Ratings - please read before commenting - Archived

[jujigatame]

I still long for the day when we can get the more traditional system alongside the WHR system. WHR is an interesting alternative and I appreciate that it tries to do something different, but I think most folks looking for a computerized boxing rating system are looking for the more traditional system where you can track pre/post-bout ratings. It's just more intuitive.

[computerrank]

I still long for the day when we can get the more traditional system alongside the WHR system. WHR is an interesting alternative and I appreciate that it tries to do something different, but I think most folks looking for a computerized boxing rating system are looking for the more traditional system where you can track pre/post-bout ratings. It's just more intuitive.

Yes, the basic rules of WHR are very simple and convincing, but the results are not that intuitive ...

[computerrank]

...
For instance, you can't wholesale dump on a boxer's rating for not having a quality win in 18 months. Had that boxer's career and sanctioning bodies honored BoxRec's rating system, you can bet they'd try harder to schedule that decent challenger within that window, rather than wait a week or two after the deadline... for example.

A way might be to introduce a hard or soft limit for the maximum/minimum win/loss probabilities at a certain limit value (e.g. 95 to 90% or 5 to 10%). That would limit the impact of setups and mismatches.

[computerrank]

...
Second, you don't have to believe me because I know I don't have any evidence, but I am 99% certain that for a long time Taylor was #2 behind Ramirez, and this just changed in the last several weeks.

I digged in old logs - and your 99% memory was right, jujigatame. Taylor was ranked #1 until 2020-01-01.

Then the winner-above-loser rule was extended in 2 steps
- from 12 months to 18 months and
- from regarding direct opponents only to regarding all indirect opponents in the chain.

And Taylor dropped to #2 on 2020-11-01, and to #3 on 2020-11-29.

[jujigatame]

...
Second, you don't have to believe me because I know I don't have any evidence, but I am 99% certain that for a long time Taylor was #2 behind Ramirez, and this just changed in the last several weeks.

I digged in old logs - and your 99% memory was right, jujigatame. Taylor was ranked #1 until 2020-01-01.

Then the winner-above-loser rule was extended in 2 steps
- from 12 months to 18 months and
- from regarding direct opponents only to regarding all indirect opponents in the chain.

And Taylor dropped to #2 on 2020-11-01, and to #3 on 2020-11-29.

Well first let me thank you for confirming that I haven't gone completely insane.

How did the winner-over-loser rule change have such an effect? Taylor is undefeated so I wouldn't think it would effect him that much. I also don't get why Taylor suddenly dropped below Zepeda in November even though Zepeda's last win was in October.

[jujigatame]

Ahh Taylor just dropped to #4!!

Am I doing this with my mind?

[JCS]

Ahh Taylor just dropped to #4!!

Am I doing this with my mind?

Pretty amazing sorcery you're performing...

[computerrank]

Ahh Taylor just dropped to #4!!

Am I doing this with my mind?

Pretty amazing sorcery you're performing...

... and you got him back to #3, black magic

Taylor's Boxrec rating is higher than his WHR rating due to the winner-above-loser rule (compare their Boxrec ratings and their WHR ratings shown in their records). Taylor's rating is tied to Prograis' rating. Taylor dropped, then Prograis dropped and so Taylor dropped again too.

[jujigatame]

It may be worth examining some of this system if a guy who is consensus #1 on basically every other website gradually slips from #1 to #3 and then to #4 and then back to #3 over a 3 month period despite not having fought in that time and his chief rivals not having fought in that time either.

Like there may be some mathematical justification for it but it definitely doesn't jibe with the common perception of how boxing rankings should work.

[computerrank]

It may be worth examining some of this system if a guy who is consensus #1 on basically every other website gradually slips from #1 to #3 and then to #4 and then back to #3 over a 3 month period despite not having fought in that time and his chief rivals not having fought in that time either.

Like there may be some mathematical justification for it but it definitely doesn't jibe with the common perception of how boxing rankings should work.

Maybe the consensus is Taylor is #1. But he and Prograis did nothing for it recently. Both recent bouts outside of 1/10 of their own ratings. So they will have again to achieve it. Currently that is only a guess.

