Ratings - please read before commenting - Archived

[Manrae]

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      1    1 Middleweight         348759 Saul Alvarez                   MX  1637   1651 
**    2    4 Welterweight         447121 Terence Crawford               US  1489   1134 
      3    2 Middleweight         356831 Gennady Golovkin               KZ  1422   1254 
      4    3 Lightweight          659771 Vasiliy Lomachenko             UA  1301   1163 
      5    6 Welterweight         629465 Errol Spence Jr                US  1249   992.2
**    6   16 Cruiserweight        659772 Oleksandr Usyk                 UA  972.9  495.8
      7   13 Super Featherweight  553222 Miguel Berchelt                MX  917.3  520.6
**    8   26 Super Middleweight   631178 Callum Smith                   UK  890.2  367.2
      9    7 Featherweight        374624 Leo Santa Cruz                 MX  861.0  586.2
*    10    5 Welterweight           6129 Manny Pacquiao                 PH  837.5  1025 
     11    8 Light Heavyweight    505927 Sergey Kovalev                 RU  805.4  571.2
     12   14 Welterweight         472133 Shawn Porter                   US  780.4  516.0
**   13  109 Heavyweight          489762 Andy Ruiz Jr                   US  754.9  121.0
     14   17 Middleweight         432984 Daniel Jacobs                  US  709.9  477.1
     15   21 Welterweight         429442 Danny Garcia                   US  671.7  392.0
**   16   62 Light Heavyweight    679709 Oleksandr Gvozdyk              UA  660.8  203.5
**   17   34 Middleweight         471634 Jermall Charlo                 US  657.3  300.3
**   18   47 Light Heavyweight    703924 Dmitry Bivol                   RU  625.9  250.3
     19   37 Heavyweight          468841 Deontay Wilder                 US  622.3  291.3
**   20   43 Super Middleweight   588468 Chris Eubank Jr                UK  612.9  258.8
     21   20 Featherweight        479775 Gary Allen Russell Jr          US  609.9  413.8
     22   29 Super Featherweight  643387 Gervonta Davis                 US  604.3  332.8
     23   44 Heavyweight          659461 Anthony Joshua                 UK  604.0  256.7
     24   15 Featherweight        512777 Josh Warrington                UK  600.5  503.4
     25   25 Super Flyweight      467843 Juan Francisco Estrada         MX  599.3  368.8
     26   28 Welterweight         541777 Yordenis Ugas                  CU  599.0  336.4
     27   46 Cruiserweight        514537 Mairis Briedis                 LV  587.4  251.0
     28   27 Light Welterweight   632104 Jose Carlos Ramirez            US  578.8  362.0
     29   32 Light Welterweight   611370 Regis Prograis                 US  559.5  313.5
     30   33 Light Welterweight   725709 Josh Taylor                    UK  555.4  301.8
     31   55 Heavyweight          479205 Tyson Fury                     UK  549.5  218.7
     32   57 Light Middleweight   659924 Jaime Munguia                  MX  546.7  217.7
     33   24 Super Bantamweight   602423 Emanuel Navarrete              MX  544.0  372.7
*    34    9 Bantamweight         628407 Naoya Inoue                    JP  535.6  564.8
*    35   11 Welterweight         426053 Keith Thurman                  US  519.9  538.0
     36   56 Lightweight          563751 Richard Commey                 GH  509.2  218.4
**   37  129 Super Featherweight  740705 Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov          RU  506.5  107.9
     38   30 Super Flyweight      528191 Wisaksil Wangek                TH  501.4  322.2
*    39   12 Featherweight        499601 Carl Frampton                  UK  488.0  530.1
     40   22 Super Bantamweight   542148 Rey Vargas                     MX  487.0  377.6
**   41   83 Heavyweight          318081 Alexander Povetkin             RU  483.2  150.7
     42   35 Light Middleweight   457231 Erislandy Lara                 US  482.5  294.7
     43   79 Light Middleweight   536011 Julian Williams                US  481.9  155.4
     44   36 Middleweight         468433 Demetrius Andrade              US  469.7  293.9
*    45   10 Welterweight         364679 Mikey Garcia                   US  464.2  555.1
     46   61 Super Featherweight  367450 Andrew Cancio                  US  462.9  203.5
     47   40 Light Heavyweight    503963 Eleider Alvarez                CO  461.1  281.1
*    48   18 Bantamweight         611983 Luis Nery                      MX  443.3  458.7
     49   42 Light Heavyweight    509666 Gilberto Ramirez               MX  425.4  260.7
