Sergey Kovalev vs. Anthony Yarde - 24 August 2019

[polecateddy]

I think Yarde may demonstrate a terrible chin in this fight, and I wouldn’t be very surprised if just like Jason Matthews and Mark Prince before him, he retires when he realises just how far away from world champion level he really is.

[jimcook]

expecting , and hoping for a kovalev victory. cant stand all the lions in camp bullshit, all the fake mayweathery pish, and the muscleman/weightlifter/probably on peds approach to boxing that seems to be becoming more prevalent these days.
on paper kov has everything in his favour, bar youth. he has been there and done it , all at the highest level, and the only man to legitimately best the great andre ward. yarde has knocked out a few hand picked ,past it, never has beens. Yarde has crap feet, average speed, dodgy defence, questionable experience, and a trainer who has a bigger ego than his fighter......all of which are reasons not to put money on him winning the fight.
If he was 10-1, i might put some money on him, hoping for a ko, or lucky punch, whatever....but he simply doesnt merit the low odds being given....it must be to do with the smartphone betting generation...where every thick kunt with a betting app and who follows chris ubank jr on instagram, thinks that big muscles and gangsta-rap demeanor means world class fighter.

[Controversial]

I expect Kovalev to stop him. Its a huge jump up in class for someone with such little experience. Plus he's fighting in Kovalev's home country. I expect Yarde to be stopped mid fight although I would love to be proved wrong.

[jamesmcdonnell]

expecting , and hoping for a kovalev victory. cant stand all the lions in camp bullshit, all the fake mayweathery pish, and the muscleman/weightlifter/probably on peds approach to boxing that seems to be becoming more prevalent these days.
on paper kov has everything in his favour, bar youth. he has been there and done it , all at the highest level, and the only man to legitimately best the great andre ward. yarde has knocked out a few hand picked ,past it, never has beens. Yarde has crap feet, average speed, dodgy defence, questionable experience, and a trainer who has a bigger ego than his fighter......all of which are reasons not to put money on him winning the fight.
If he was 10-1, i might put some money on him, hoping for a ko, or lucky punch, whatever....but he simply doesnt merit the low odds being given....it must be to do with the smartphone betting generation...where every thick kunt with a betting app and who follows chris ubank jr on instagram, thinks that big muscles and gangsta-rap demeanor means world class fighter.

I'm going with Kovalev too, we've all seen these power punching monsters derailed befrore when they step up, big muscles don't count for shite in boxing, just ask Joshua.

[Controversial]

What do people think of Tunde Ajayi and his System 9? I was listening to a podcast interview with him, reckons it took him 10 years writing for 16-17 hours a day to design it hahaha. No sparring and repetition seems to be the main parts to it.

[forcefraser]

Win or lose they are millionaires now, so job done in many ways

Charlatans in the camp?

[polecateddy]

I think the repetition thing is nonsense really. I don't think there is any sports or skill games - such as chess, as I'm a chess player :) - where high volumes of repetition of skills in training is superior to experience in competing and working up through the levels over time. Going from journeyman opposition to face one of the better world champions is going to end really badly.

[Coco]

Win or lose they are millionaires now, so job done in many ways

Charlatans in the camp?

Exactly that, job well done

[Ricky]

Yarde winning is just guess work. The fact he hasn't yet faced an opponent that's hit him back will work against Yarde. Kovalev will knock him out inside 6.

Any prediction for anything is guesswork. There are degrees of probability and leaps of faith you take.

Bookies have to price Yarde as the underdog because they have to price him on what they know. But guess what, you don’t win money betting on things where the bookies have the whole story. You win money on bridging the gap where there’s incomplete information.

Quite a few of us believe Yarde is very good. Not ‘But Only Looking Good Against Limited Opposition Then Folding When He Takes A Step Up!’ good, but real deal good. How is this deduced? The good old eye test. That’s what bridges the gap. Served me pretty well in the past.

I keep ramming this home, but your quote represents a classic error among boxing fans. The corollary of ‘he’s a bit green’ is NOT ‘he’s definitely going to get knocked out’.

I agree, much of setting the boxing odds is just guesswork - Yarde and Kovalev haven't boxed before, and don't even have a common opponent.

