The Battle for Cinco De Mayo

[ReggieDiggs]

Ya'll are trippin' if you think Canelo will be headlining against Floyds PPV on Cinco De Mayo. It's bad for business on both ends and for Showtime. Floyd will get the venue and the Cinco De Mayo date to have his PPV.

Idk about all that. Oscar has already said thats the plan & I trust Oscar more to line promotional sh!t up than I do Leonard who is Floyd's current promoter. Leonard was f#cking up simple sh!t like seating arrangements ffs.

[scallum]

18th June onwards.

So if it's Cinco de Mayo weekend, Khan has no excuses.

I think Mayweather will take it, especially since Amir's suspect chin could provide Floyd with the KO his recent resume lacks. Mayweather has lost a step, but not enough to fall victim to Khan.[/quote]

Trust me no mexican mex/Americans are gonna watch Floyd fight khan cinco de mayo weekend.

Meaning that shiit will do horrible.

In a nutshell if Floyd ain't fighting a Latino they won't give a Fuuck what he does and Floyd knows this very well too.[/quote]
You do know Floyd fought Ssm on A Mexican Holiday and got 1.4 ppv buys

[scallum]

Haymon is the smarter guy he will likely figure it out . If not it will be horrible for the sport to have 2 ppv on same day. Already with Streaming ,Ppv is not the same as in the past. To have anyone going against the #1 draw in the sport is just not a smart move.

[jujigatame]

Only Mayweather fight I'd buy over Canelo/Cotto would probably be a Manny fight. Even then it might come down to undercard quality.

I'd also point out that May 5th, 2015 is on a Tuesday. So there's not necessarily one clear "Cinco de Mayo weekend" to fight over.

[crusader]

Only Mayweather fight I'd buy over Canelo/Cotto would probably be a Manny fight. Even then it might come down to undercard quality.

At first I thought you wrote Canelo/Clottey and I was like WTF?

[Badhusker]

If Floyd picks Khan, he would be smart to do it in the UK...where he could go off the Cinco date. A Khan fight in the US would be good for some fans, but to the more knowledgeable fans it isn't a great fight. Khan has not even established himself as a welterweight yet, and hasn't had a credible win in about 3 years.

A smarter move for Floyd would be to take on Danny Garcia. He isn't established at welter either, but he is unbeaten, knocked Khan out, and has some credible wins lately.

Best of all of course would be him vs Pac, but I won't hold my breath on that fight.

[uptconnect]

Floyd owns those dates until he retires/gives them up.
The numbers he generates, while diminishing, are still well above anyone else and it's a business decision that will almost always tip towards the fighter who consistantly outsells every one else.
He and Richard and Al punked Arum for a popular date not long ago when Arum already had a card scheduled first, and Slob was furious, but in the end, he relented and moved his card.
No smart promoter would be willing to undersell a PPV card because of split viewership, and if Floyd, knowing he can, comes and says he's fighting on the date you already have, well, that's a dick move on his part, but you'd be wise to move to another date if you want to maximise your PPV sales. It's a game of chicken, in a way.
Neither side wants to split PPV buys, most of all Floyd, but Floyd banks on the other guy blinking because he can, due to his financial weight in the sport.

[ReggieDiggs]

From what I’ve read, Cotto and Canelo’s most recent PPV numbers aren’t that great (Cotto-Martinez = 315K; Canelo-Angulo = 350K) and Mayweather’s Showtime contract guarantees him a minimum payday (of around $32m I think).

So if HBO was to stage the Cotto-Canelo fight at the same time as Floyd’s traditional Cinco de Mayo weekend (May 2nd, 2015) bout, who do you think is affected the most? Even if HBO’s Canelo-Cotto PPV event reduces Showtime’s numbers, is Floyd’s actual take-home pay going to be adversely affected to any great degree? Who suffers most: Golden Boy Promotions or Mayweather Promotions?

Do you think that HBO & Oscar De La Hoya would risk going head-to-head against the biggest PPV draw in boxing? How many buys would HBO & Golden Boy have to recoup in order to fund Cotto & Canelo’s paydays, as well as make the event commercially viable?

Based on the numbers alone, it doesn’t make business sense for HBO & Golden Boy to go head-to-head on the same night as Showtime & Mayweather.

I'm thinking of this too & I'm thinking the opposite though. I think Miguel vs Saul increases there usual average & Floyd takes a hit cuz he needs bigger numbers cuz hes making more money. Its like a game of chicken where Saul & Miguel are in a rusted out El Camino & Floyd & Amir or whoever are in a Bentley all shiny & sh!t. Who turns first here & if neither turns whos taking the most damage? Imo Saul & Miguel have lil to lose & are the favorite here unless Floyd can pull an interesting opponent out of his ass.

[uptconnect]

Imo Saul & Miguel have lil to lose & are the favorite here unless Floyd can pull an interesting opponent out of his ass.

Saul's career is at a pivotal stage where his PPV numbers matter more than ever.
I guarantee you that Oscar and HBO would move a Canelo card if Floyd tried to jack the date.
So while Floyd and SHO, revenue generated-wise, might stand to lose more overall if there's dueling cards, It's Canelo's career that needs the biggest numbers he can get, to keep projecting him upward. Bad PPV numbers for Canelo? That's bad news. Bad PPV numbers for Floyd, that are still much higher than anyone else? Meh. No worries. (Aside from poor SHO)

Those PPV sales numbers are what almost solely decides who's the number 1 power in the sport.
Floyd's on the way out, with guaranteed minimums that are so large, the back end of his $ is probably an afterthought. I think if this plays out like Oscar says it's going to, Floyd and Al will gamble that Oscar and HBO will blink first, and they'll win that bet.