**   50  130 Heavyweight          569964 Dillian Whyte                  UK  421.6  106.6
**   51  148 Welterweight         499476 David Avanesyan                RU  416.0  96.00
     52   76 Light Middleweight   625960 Jarrett Hurd                   US  412.6  158.0
     53   58 Super Bantamweight   549073 Daniel Roman                   US  403.9  213.3
     54   41 Light Flyweight      692967 Ken Shiro                      JP  403.2  275.9
     55   39 Bantamweight          48243 Nonito Donaire                 PH  390.0  284.1
**   56  245 Middleweight         556657 Michael Zerafa                 AU  381.0  59.41
     57   49 Welterweight         314558 Amir Khan                      UK  379.7  238.8
*    58   19 Featherweight        629933 Oscar Valdez                   MX  374.3  420.2
     59   63 Lightweight          776269 Teofimo Lopez                  US  373.1  189.6
**   60  214 Welterweight         738032 Kudratillo Abdukakhorov        UZ  370.4  67.87
     61   74 Welterweight         684792 Sergey Lipinets                RU  369.9  159.7
**   62  260 Heavyweight          498837 Jarrell Miller                 US  367.3  56.80
     63   60 Light Middleweight   468475 Jessie Vargas                  US  366.8  205.9
**   64  128 Middleweight         657422 Ryota Murata                   JP  364.5  108.7
**   65  183 Heavyweight          528949 Luis Ortiz                     CU  363.6  78.92
     66   77 Light Heavyweight    610132 Jesse Hart                     US  360.7  157.2
**   67  137 Light Middleweight   574588 Tony Harrison                  US  359.7  99.98
     68  122 Light Heavyweight    290691 Jean Pascal                    CA  358.8  111.3
     69   45 Lightweight          459640 Lee Selby                      UK  356.4  256.4
     70  125 Light Middleweight   625137 Brian Carlos Castano           AR  353.7  110.5
     71   71 Light Welterweight   432621 Viktor Postol                  UA  351.4  162.2
     72  133 Light Heavyweight    497268 Badou Jack                     SE  347.8  102.9
     73   68 Lightweight          651514 Luke Campbell                  UK  345.0  164.8
     74   51 Light Welterweight   523667 Jose Zepeda                    US  343.4  230.8
     75   59 Bantamweight         359270 Zolani Tete                    ZA  343.1  212.4
*    76   23 Super Flyweight      483786 Kazuto Ioka                    JP  342.5  377.4
     77   90 Light Heavyweight    629463 Marcus Browne                  US  342.3  143.9
**   78  197 Heavyweight          511850 Kubrat Pulev                   BG  339.4  73.55
     79   81 Lightweight          741718 Devin Haney                    US  333.3  152.7
     80   89 Middleweight         691996 Sergiy Derevyanchenko          UA  332.4  144.8
     81   98 Lightweight          371746 Anthony Crolla                 UK  331.3  134.0
*    82   38 Light Middleweight   272717 Kell Brook                     UK  330.4  284.3
     83   54 Super Featherweight  562946 Tevin Farmer                   US  327.9  219.6
     84   82 Super Featherweight  140100 Miguel Roman                   MX  322.2  151.6
     85   52 Light Middleweight   433135 Jermell Charlo                 US  318.8  226.1
     86   70 Super Middleweight   482499 Billy Joe Saunders             UK  315.6  163.3
     87   99 Featherweight        665698 Can Xu                         CN  312.9  132.3
     88  147 Light Middleweight   723287 Carlos Adames                  DO  312.4  96.13
     89   75 Welterweight         455859 Adrien Broner                  US  312.3  159.0
**   90  180 Super Middleweight   545557 John Ryder                     UK  309.1  79.87
     91   53 Flyweight            666339 Kosei Tanaka                   JP  304.7  223.3
     92   48 Super Bantamweight   492989 Guillermo Rigondeaux           CU  304.0  247.4
**   93  255 Light Welterweight   352193 Pablo Cesar Cano               MX  303.4  57.28
     94  117 Light Welterweight   570403 Maurice Hooker                 US  300.9  114.1
*    95   31 Super Flyweight      215599 Donnie Nietes                  PH  294.1  321.5
     96   86 Light Middleweight   466535 Liam Smith                     UK  292.3  148.1
**   97  195 Super Middleweight   546589 Rocky Fielding                 UK  291.1  74.11
     98   73 Minimumweight        383177 Chayaphon Moonsri              TH  288.5  159.8
     99  119 Middleweight         635000 Jeff Horn                      AU  287.6  112.2
    100   64 Super Flyweight      613018 Khalid Yafai                   UK  286.5  186.4