[computerrank]

Just in insight into some last findings.

I tested a boxing ranking with very simple, classic ladder system- the results surprises me a really - no points system

enter the list:
- a boxer enters the ranking with
-- a win against a non ranked opponent, and is appended at the last rank
-- a win or draw against a ranked opponent

moves:
- a winner is inserted just before the loser, if he was ranked behind before
- in case of a draw, the better ranked boxer keeps his rank, and the boxer ranked behind is ranked in the middle of the better ranked boxer and his old rank

quality management:
- for quality management a bout is regarded as valid, if
-- the loser was not ranked lower than (the winner's old rank + 2) * 4
-- all draws

penalties:
- if a boxer had no bout within 18 months, the boxer is set inactive with old rank stored
- if a boxer had no valid bouts within 18 months, his rank is dropped
-- to (old rank*1.3 +1), and a new 18-month-period starts.
- if an inactive boxer fights again, his rank is reactivated, but the rank is dropped
-- to (old rank*(1.3 * * 18-month-periods) +1), before the new bout

And here the results for Heavyweight and Light Welterweight - date of last valid bout:

Code: Select all

    1 2019-12-07 Anthony Joshua
    2 2019-12-07 Andy Ruiz Jr
    3 2020-02-22 Tyson Fury
    4 2020-08-22 Alexander Povetkin
    5 2020-02-22 Deontay Wilder
    6 2020-08-22 Dillian Whyte
    7 2020-10-31 Oleksandr Usyk
    8 2020-10-31 Dereck Chisora
    9 2019-11-23 Luis Ortiz
   10 2020-02-29 Joseph Parker
   11 2019-12-07 Michael Hunter
   12 2020-01-26 Carlos Takam
   13 2020-03-07 Robert Helenius
   14 2020-03-07 Adam Kownacki
   15 2019-07-20 Artur Szpilka
   16 2020-02-22 Charles Martin
   17 2020-02-22 Gerald Washington
   18 2020-11-07 Filip Hrgovic
   19 2019-12-07 Eric Molina
   20 2020-11-27 Tony Yoka
   21 2020-09-25 Johann Duhaupas
   22 2020-11-11 Kubrat Pulev
   23 2020-11-27 Christian Hammer
   24 2020-12-12 Martin Bakole
   25 2020-12-12 Hughie Fury
   26 2020-12-12 Mariusz Wach
   27 2019-07-20 Oscar Rivas
   28 2020-11-28 Joe Joyce
   29 2020-09-19 Efe Ajagba
   30 2020-09-20 Ali Eren Demirezen

   
    1 2019-10-26 Josh Taylor
    2 2019-10-26 Regis Prograis
    3 2020-08-29 Jose Carlos Ramirez
    4 2020-08-29 Viktor Postol
    5 2019-09-07 Julius Indongo
    6 2020-10-03 Jose Zepeda
    7 2020-04-06 Eduard Troyanovsky
    8 2020-10-03 Ivan Baranchyk
    9 2019-12-12 Sandor Martin
   10 2019-10-19 Lewis Ritson
   11 2020-03-07 Robbie Davies Jnr
   12 2019-12-13 Fedor Papazov
   13 2019-12-13 Michal Chudecki
   14 2020-06-09 Jose Miguel Borrego
   15 2019-11-22 Jack Catterall
   16 2019-11-22 Timo Schwarzkopf
   17 2020-09-30 Ohara Davies
   18 2020-09-02 Akeem Ennis-Brown
   19 2020-09-02 Philip Bowes
   20 2019-11-23 Sean Dodd
   21 2020-12-13 Michal Syrowatka
   22 2019-11-23 Tom Farrell
   23 2020-02-22 Petros Ananyan
   24 2020-02-22 Subriel Matias
   25 2020-12-11 Jeremias Nicolas Ponce
   26 2020-12-11 Jonathan Jose Eniz
   27 2020-09-30 Tyrone McKenna
   28 2020-02-21 Mohamed Mimoune
   29 2020-08-29 Sam Maxwell
   30 2020-08-29 Joe Hughes

[JCS]

Yeah... the issues with this kind of system are ugly..


