with the punches.

So it's a clear win for Martinez for me.. I always take the more skilled boxer over the basic plodder.

Well...

i haven't seen the fight, but im delighted for martinez and for my balance!!!!

ditto, i had a couple of people trying to dissuade me but i stuck to my guns, skill over strength, get in there Martinez.

anyone else think Pavlik may get sacrificed to Bute by HBO next?

difficult one to call, that... sharpshooting liverpuncher vs lowbottom alky..... bill it as aversion-therapy for Pav as Bute smashes the toxins out of his booze-soaked frame.