All 3 posts look very interesting and extremely intriguing. I want to be the 1st person to say THANK YOU. Not because I agree or disagree with the changes, but because you're CONSTANTLY DEDICATED to TRYING new ideas and giving us more to consider and think about concerning boxing's historic past and future. Don't EVER let anyone tell you not to always try to do more, you have an incredible amount of diligence and determination, PLEASE know you are appreciated!

The only question I have is that it seems that defeating a boxer with a higher score no longer automatically places you above said fighter. For example, Ruiz and Joshua, or Horn and Zerafa. Is that a correct assumption?

[computerrank]

...
The only question I have is that it seems that defeating a boxer with a higher score no longer automatically places you above said fighter. For example, Ruiz and Joshua, or Horn and Zerafa. Is that a correct assumption?

Yes, within the Whole-History Ratings former and later bouts influence the rating of a boxer.

So a boxer with an upset win may need another confirming win of same quality to finally surpass an opponent in the rating.s

[Manrae]

...
The only question I have is that it seems that defeating a boxer with a higher score no longer automatically places you above said fighter. For example, Ruiz and Joshua, or Horn and Zerafa. Is that a correct assumption?

Yes, within the Whole-History Ratings former and later bouts influence the rating of a boxer.

So a boxer with an upset win may need another confirming win of same quality to finally surpass an opponent in the rating.s

Wow, that has me soooo excited to see more, I can't wait!

Thus far, how do you feel about the new algorithm?

[JCS]

Other than early career and journeymen...I don't think fighters fight often enough to support such a system .

[computerrank]

Other than early career and journeymen...I don't think fighters fight often enough to support such a system .

And why, Jason?

[JCS]

Other than early career and journeymen...I don't think fighters fight often enough to support such a system .

And why, Jason?

Given the matchmaking and schedules of experienced fighters.. I just feel like the incremental ratings are more appropriate. If we lived in a world where the matchmaking made sense and fighters fought often like in the past, I think the whole career system is better suited. These purely mathematical systems need frequent, consistent data.

[Manrae]

When can we expect the new ratings to be implemented?

[computerrank]

When can we expect the new ratings to be implemented?

Tests regarding the prediction quality are running.
Anyway, they will not be implemented in 2019.

[Manrae]

When can we expect the new ratings to be implemented?

Tests regarding the prediction quality are running.
Anyway, they will not be implemented in 2019.

I see, that's too bad. In the mean time, do you mind posting the current welterweight results with the new system like you did with the heavyweights? I'm just curious

[computerrank]

Tests regarding the prediction quality are running.
Anyway, they will not be implemented in 2019.

I see, that's too bad. In the mean time, do you mind posting the current welterweight results with the new system like you did with the heavyweights? I'm just curious

I will provide a link to the Whole-History Ratings.

[computerrank]

Tests regarding the prediction quality are running.
Anyway, they will not be implemented in 2019.

The raw prediction ratio for 5728 qualified bouts in 2015 based on the year's end ratings of 2014 (none of the additional 16 other factors included) is:

- 72.2 % for the current ratings
- 76.8 % for the Whole-History ratings

So I am quite surprised. This solution seems to be strict, simple, fast and effective.

