Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev - November 2, 2019

[ewenhay]

Very strange. You’re aware that only 30% of the votes are for a Kovalev stoppage yet it seemed like you had discovered that a stoppage was unlikely? Or have I misinterpreted your initial comment?

Could you please elaborate? I think you may have misinterpreted my initial comments.

My interpretation of the results of the voting poll is that the outcome Canelo-Kovalev bout is pretty much considered a 50-50 fight, with the Mexican being regarded as the favourite by only the slightest of margins (i.e. 52% vs. 47%).

Also, it seems that more people are convinced that Kovalev wins by stoppage than they are about a Canelo win by decision or KO (i.e. 30% vs. 26%), making it the most popular choice of the available polling options.

And what is your problem with that? Surely all the unanswered questions would indicate that the results of a poll would reflect all those uncertainties?

[Enlightened-One]

Could you please elaborate? I think you may have misinterpreted my initial comments.

My interpretation of the results of the voting poll is that the outcome Canelo-Kovalev bout is pretty much considered a 50-50 fight, with the Mexican being regarded as the favourite by only the slightest of margins (i.e. 52% vs. 47%).

Also, it seems that more people are convinced that Kovalev wins by stoppage than they are about a Canelo win by decision or KO (i.e. 30% vs. 26%), making it the most popular choice of the available polling options.

And what is your problem with that? Surely all the unanswered questions would indicate that the results of a poll would reflect all those uncertainties?

Did I say I had a problem with that? I was asked a question and replied accordingly.

And what is your problem with that?

[DrDuke]

It'll be pretty funny to look at all aforementioned stats after Kovalev stops Canelo. And he really can do it. All that happened to him is in the past. He looks transformed with Buddy at his corner. Even in his last fight he survived the onslaught. I believe, he'll use his best qualities now and stop Canelo. Too big and and too classy for the Redhead.

[margaret thatcher]

Canelo essentially moving up 2 divisions never facing a top smw or lhw is a comfy betting fave, a big fave in the prediction game, a solid 70-30 fave in the brit section poll, and even a fave here, in general people are with him much more than they are Kov

Kov winning is clearly an upset going by consensus, can Krusher overcome the doubts and the odds??? Can the underdog prevail?? Or will mighty Saul continue his winning ways

[margaret thatcher]

4:1 betting fave is Canelo
20:5 in the prediction game for Canelo
27-11 in the Brit poll for Canelo
39-34 in this poll for Canelo


Krusher needs the upset!!

[Jeff_lacy_ko]

Odds are a reflection of reality that if canelo will win close rounds with the judges (or in byrds case rounds he gets his butt kicked in)

Unless he is completely beat up he gets the decision

[Ruthless-RKO]

[Ruthless-RKO]

[Ruthless-RKO]

[Ruthless-RKO]

[margaret thatcher]

Hell, if he can bash Kov and Bert like some suggest he can, go for it cinnamon

[Ruthless-RKO]

[Ruthless-RKO]

[sturm vogel]

Odds are a reflection of reality that if canelo will win close rounds with the judges (or in byrds case rounds he gets his butt kicked in)

Unless he is completely beat up he gets the decision

Correct. Either Kovalev completely destroys Canelo or he loses. One or two knockdowns and dominating rounds is not sufficient to this Vegas operation and that is what the odds reflect.

[siablo14]

7/2 Kovalev is the wrong price.

That 8th round vs Yarde may well have been Krusher's last "trip to the well," but, still 7/2 ?!
I'm sure even those picking Canelo would give Sergey better than 22 % chance.

Everybody knows that since Canelo has become the A side:
1. He always wins the close rounds.
2. if you can't KO Canelo, then the best you can get is a draw.

The odds are pretty accurate when you factor in those points.

[Evander]

What did he do ?

Canelo claims he only weighs between 178lbs to 180lbs between bouts, which is supposedly typical for middleweights, since it’s normal for fighters to be slightly heavier out-of-competition than their rehydrated ring-weight.

However, he’s a pretty big guy and I feel he is likely understating the mark a bit. He is probably closer to 190lbs between bouts. So I highly doubt Canelo has needed to do much to compete at 175lbs, other than refraining from cutting much weight.

The figures I’m quoting may seem a tad unrealistic, but you’ve got fighters like Jarret Hurd who immediately blew up to 190lbs six weeks after his 154lbs fight against Erislandy Lara.

Terence Crawford posted a tweet of his weighing scales illustrating the fact that he weighed 177lbs between training camps whilst competing at 140lbs.

And let’s not forget that only one week after his 143lbs catch-weight fight against Danny Garcia, Lamont Peterson rehydrated to a massive 182lbs.