[ReggieDiggs]

Imo Saul & Miguel have lil to lose & are the favorite here unless Floyd can pull an interesting opponent out of his ass.

Saul's career is at a pivotal stage where his PPV numbers matter more than ever.
I guarantee you that Oscar and HBO would move a Canelo card if Floyd tried to jack the date.
So while Floyd and SHO, revenue generated-wise, might stand to lose more overall if there's dueling cards, It's Canelo's career that needs the biggest numbers he can get, to keep projecting him upward. Bad PPV numbers for Canelo? That's bad news. Bad PPV numbers for Floyd, that are still much higher than anyone else? Meh. No worries. (Aside from poor SHO)

Those PPV sales numbers are what almost solely decides who's the number 1 power in the sport.
Floyd's on the way out, with guaranteed minimums that are so large, the back end of his $ is probably an afterthought. I think if this plays out like Oscar says it's going to, Floyd and Al will gamble that Oscar and HBO will blink first, and they'll win that bet.

I disagree about Oscar blinking first although thats only because Oscar would never staredown Floyd for this date anyway. He'll be looking firmly @ ground the whole time. From the videos I've seen of Oscar talking about this is its seems Saul has made this decision more than Oscar. Oscar was also against Saul fighting Erislandy, but Saul is the guy in the drivers seat & if you think Saul wouldnt staredown Floyd for this date & not blink you're wrong imho.

PPV is important for the guys trying to be the face of the sport, but I dont agree things are all that pivotal for Saul right now if he doesn't go up with each fight. I think the gamble to overtake Floyd on a Mexican holiday for the #1 draw in the sport is a gamble worth taking & worse case he does 300k buys which is what hes doing now so he takes a 2nd L to the biggest draw in the sport. I see this has a no lose situation for Saul with lotsa opportunity for a legit win if he can outdraw Floyd or moral W's if he can come close to beating Floyd.

[uptconnect]

I see this has a no lose situation for Saul with lotsa opportunity for a legit win if he can outdraw Floyd or moral W's if he can come close to beating Floyd.

Fair enough assessment.
But I feel as though perception holds too much weight in boxing for HBO and GBP to gamble on this and they couldn't simply shrug off another 300-400K total with Canelo. As is the PPV model, and especially so when you're still pushing towards and trying to reach the pinnacle, facing off with the well established top earner on the same date he's taken as his own for a while now, would be like choosing to open a new fast food burger joint next to McDonalds.
Sure, if you outsell McDonald's, then great, you did it! (You most likely won't, though.)
A split viewership means everyone loses. Floyd is one year or so away from Scrooge McDuck status while Canelo would be dumb to give up a large % of PPV buys just to prove a point, and I'll be absolutely shocked if HBO and Oscar try honestly for either of those dates, despite Canelo's demand. They'll say the right things, of course.
But HBO and Oscar aren't into making far less money on a Canelo card than they could if they simply picked another date. Profits drive this thing of ours.

Canelo and his people would be better served just running out the clock on Floyd and getting those dates by default.
He already tried to physically take what's Floyd's and failed. He should just make his millions on other days for another year or two, in my humble opinion.

[ReggieDiggs]

Fair enough assessment.
But I feel as though perception holds too much weight in boxing for HBO and GBP to gamble on this and they couldn't simply shrug off another 300-400K total with Canelo. As is the PPV model, and especially so when you're still pushing towards and trying to reach the pinnacle, facing off with the well established top earner on the same date he's taken as his own for a while now, would be like choosing to open a new fast food burger joint next to McDonalds.
Sure, if you outsell McDonald's, then great, you did it! (You most likely won't, though.)

I get it, but idk if the McDonald's analogy is a solid one here. And if it is I'd say maybe Floyd is McDonalds & Saul is a popular mom & pop Mexican joint right next door & its Cinco De Mayo weekend in a Mexican heavy part of town. I think Floyd's activity level might be getting some people bored with Chicken McNuggets too to keep the analogy going. This is Floyd's busiest period since he started doing PPV's & I don't think people necessarily wanna be spending $140+ a year on Floyd fights. I think people could be getting bored with Floyd &/or with his opponent options on top of all this. Saul vs Miguel is a monster movie fight, Floyd vs Amir or Kell or Keith not so much. That plays into things too. There are many variables here that I believe have a nice lean towards Saul or aren't leaned as heavily Floyd's way as one might think. Saul is a popular Mexican fighting a top draw in his own right on a Mexican holiday in an anticipated fight & Floyd is likely to fight a guy who's not Mexican or seen as a threat.

Canelo and his people would be better served just running out the clock on Floyd and getting those dates by default.
He already tried to physically take what's Floyd's and failed. He should just make his millions on other days for another year or two, in my humble opinion.

Mexican fighters aren't really known for default wins & I don't think this will be a thing Saul will wait to get the default W in. From what I've seen of Saul I believe him to be a highly competitive guy & I think this will @ the end of the day just end up being part of his competitive spirit. Whatever happens here & whoever ends up being more right about this, you, I or someone else, I'm anxiously awaiting to see how this all pans out.