[computerrank]

I see, that's too bad. In the mean time, do you mind posting the current welterweight results with the new system like you did with the heavyweights? I'm just curious

I will provide a link to the Whole-History Ratings.

http://151.boxrec.com/~martin/ratings.php

[BroughtonRulesRefuge]

- RE Current welter ratings: Boxrec currently has both Porter and Danny Garcia over Thurman who beat both of them with only one loss to an all time great compared to their multiple losses. That's intuitively wrong, so further:

#2 Spence
#3 Manny
#4 Porter
#5 Danny Garcia
#6 Yordenis Ugas with 4 freaking losses
#7 Thurman

And by the current point totals it looks like their fights had no bearing on their prefight rankings, but I don't recall the prefight rankings.

The highlighted above is a collective grouping of the same era in the same point in time with 2 identical official boxing results, Split Decisions for Spence vs Porter and Manny vs Thurman, yet completely different point outcomes by your formula:

Manny loses significant points while Thurman gains significant points

https://boxrec.com/en/event/788305/2353535

Spence gains nominal points while Porter gains nominal points.

https://boxrec.com/en/event/792079/2374294

Porter with two losses, one against Thurman started vs Spence with 771.3 points whereas Thurman who was undefeated and actually beat Porter could only start vs Manny with a scrawny 483.4 points.

Probably I'll hear some blah-blah about Thurman being inactive for 2 years, but he did have a comeback rust remover in January 2019 before fighting Manny, so all I can add is "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark."

Intuition is funny thing that we are born with at various levels. It makes drivers having a green light go sailing through an intersection without a care while grooving to their headphones, yet meanwhile just outside their distracted vision disaster comes barreling down on them, a drunk driver. The intuitive driver knows he best not press his luck and either jams the brakes or buries the throttle to escape, but it's amazing the number of people who suffer tragic consequences in thinking all is well because they have the legal right away.

[JCS]

Tests regarding the prediction quality are running.
Anyway, they will not be implemented in 2019.

The raw prediction ratio for 5728 qualified bouts in 2015 based on the year's end ratings of 2014 (none of the additional 16 other factors included) is:

- 72.2 % for the current ratings
- 76.8 % for the Whole-History ratings

So I am quite surprised. This solution seems to be strict, simple, fast and effective.

But as we know.. going strictly with prediction makes for some unhappy viewers and 'odd' results.

[computerrank]

The raw prediction ratio for 5728 qualified bouts in 2015 based on the year's end ratings of 2014 (none of the additional 16 other factors included) is:

- 72.2 % for the current ratings
- 76.8 % for the Whole-History ratings

So I am quite surprised. This solution seems to be strict, simple, fast and effective.

But as we know.. going strictly with prediction makes for some unhappy viewers and 'odd' results.

I didn't expect Whole-History ratings would be better predictive. I just wanted to see, whether they are at same level or worse.

The Whole-History ratings consider the results from a wider perspective and are more stable regarding odd outlier results. And they are more stable comparing boxers with more or less bouts per year. And there is no need for additional points. The update ratings program uses the old rating values as a starter and the program run time is down to about 1/2 of the current time needed.

A nice side result is, the Whole-History ratings also provide an estimator for the rating uncertainty.

I just generalized the Whole-History model to use detailed Boxrec results (including draws and decisions on points, bouts weighted regarding rounds boxed and points conversion between weight divisions). No points reduction for inactivity and missing opponent quality needed any longer.

Top career ratings seem to be a good measure for the all time ratings now.

[JCS]

But as we know.. going strictly with prediction makes for some unhappy viewers and 'odd' results.

I didn't expect Whole-History ratings would be better predictive. I just wanted to see, whether they are at same level or worse.

The Whole-History ratings consider the results from a wider perspective and are more stable regarding odd outlier results. And they are more stable comparing boxers with more or less bouts per year. And there is no need for additional points. The update ratings program uses the old rating values as a starter and the program run time is down to about 1/2 of the current time needed.

A nice side result is, the Whole-History ratings also provide an estimator for the rating uncertainty.

I just generalized the Whole-History model to use detailed Boxrec results (including draws and decisions on points, bouts weighted regarding rounds boxed and points conversion between weight divisions). No points reduction for inactivity and missing opponent quality needed any longer.