The odds here are with Kovalev though. You can get 55% RoI on betting the world champion thats essentially dominated the LHW division since knocking out Nathan Clev. The price is so good because Yarde is that unknown quantity. Maybe when he leaps up from boxing journeymen to elite level he'll prove to be the real deal - but rarely have I seen a guy make this leap in class and come good. Not even Lomachenko pulled off that quick step up in opposition.

We'll see what happens, I think Kovalev does look that little bit vulnerable, but my money is on Yarde folding like Cleverly did when the clean shots start landing. Kov by KO is even money

[kbackup408]

Win or lose they are millionaires now, so job done in many ways

Charlatans in the camp?

under rated comment tbh, aren't we all striving in life to be financially secure the lads (yarde + tunde) did well!

[forcefraser]

They certainly have done well. They got the money by fighting literally nobody that any half decent British light heavy couldn't beat.

[KiwiRider]

Watching the press conference the Russians look at Tunde like he talks sh1t

It’s not just Russians

stuff you guys!
I nearly choked on my cuppa.
Tunde is like your version of Joseph Parker's manager (but with less coke)

[margaret thatcher]

I don't really praise that type of stuff, because then by extension we should all be praising anyone succesffuly playing the least risk for greatest reward card, as well as soft title defenses, etc. Obviously Kov isn't soft but often what is good from a business sense for fighters isn't what is best for fans.

[Coco]

Thought that was absolutely brilliant. Not slightly joking I loved it.

If it was up to me there’d be only proper technical analysis and no back stories or over dramatic promos.

Changing my call. Yarde doesn’t Use the philly shell properly, Kovalev has great straights and timing. A big right hand gets through sooner rather than later.

I really liked it too, also quality analysis. It would be different if the company men were doing it.

[Bard of Boxrec]

I think Yarde may demonstrate a terrible chin in this fight, and I wouldn’t be very surprised if just like Jason Matthews and Mark Prince before him, he retires when he realises just how far away from world champion level he really is.

There it is again , that weird corollary of ‘Yarde hasn’t stepped up yet’ > ‘Yarde is a terrible fighter and will be destroyed’.

Have you actually seen Yarde fight? Can you honestly say that is the skill set of a guy ‘that far away from world level’? Does he really look like Mark Prince to you? Or do you look at his knockout ratio and assume he’s a limited slugger, like so many people did back in the day with Kovalev himself?

In before ‘But He Has Only Been Looking Good Against Limited Opposition And History Is Littered With Fighters That Folded When They Took A Step Up!’

Some fans need to stop agonising about lessons from the past and look at matchups that are happening NOW on their own merits. If they are right I can assure you Yarde would not be priced how he is.

[polecateddy]

I don’t think you can really say he has a world beating skill set when he’s only faced journeyman opposition. I think there are various red flags that clearly indicate he’s got next to no chance - 1. It’s Russia. 2. Yarde’s been heavily protected. 3. He’s got a bizarre non-typical training routine. 4. I remember reports on this forum of him being knocked out in sparring.

[Counter-puncher]

I remember reports on this forum of him being knocked out in sparring.

[kbackup408]

I remember reports on this forum of him being knocked out in sparring.

It has got to the point where anyone with a semi decent name has got dropped/knocked out in sparring

[Bard of Boxrec]

I don’t think you can really say he has a world beating skill set when he’s only faced journeyman opposition. I think there are various red flags that clearly indicate he’s got next to no chance - 1. It’s Russia. 2. Yarde’s been heavily protected. 3. He’s got a bizarre non-typical training routine. 4. I remember reports on this forum of him being knocked out in sparring.

These aren’t very good reasons for claiming he has ‘next to no chance’.

Instead, call me crazy but I like to look at something as simple as ‘how good is Yarde?’ Well, you can get a picture of that without a murderer’s row of opposition. He is clearly very talented. agile, powerful, fast and accurate .

He also has an underused but very good jab that he needs to employ more, especially against a great jabber himself in Kovalev.

He also has great variety, a scary left hook and a crunching uppercut in his repertoire as well as a big right hand. And bangs to the body well, something kovalev’s been susceptible to before.