So I’m pretty sure something similar has happened to Canelo. He wouldn’t have needed to take any dubious substances to quickly gain weight, since it's likely he’s always been huge between fights.

Incidentally, Sergey Kovalev’s rehydration weight on fight night against Canelo will be around the 190lbs mark, but I’m confident the Russian could weigh approaching 210lbs between bouts, which means that the Mexican is still facing an opponent that is naturally much bigger than himself.

How do you know Jarret Hurd went up to 190 after the Lara fight ?
I can believe he did because he had a big frame anyway.

[Evander]

Just curious

[Evander]

From what I saw of it, today's press conference looked slick, but did little to wet the appetite for potential viewers.
It's a high profile boxing match right ... so let's get it on .
The only knockout served here was the blonde on the right.

[Enlightened-One]

Canelo claims he only weighs between 178lbs to 180lbs between bouts, which is supposedly typical for middleweights, since it’s normal for fighters to be slightly heavier out-of-competition than their rehydrated ring-weight.

However, he’s a pretty big guy and I feel he is likely understating the mark a bit. He is probably closer to 190lbs between bouts. So I highly doubt Canelo has needed to do much to compete at 175lbs, other than refraining from cutting much weight.

The figures I’m quoting may seem a tad unrealistic, but you’ve got fighters like Jarret Hurd who immediately blew up to 190lbs six weeks after his 154lbs fight against Erislandy Lara.

Terence Crawford posted a tweet of his weighing scales illustrating the fact that he weighed 177lbs between training camps whilst competing at 140lbs.

And let’s not forget that only one week after his 143lbs catch-weight fight against Danny Garcia, Lamont Peterson rehydrated to a massive 182lbs.

So I’m pretty sure something similar has happened to Canelo. He wouldn’t have needed to take any dubious substances to quickly gain weight, since it's likely he’s always been huge between fights.

Incidentally, Sergey Kovalev’s rehydration weight on fight night against Canelo will be around the 190lbs mark, but I’m confident the Russian could weigh approaching 210lbs between bouts, which means that the Mexican is still facing an opponent that is naturally much bigger than himself.

How do you know Jarret Hurd went up to 190 after the Lara fight ?
I can believe he did because he had a big frame anyway.

[Evander]

How do you know Jarret Hurd went up to 190 after the Lara fight ?
I can believe he did because he had a big frame anyway.

Cool

[Evander]

My guess is Canelo can only carry so much.
How active will Kovalev be at 36 years old ?

[Thomastearns]

The perfect cash-in fight for Kovalev. His camp gets a great payday and Canelo gets the win to 'consolidate' his claims of greatness.

Everyone's happy, aren't they?

Well, everyone will be apart from the Kovalev supporters who actually believed their man was ever in with a chance to win.

I'd enjoy seeing Kovalev upset the odds and pull one last iron out of the fire, but unless he's on something even more special than what Canelo is on, it's not going to happen.

Any simple 'eye' test shows how different the Kovalev of today is compared to the one of 10 years ago. Timing is everything - do you think Canelo Alvarez would enter the ring against the Sergey Kovalev who fought the hapless Nathan Cleverly?

[margaret thatcher]

Kov improved as a boxer after the Clev fight--to me in that fight you just see him totally overpowering Clev, but he looks sloppier there, or like he just didn't give Clev any respect. I think the top level skills are there and you can still see the good jab for example, but it's a question of mentality and physicality now.

Still, he schooled a solid E Alvarez in the rematch and dominated Yarde apart from 2 rounds and has never actually been down to the body, he's still a top 5 LHW and no shot to sh1tter. It will be a very nice win for Canelo if he wins, especially as a guy who not too long ago was at 154 taking 9 rounds vs Smith and arguably not stopping any world class opponent from 154 up. I think Nelo will win, but it's possible they've miscalculated here

[margaret thatcher]

4:1 betting fave is Canelo
20:5 in the prediction game for Canelo
27-11 in the Brit poll for Canelo
39-34 in this poll for Canelo


Krusher needs the upset!!

Update! Most 'experts' on the ESPN poll go Canelo by stoppage. 11-2 overall plus Ward saying Canelo KO in a seperate article:
https://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/ ... ctions-win

Summary of the article : "body shots body shots, body body body"

Will be a hearty upset if Kov somehow does it!

[oogiebe]

4:1 betting fave is Canelo
20:5 in the prediction game for Canelo
27-11 in the Brit poll for Canelo
39-34 in this poll for Canelo


Krusher needs the upset!!

Update! Most 'experts' on the ESPN poll go Canelo by stoppage. 11-2 overall plus Ward saying Canelo KO in a seperate article:
https://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/ ... ctions-win

Summary of the article : "body shots body shots, body body body"

Will be a hearty upset if Kov somehow does it!

who ya' got?