Top career ratings seem to be a good measure for the all time ratings now.

It seems like the all-time ratings would benefit from such a system... that much I agree with.

[computerrank]

- RE Current welter ratings: Boxrec currently has both Porter and Danny Garcia over Thurman who beat both of them with only one loss to an all time great compared to their multiple losses. That's intuitively wrong, so further:

#2 Spence
#3 Manny
#4 Porter
#5 Danny Garcia
#6 Yordenis Ugas with 4 freaking losses
#7 Thurman

And by the current point totals it looks like their fights had no bearing on their prefight rankings, but I don't recall the prefight rankings.

The highlighted above is a collective grouping of the same era in the same point in time with 2 identical official boxing results, Split Decisions for Spence vs Porter and Manny vs Thurman, yet completely different point outcomes by your formula:

Manny loses significant points while Thurman gains significant points

https://boxrec.com/en/event/788305/2353535

Spence gains nominal points while Porter gains nominal points.

https://boxrec.com/en/event/792079/2374294

Porter with two losses, one against Thurman started vs Spence with 771.3 points whereas Thurman who was undefeated and actually beat Porter could only start vs Manny with a scrawny 483.4 points.

Probably I'll hear some blah-blah about Thurman being inactive for 2 years, but he did have a comeback rust remover in January 2019 before fighting Manny, so all I can add is "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark."

Intuition is funny thing that we are born with at various levels. It makes drivers having a green light go sailing through an intersection without a care while grooving to their headphones, yet meanwhile just outside their distracted vision disaster comes barreling down on them, a drunk driver. The intuitive driver knows he best not press his luck and either jams the brakes or buries the throttle to escape, but it's amazing the number of people who suffer tragic consequences in thinking all is well because they have the legal right away.

You already mentioned the 2 points:

- Thurmann lost half of his points due to his inactivity
- The loss of Thurman was closer so he won points and Pacquiao lost some less due to his additional points
- The loss of Porter was wider to he won less points and Spence won some too due to his additional points

[Manrae]

I will provide a link to the Whole-History Ratings.

http://151.boxrec.com/~martin/ratings.php

Thanks!

[Manrae]

Kell Brook as #1 at 154 will be controversial

[JCS]

Kell Brook as #1 at 154 will be controversial

Whoa, yeah that's bad... and it is probably because Zerafa beat Horn afterward.

I told you guys that this isn't the way to go...

[JCS]

Kell Brook as #1 at 154 will be controversial

Considering the two fighters that beat him it’s not that crazy.

It is, because he didn't do anything directly to earn it.. he earned it based on the achievements of those he fought, after he fought them. If Zerafa didn't beat Horn just recently, Brook is not #1.

[computerrank]

It is, because he didn't do anything directly to earn it.. he earned it based on the achievements of those he fought, after he fought them. If Zerafa didn't beat Horn just recently, Brook is not #1.

That’s as maybe. All I’m saying is I wouldn’t be surprised if Brook was actually the best in the division however he got there.

I will test this.

[computerrank]

...
The system is virtually made for an all-time peak. The fact that it has better predictability for current ratings, by quite a margin, is remarkable.

Has any system you have tried in the past improved on 76.8%?

Not for the raw ratings based on rating points only.
Boxrec currently uses a prediction system with 16 additional factors. This yields around 86% percent.

[computerrank]

Not for the raw ratings based on rating points only.
Boxrec currently uses a prediction system with 16 additional factors. This yields around 86% percent.

So would you expect Whole History to beat the current system once the additional factors are added?

Also is the current system the one with the best predictability ever or did you have to sacrifice some predictability to keep people happy such as the winner always jumps above the loser?

Current system is best raw predictability. Setting a winner above the loser doesn't influence the predictability in a measurable manner.

Yes, I expect the Whole-History ratings to top the current ratings, when the additional factors are included.

[computerrank]

That’s as maybe. All I’m saying is I wouldn’t be surprised if Brook was actually the best in the division however he got there.

I will test this.

Yes, Brook would be #2 only, if Zerafa wouldn't have defeated Horn.