Add this to a solid defence. He rolls well, blocks well, has very good reflexes. And moves pretty well. He took next to no punishment against Sek.

You can tell just by looking at him that he is a lot better than Mark Prince for example, who wasn’t very good. So using Prince as an example why he’s going to get derailed isn’t very helpful.

These are all things you can see with your eyes and all factors that help bridge the gap in understanding that make Yarde a bettable proposition. Yes, we don’t know yet how Yarde will react when he’s hit - that’s the single biggest question mark. I can assure you if the bookies knew he was solid, this would be priced even more close.

[Ruthless-RKO]

[TheLeprechaun]

I don’t think you can really say he has a world beating skill set when he’s only faced journeyman opposition. I think there are various red flags that clearly indicate he’s got next to no chance - 1. It’s Russia. 2. Yarde’s been heavily protected. 3. He’s got a bizarre non-typical training routine. 4. I remember reports on this forum of him being knocked out in sparring.

These aren’t very good reasons for claiming he has ‘next to no chance’.

Instead, call me crazy but I like to look at something as simple as ‘how good is Yarde?’ Well, you can get a picture of that without a murderer’s row of opposition. He is clearly very talented. agile, powerful, fast and accurate .

He also has an underused but very good jab that he needs to employ more, especially against a great jabber himself in Kovalev.

He also has great variety, a scary left hook and a crunching uppercut in his repertoire as well as a big right hand. And bangs to the body well, something kovalev’s been susceptible to before.

Add this to a solid defence. He rolls well, blocks well, has very good reflexes. And moves pretty well. He took next to no punishment against Sek.

You can tell just by looking at him that he is a lot better than Mark Prince for example, who wasn’t very good. So using Prince as an example why he’s going to get derailed isn’t very helpful.

These are all things you can see with your eyes and all factors that help bridge the gap in understanding that make Yarde a bettable proposition. Yes, we don’t know yet how Yarde will react when he’s hit - that’s the single biggest question mark. I can assure you if the bookies knew he was solid, this would be priced even more close.

Betting on Yarde is idiotic in the circumstances. He is stepping up several levels here and against one of the biggest punchers in boxing pound for pound. In Kovalevs hometown also.

Technically, you're betting on Yarde's performances translating up a few levels which you just cannot do here, especially given the slim margins you're dealing with when you are in with a puncher like Kovalev. How do you know Yardes reflexes or defence are good enough at this level. He could get starched in one round here. Kovalev is coming off a dominant performance which I scored a shut out over Alvarez. He threw 800+ punches, showed good movement, good power, kept it simple and controlled the fight. I wouldn't even pick Yarde over Alvarez.

[kbackup408]

These aren’t very good reasons for claiming he has ‘next to no chance’.

Instead, call me crazy but I like to look at something as simple as ‘how good is Yarde?’ Well, you can get a picture of that without a murderer’s row of opposition. He is clearly very talented. agile, powerful, fast and accurate .

He also has an underused but very good jab that he needs to employ more, especially against a great jabber himself in Kovalev.

He also has great variety, a scary left hook and a crunching uppercut in his repertoire as well as a big right hand. And bangs to the body well, something kovalev’s been susceptible to before.

Add this to a solid defence. He rolls well, blocks well, has very good reflexes. And moves pretty well. He took next to no punishment against Sek.

You can tell just by looking at him that he is a lot better than Mark Prince for example, who wasn’t very good. So using Prince as an example why he’s going to get derailed isn’t very helpful.

These are all things you can see with your eyes and all factors that help bridge the gap in understanding that make Yarde a bettable proposition. Yes, we don’t know yet how Yarde will react when he’s hit - that’s the single biggest question mark. I can assure you if the bookies knew he was solid, this would be priced even more close.

Betting on Yarde is idiotic in the circumstances. He is stepping up several levels here and against one of the biggest punchers in boxing pound for pound. In Kovalevs hometown also.