#500 gets a lucky split decision over a top ten guy and he's forever a top contender.

[margaret thatcher]

tom farrell is a british area level fighter (below british title level) who is 276 on boxrec. him being near the world top 20 would be rather shocking!

indongo shouldnt be near the top 5 either at this point



the hw list, outside the whole business with fury being 3, actually doesnt look so bad

[computerrank]

tom farrell is a british area level fighter (below british title level) who is 276 on boxrec. him being near the world top 20 would be rather shocking!

indongo shouldnt be near the top 5 either at this point



the hw list, outside the whole business with fury being 3, actually doesnt look so bad

A bit slower step-up and more drop for the loser would keep Farrell outside of top 100 and Indingo at #11

Code: Select all

    1 2019-10-26 Josh Taylor
    2 2019-10-26 Regis Prograis
    3 2020-08-29 Jose Carlos Ramirez
    4 2019-12-12 Sandor Martin
    5 2020-08-29 Viktor Postol
    6 2020-09-30 Ohara Davies
    7 2020-04-06 Eduard Troyanovsky
    8 2020-10-03 Jose Zepeda
    9 2020-04-05 Jack Catterall
   10 2020-10-03 Ivan Baranchyk
   11 2019-09-07 Julius Indongo
   12 2019-07-27 Maurice Hooker
   13 2020-09-30 Tyrone McKenna
   14 2020-12-05 Cletus Seldin
   15 2019-09-09 Marcelino Nicolas Lopez
   16 2019-07-27 Andrea Scarpa
   17 2020-02-21 Mohamed Mimoune
   18 2020-10-17 Lewis Ritson
   19 2020-10-17 Arnold Barboza Jr
   20 2020-10-17 Alex Saucedo
   21 2019-11-22 Jean Carlos Torres
   22 2019-11-09 Yazid Amghar
   23 2020-09-02 Akeem Ennis-Brown
   24 2019-10-19 Robbie Davies Jnr
   25 2020-08-29 Sam Maxwell
   26 2020-12-11 Jeremias Nicolas Ponce
   27 2020-01-07 Henry Lundy
   28 2019-10-25 Steve Claggett
   29 2019-12-05 Ismael Barroso
   30 2019-09-26 Batyrzhan Jukembayev

[JCS]

Who is Sandor Martin?? :)

[computerrank]

Who is Sandor Martin?? :)

Yes, it is hopeless

[JCS]

Can you ease up on the minimum win quality penalty a bit, w/ the current system and see what that output looks like?

[gregregegg]

Dont know if this is the correct spot for this but why isnt alen Babic in a division at the moment? He has been fighting at heavyweight, shouldent he be put into heavyweight division?

[margaret thatcher]

Dont know if this is the correct spot for this but why isnt alen Babic in a division at the moment? He has been fighting at heavyweight, shouldent he be put into heavyweight division?

boxrec isnt ranking the fighters in the wbc bridgerweight rankings

[JCS]

Dont know if this is the correct spot for this but why isnt alen Babic in a division at the moment? He has been fighting at heavyweight, shouldent he be put into heavyweight division?

boxrec isnt ranking the fighters in the wbc bridgerweight rankings

Strange decision.

[margaret thatcher]

some talk from big j about it here

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=94835&p=5497163&hil ... t#p5497163

[jujigatame]

Did you ditch the "winner over loser" thing? It looks like Selby has risen above Kambosos despite neither having a fight recently.

[computerrank]

Did you ditch the "winner over loser" thing? It looks like Selby has risen above Kambosos despite neither having a fight recently.

There was no rule change. But the last update seems to have been faulty.
I just triggered an instant update and it looks fine now ?

[jujigatame]

Yea looks like it just fixed itself in the last few hours.

[Offthehook]

Respectively computerrank how the hell did zelfa Barrett who was given a gift decision tonight jump to number 2 in the uk?!

Surely the system
Should account for robberies

Also again respectively, zelfa had 11.12 points and went to 23.12 points when kiko only had 5.234 points prior? I mean how is that even possible?

Please rectify this when you have time, we all appreciate what u do, but I’m sure you know this isn’t right.