Technically, you're betting on Yarde's performances translating up a few levels which you just cannot do here, especially given the slim margins you're dealing with when you are in with a puncher like Kovalev. How do you know Yardes reflexes or defence are good enough at this level. He could get starched in one round here. Kovalev is coming off a dominant performance which I scored a shut out over Alvarez. He threw 800+ punches, showed good movement, good power, kept it simple and controlled the fight. I wouldn't even pick Yarde over Alvarez.

I think people are betting on Yarde based on a dip in Kovalev's performance since 2017 (the rematch with Alvarez was an outlier Kov was highly impressive)

It is a tough one purely based on how Kov looked in his last bout you would lean towards a comfortable points win

[polecateddy]

If not Mark Prince, how about Jason Matthews? He looked a million dollars beating up domestic level opposition. He even demolished Ryan Rhodes in 2 rounds. Yet as soon as he went into decent European class he was found very wanting and retired immediately afterwards. I don’t think anyone can be particularly confident the same thing isn’t going to play out here. It’s very suspicious that Yarde was never matched with any other decent fighters prior to this. Either the camp or the matchmakers have clearly been incredibly cautious about who he’s been matched with since turning pro.

[Bard of Boxrec]

These aren’t very good reasons for claiming he has ‘next to no chance’.

Instead, call me crazy but I like to look at something as simple as ‘how good is Yarde?’ Well, you can get a picture of that without a murderer’s row of opposition. He is clearly very talented. agile, powerful, fast and accurate .

He also has an underused but very good jab that he needs to employ more, especially against a great jabber himself in Kovalev.

He also has great variety, a scary left hook and a crunching uppercut in his repertoire as well as a big right hand. And bangs to the body well, something kovalev’s been susceptible to before.

Add this to a solid defence. He rolls well, blocks well, has very good reflexes. And moves pretty well. He took next to no punishment against Sek.

You can tell just by looking at him that he is a lot better than Mark Prince for example, who wasn’t very good. So using Prince as an example why he’s going to get derailed isn’t very helpful.

These are all things you can see with your eyes and all factors that help bridge the gap in understanding that make Yarde a bettable proposition. Yes, we don’t know yet how Yarde will react when he’s hit - that’s the single biggest question mark. I can assure you if the bookies knew he was solid, this would be priced even more close.

Betting on Yarde is idiotic in the circumstances. He is stepping up several levels here and against one of the biggest punchers in boxing pound for pound. In Kovalevs hometown also.

Technically, you're betting on Yarde's performances translating up a few levels which you just cannot do here, especially given the slim margins you're dealing with when you are in with a puncher like Kovalev. How do you know Yardes reflexes or defence are good enough at this level. He could get starched in one round here. Kovalev is coming off a dominant performance which I scored a shut out over Alvarez. He threw 800+ punches, showed good movement, good power, kept it simple and controlled the fight. I wouldn't even pick Yarde over Alvarez.

Guess what? We don’t have all the answers. No one does. But sports bettors make money betting by exploiting gaps in information. If bookies priced everything correctly there would be no point betting as everyone would just lose out to the juice.

People betting on Yarde are betting on him because, yes, they believe the skills he shows can translate to the top level. To a certain degree, you can compare him at this stage to other prospects, how they looked fighting a similar level and what they went on to do. Or didn’t do, in the case of Mark Prince. To me, Yarde looks excellent, well in the ballpark of other prospects who ended up at world level. I’ve explained why I think that in the post above. He has a look of young Haye about him to me, and Haye’s ledger wasn’t too impressive going into the Mormeck fight.

Also factored in is the non negligible chance of kovalev having declined. I personally don’t believe he has too much, I agree he looked great in his last fight. But he probably doesn’t have quite the edge he did.

As with any market it all comes down to the price. Betting on Yarde certainly can’t be dismissed as ‘idiotic’ unless you are actually contextualising with a price. All I know is that the price of a Yarde stoppage in 1-6 opened at 7/1, and is now at 4/1. You can dismiss that as just armchair chuckleheads speculating if you want to, but a LOT of money is going on Yarde. I now have to think about whether I like that price enough to take it in context with the chance of Yarde using his skills that I believe he has, to win the fight.

[Kilburn]

Jason Matthews was very crude in comparison to Yarde. I don't recall many people predicting world level achievements for him, even after the unexpected Rhodes win.